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[politicallore]

Double post, sorry!

www.politicallore.com

[Seen the light]

1. People are being fucking stupid with this

Do people making these predictions REALLY think that every state is going to be called immediately? Because of turnout, it's going to take several hours to call states like NC and VA one way or the other unless it's an absolute blowout.

(No offense to you, I'm just seeing this a lot and it's bugging me.)

[Happyhippychick]

2. My prediction. The polls close 7:30 in VA. If Obama landslides it, we can all go to sleep.

If he wins by 3 or 4 points, bed time by 10. If he loses, it will be a longer night but he'll still win.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. If this were 1992, the networks would call it based on exit polls.

They don't do that anymore, so they'll wait for a while.

However, this will be my estimate.

Indiana and Kentucky close at 6. Kentucky will be called for McCain, Indiana will be too close to call.

At 7, McCain will be up 8-0 on Obama.

The polls that close at 7 will be:

Georgia, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia

I believe Vermont will be called for Obama. South Carolina & New Hampshire will be too early to call and Virginia and Georgia will be too close to call.

That puts McCain at 8, Obama at 4.

Polls that close at 7:30: Ohio, West Virginia. Ohio will be too close to call, West Virginia too early to call.

At around 7:45, the networks will call South Carolina for McCain and New Hampshire for Obama.

That puts McCain at 16, Obama at 7.

Virginia, Georgia and Ohio will be too close to call.

At 8, the following states' polls close: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee

This will shift the race dramatically.

McCain will be projected in the following states:

Alabama
Oklahoma
Tennessee

Mississippi will be too early to call.

Obama will be projected in the following states:

Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Illinois
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
New Jersey

Pennsylvania will be too early to call, Florida too close to call.

That puts the race now at 99-43 for Obama at about 8:10 EST.

At 8:25, McCain will be projected the winner in West Virginia & Mississippi.

So the following states will be too close or too early to call:

Indiana, Georgia, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania.

At 8:25, right before Arkansas and NC polls close, Obama will be at 99 electoral votes, McCain at 54.

The 8:30 polls close. Arkansas is called for McCain, North Carolina is too close to call.

Obama stays at 99, McCain is at 60.

10 minutes after 8:30, Pennsylvania will be called for Obama and Georgia called for McCain.

Obama is now at 120, McCain at 75.

It's now too close to call in Indiana, Virginia, Ohio and Florida.

Shortly before 9 EST, however, Virginia is called for Obama.

Obama now stands at 133, McCain at 75.

Polls in a bunch of states then close at 9.

McCain is projected the winner in the following:

Kansas
Louisiana
Nebraska
Texas
Wyoming

Obama is projected the winner in the following:

New York
Minnesota
Rhode Island
Wisconsin

South Dakota & New Mexico are too early to call, Arizona and Colorado are too close to call. The story at this point is how McCain is struggling in his home state. Also, Obama's lead in the electoral college balloons to 188-132.

At around 9:30, New Mexico is called for Obama, South Dakota for McCain. That puts Obama at 193, McCain at 135.

Three and a half hours after polls closed, Indiana is projected for Barack Obama. The news now shifts to, "we now know who our next president will be" as Obama leads 204-135.

The states yet to be called:

Ohio
Florida
North Carolina
Colorado
Missouri

Right before polls close in the western half of the country, the network will project Obama as the victor in Colorado. Nearly an hour after polls closed there. Obama now leads 213-135.

Polls close in 5 states.

McCain is projected the winner in the following:

Utah

Obama is projected the winner in the following:

Iowa

Montana, Nevada and North Dakota are too close or too early to call.

Obama now leads 220-140. McCain announces he will hold a rally soon. Obama will wait until California's votes come in.

At this point, three hours after polls closed, Ohio is called for Obama. Two and a half hours after polls closed in Florida, it is called for Obama as well. With both states, he now sits at 267 electoral votes, three away from 270.

Right before the 10:00 hour, McCain is projected the winner in North Dakota and Montana. Obama is then declared the winner in Nevada, putting him over 270 electoral votes at roughly 9:50 EST.

Polls then close in 5 states.

McCain is projected in:

Idaho

Obama is projected in:

California
Oregon
Washington
Hawaii

Arizona is also finally called for McCain.

And at 10:15 EST, Obama has 349 electoral votes, McCain 160.

Around 10:30, North Carolina is called for Obama. And around 11:00 EST, Obama is projected the winner in Missouri, not that it matters.

Alaska, an hour later, is declared for McCain.

Obama wins 375-163.