Don't be discouraged if McCain is up 36-3 in electoral votes 45 minutes into counting

[Seen the light]

7: Polls close in Vermont, Virginia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Georgia.
7:30: Polls close in Ohio, West Virginia, and North Carolina.

The only solid call for Obama out of those states is going to be Vermont. There's a chance that, even in an Obama blowout, that Kentucky/South Carolina/West Virginia could be called almost immediately with Georgia following soon thereafter (not making this as my official prediction, just saying it's a possibility). There's a very good chance that Virginia/Indiana/Ohio/North Carolina to be left uncalled for at least an hour or two EVEN IF THEY EVENTUALLY GO TO SENATOR OBAMA!

If this happens, McCain will be sitting with a 36-3 advantage going into the next poll closures at 8pm EST. Please don't freak out if that happens. It won't mean a thing if these very solidly red states are called for Senator McCain. I guarantee you that Senator Obama won't be freaking out if that's the case, in fact, I wouldn't be surprised if he's not expecting to be down for the first hour. It's the hours that will follow that will be very pleasant to watch.

Just don't freak out early on. When I ran cross country back in high school, I was horrible. Just horrible. I came in dead last once out of 70+ runners. But one day, I told my dad I was going to sprint as fast as I could at the start of the race so I could be out in front and he could take a great photo of me in the lead over all of these other amazing runners. However, that was just a snapshot in time and I quickly fell back to the back.

That's what we very well may see on Tuesday. Don't freak out about it PLEASE.

[BrklynLiberal]

1. It is just not right to post results for each state as polls close.

Nothing should be posted until all the polls are closed.

Early results influence later voters...it is just not right.

[Seen the light]

2. I KNOW it's going to influence DU

Assuming the site is still functional at that time, I'm already prepared to see doom and gloom if this happens, despite the fact it will mean NOTHING and that an Obama landslide could still very well be in the works.

[BrklynLiberal]

16. Someone on the West Coast sees that Obama already has over 270 EVs, he might

figure..why bother to go out and vote. It's done. This kind of action could affect the final total of popular votes..and it could make a difference in the local elections that he would not be voting in.
I am not saying that this reaction would be overwhelming...but if every vote counts equally, there should be no results posted until ALL the voters have had a chance to express their choices.

[quakerboy]

7. I find it hard to believe

I mean, as an intellectual idea, I will admit it as a possibility, even a probability.

But on a gut level, it makes NO sense to me. Who is going to be so apathetic about the race until literally the last hours that they will change their minds about voting at that point based on whats happening in a totally different state thousands of miles away?

Then again, I just don't get people who would consider not voting in the first place. Hell, I research and vote in off off years on measures that have no direct connection to my life.

[musicblind]

8. You know I never seriously thought about that but you just might be right.

I live in NC. So we are Eastern Time. I never thought of how voters in Cali might be effected by knowing the results of states on the east coast.

That seems almost as twisted as the Electoral College.

... hmmm.

[crossroads]

9. Yes... it does and it should not be done!

[Submariner]

3. I thought there was a law that exit polls could not be published

by the press until ALL the polls close?

[book_worm]

10. As soon as the polls close in the states just as in the primaries the networks can call the states

based on exit polls and early voting. If the exits are close then they will wait and see what the raw vote shows.

[Waiting For Everyman]

11. The last state closes at 1:00 am EST - Alaska.

I think it applies to not reporting a state until its own closing. But I'd expect this time that the media will be slower than usual to predict them anyway.

[Waiting For Everyman]

4. You're exactly right.

And I'm glad you posted this. I looked at the closing times recently too, and saw the same thing, an thought of people getting unnecessarily discouraged by that.

Prior to this year, I hadn't really paid enough attention myself to notice that the early returns are predictably Repub.

[Schulzz]

5. I think you are right.

I don't know if WV and GA will be called immediately - especially GA will take some time in my opinion - but I think many people are underestimating the time it will take until the states with close results are called. For example, VA, NC, OH, FL, IN, MO could take several hours. Especially if turnout will meet expectations.

If GA is too close too call when the polls close, but McCain is ahead in EVs, people should take a tight race in GA as a VERY postive sign. The same thing can be said about IN, if the first results are close - polls in NW Indiana will close one hour later - it is a very good sign, because Gary will be big for Obama. You will have to read between the lines and not just look at the early EV count.

[book_worm]

6. I think Indiana, Ohio, NC and GA will be "too close to call" but VA will be called for Obama.

but you are right it's nothing to panic ove--because states like NC, IN, and GA being "too close" is actually a big achievement for Obama.

[Awsi Dooger]

14. Virginia won't be called immediately for Obama

The networks are cautious and don't call immediately if the margin is 10ish or lower. Virginia is not going to be a blowout.

[book_worm]

17. you may be right, we will see.

At the least I believe it will be "too early to call" rather than "too close to call."

[Phoonzang]

12. I'm seriously going to need to start drinking the minute I get off work.

If I don't I'm going to have some kind of breakdown.

[yellowcanine]

13. I think you need to give us a little more credit than that. Everyone understands that the very

early results are just that - very early results. The only thing which should cause concern is if all the battleground states start dropping for McCain - which is highly unlikely so nothing to worry about there either.

[dontforgetpoland]

15. I'll also like to remind people not to be discouraged if you see Obama losing early tab in states

In 2006 Senates races, Jim Webb (D) was behind Geroge Allen (R) by ~3.5% even after 60% of all precincts in VA were already counted. Webb was even down by 2% after 90% of precincts has been reported. Webb has able to squeak by Allen after ~99.9% precincst has reported in.
In Missouri (were there is no early voting), Claire Mccaskill (D) was losing to Jim Talent (R) by ~2.5% after 70% prencinct has been reported. All of the KC precinct were not counted until later in the evening. Mccaskill won by 2.4%.

Remember that most urban and populated areas are usually calculated after rural areas calculations. Many times county will be ordered by a judge to extend poll times and no votes can be counted until polls are closed for that area.

So do not be discourage (especially people on the west coast) if you see Obama losing early in key states.

[RL3AO]

18. Someone on here said the media wouldn't call any states until 9pm PST

Can anyone confirm which way it is?

[Seen the light]

22. No, they'll call them as soon as all polls are closed in the state they're projecting n/t

[alcibiades_mystery]

19. On the one hand, I can't believe that there are people here who would be that stupid

On the other hand, I know you're right to post this.

:-)

[gmoney]

20. Maybe Ohio Polls will be held open again...

if the lines are still crazy long like in 2004

[GreenPartyVoter]

21. Thanks for that point. :^)