No need to watch the returns Tuesday, this is how it'll go down.

[Drunken Irishman]

Promise.

Indiana and Kentucky close at 6. Kentucky will be called for McCain, Indiana will be too close to call.

At 7, McCain will be up 8-0 on Obama.

The polls that close at 7 will be:

Georgia, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia

I believe Vermont will be called for Obama. South Carolina & New Hampshire will be too early to call and Virginia and Georgia will be too close to call.

That puts McCain at 8, Obama at 4.

Polls that close at 7:30: Ohio, West Virginia. Ohio will be too close to call, West Virginia too early to call.

At around 7:45, the networks will call South Carolina for McCain and New Hampshire for Obama.

That puts McCain at 16, Obama at 7.

Virginia, Georgia and Ohio will be too close to call.

At 8, the following states' polls close: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee

This will shift the race dramatically.

McCain will be projected in the following states:

Alabama
Oklahoma
Tennessee

Mississippi will be too early to call.

Obama will be projected in the following states:

Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Illinois
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
New Jersey

Pennsylvania will be too early to call, Florida too close to call.

That puts the race now at 99-43 for Obama at about 8:10 EST.

At 8:25, McCain will be projected the winner in West Virginia & Mississippi.

So the following states will be too close or too early to call:

Indiana, Georgia, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania.

At 8:25, right before Arkansas and NC polls close, Obama will be at 99 electoral votes, McCain at 54.

The 8:30 polls close. Arkansas is called for McCain, North Carolina is too close to call.

Obama stays at 99, McCain is at 60.

10 minutes after 8:30, Pennsylvania will be called for Obama and Georgia called for McCain.

Obama is now at 120, McCain at 75.

It's now too close to call in Indiana, Virginia, Ohio and Florida.

Shortly before 9 EST, however, Virginia is called for Obama.

Obama now stands at 133, McCain at 75.

Polls in a bunch of states then close at 9.

McCain is projected the winner in the following:

Kansas
Louisiana
Nebraska
Texas
Wyoming

Obama is projected the winner in the following:

New York
Minnesota
Rhode Island
Wisconsin

South Dakota & New Mexico are too early to call, Arizona and Colorado are too close to call. The story at this point is how McCain is struggling in his home state. Also, Obama's lead in the electoral college balloons to 188-132.

At around 9:30, New Mexico is called for Obama, South Dakota for McCain. That puts Obama at 193, McCain at 135.

Three and a half hours after polls closed, Indiana is projected for Barack Obama. The news now shifts to, "we now know who our next president will be" as Obama leads 204-135.

The states yet to be called:

Ohio
Florida
North Carolina
Colorado
Missouri

Right before polls close in the western half of the country, the network will project Obama as the victor in Colorado. Nearly an hour after polls closed there. Obama now leads 213-135.

Polls close in 5 states.

McCain is projected the winner in the following:

Utah

Obama is projected the winner in the following:

Iowa

Montana, Nevada and North Dakota are too close or too early to call.

Obama now leads 220-140. McCain announces he will hold a rally soon. Obama will wait until California's votes come in.

At this point, three hours after polls closed, Ohio is called for Obama. Two and a half hours after polls closed in Florida, it is called for Obama as well. With both states, he now sits at 267 electoral votes, three away from 270.

Right before the 10:00 hour, McCain is projected the winner in North Dakota and Montana. Obama is then declared the winner in Nevada, putting him over 270 electoral votes at roughly 9:50 EST. The networks flashy graphic announcing Obama as the 44th President of the United States will splash across millions of television sets nation wide. Talk now goes to the historical impact of Obama's landslide.

Polls then close in 5 states.

McCain is projected in:

Idaho

Obama is projected in:

California
Oregon
Washington
Hawaii

Arizona is also finally called for McCain.

And at 10:15 EST, Obama has 349 electoral votes, McCain 160.

Around 10:30, North Carolina is called for Obama. And around 11:00 EST, Obama is projected the winner in Missouri, not that it matters.

Alaska, an hour later, is declared for McCain.

Obama wins 375-163.

[corkhead]

1. I am bookmarking and I am going to hold you to it!

:toast:

[uppityperson]

12. me too. I bookmarked before I read your comment.

:toast:

[Buzz Clik]

2. "West Virginia too early to call."

WV will be called 0.01 second after the polls close. Otherwise, seems plausible.

[BlooInBloo]

3. Heh.

[IndianaJones]

4. I like your timeline. I have him at 364. nt.

[billyoc]

5. I'll be in Times Square checking out the ladie--erm, poll results.

[Erin Elizabeth]

6. The time you have for Obama to be at 270 EVs or above is about

ten minutes before I think it'll be called for him, but otherwise your prediction is WAY more detailed than mine, LOL. I'm bookmarking this and comparing it after the fact.

[HardWorkingDem]

7. And at 11:35 FauxNews will break in with a breaking news story that says...

some how the numbers are all wrong and McCain/Palin are the projected winners...

Don't know about anyone else, but I'm nervous as hell about Tuesday. I feel those pricks are going to pull some huge shit....

[bbernardini]

8. Thank you for this, but you have WAY too much time on your hands.

;)

[Fire1]

16. ditto!

[rug]

9. Well done. I may as well to the movies after the polls close.

[Rainbowreflect]

10. I'll buy that!

[grantcart]

11. I am willing to bet a donut that Georgia will have a higher percentage than

Obama and will be reported earlier --


Very difficult seeing McCain winning Georgia - Obama only has to pull about 26% of the White Vote.


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7713219&mesg_id=7713219

Its a very good scenario - one problem is that McCain is not going to a rally.

[rvablue]

13. Virginia WILL NOT be called at 9pm......not gonna happen........ n/t

[longship]

14. I like this scenerio, BUT...

I think that if VA, NC are called earlier it may have a consequential effect on the western states' outcome.

We could see some shocking surprises if the scenerios portrayed my many pan out.

I see MT, ND, AZ and maybe some surprise states like KS (which has a helluva great Democratic party organization).

I'm predicting 375 EVs for Obama.

[Motown_Johnny]

15. no polls held open late due to extraordinary turn out and problems with machines and ballots?

I think you are fairly accurate in your assumptions, but you forgot to grab a bag of monkey wrenches and toss them into the political works one at a time

[breadandwine]

32. Yeah. Irishman, your analysis is thorough but way too uneventful.

You've got close states, Southern states, going for Obama.

Ohio and Florida both? Wishful thinking. Florida still has a GOP governor. He would like to cover his ass and make it look like he was impartial for his political career. But he's still a Republican and he will still "let" those below him do rotten things he "didn't know about." I think Florida is already in trouble simply because it's close combined with a Republican governor and past history of election rigging in BOTH 2000 and 2004. Do you think all that is just going to disappear?

We are seeing stories of massive voting problems around the country. Purged votes. State certifications are now in the hands of partisan officials like never before. They could write on a post-it note that Mickey Mouse won the state and that's it. They actually did that a lot in '04. MANY Kerry states in '04 were flipped simply by the GOP election officials saying so and Kerry folded early.

There are now BS Democratic claims of a "secret plan" to prevent electronic rigging, the same BS we heard in '04. Part of the problem is that in order to give McCain more holes in the dam than McCain has fingers, Obama has spread himself very thin. He's ahead in several critical states by as little as 1-3 percentage points. Do you really think that the GOP can't tilt the table 3 percent using the dirty methods we already know about? And every 4 years we hear about NEW methods of election rigging we hadn't heard of 4 years earlier. And each time it's the same thing: "Well NEXT time we'll be ready for SURE." The election riggers keep shifting the goal posts, they keep coming up with new tricks, we are always playing catch up.

Irishman, you can't be serious saying that BOTH Ohio and Florida are in the bag for Obama. Where is the margin for error in your analysis?

Guaranteed your analysis is too rosy. Too simple. Too uneventful. Too winning. Even Opra Winfrey had her vote switched. While you're outlining your positive thinking seminar, many Democrats are terrified that the election is being stolen ALREADY. The early voting period, if anything, has brought many irregularities into the open. And for the most part, the MSM is still playing the same game of pretending the problems are no big deal.

Check this out:


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/01/us/politics/01angst.html?_r=1&hp=&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&adxnnlx=1225562985-CoRlk6lLIrR2UmOnAayjVA&pagewanted=all


--- New York Times just had a piece mentioning the word "id" and mentioning "therapist" 4 times and basically talking like anyone who is worried about GOP election stealing is crazy. Millions of Democrats are very worried --- but they're all insane conspiracy theorists. I guess we're all crazy, right?

The news on Election Night will be a shocker of unfulfilled dreams and high expectations. McCain will do MUCH better than expected. Many have argued for months that the Democratic nominee would need a wide margin in the polls to offset GOP election rigging. True, there are states like New York and California where there is a huge lead. But not now in Florida and not in many other important states. Those razor thin margins in key states are going to be a problem on Election Night.

Millions of voters are going to get to the polls on Election Day and they are going to be told they are not registered or their identification will be challenged or the lines will be too long for people who have to get back to work or tend to their children, machines will be too few and breaking down all over AA areas. You haven't factored all that in to your analysis.

[Henryman]

17. Delete

[fujiyama]

18. I expect a few other states t o be "too close to call"

immediately after closing, including MI and WI, not that the margins will necessarily be that close, but due to reluctance to call them right away due to long lines, etc.

PA will likely take several hours, mostly due to long lines in the Philly area. I expect the same in St Louis and other major cities. Don't expect lines to close as expected and the media would look really bad to project any state before the lines are closed.

We won't necessarily know the official winner until 12 AM EST.

[enigmatic]

19. yep

Though I think Indiana probably goes to McCain.

Great post.

[grannylib]

20. From your keyboard to God's eyes....Amen, amen...let it be so.

[BluegrassDem]

21. Florida's polls close at 7am for the EST and 8pm EST for the panhandle

You need to amend your post to reflect that. Between 7 and 8, we should know how Florida goes down due to the most of the state, including central Florida, being on east coast time. If Obama wins there, doesn't matter what happens in Pensacola and Panama City.

[AtlMike]

29. FL poll closings

Don't the networks not call Florida until the Panhandle closes? I thought they didn't even talk results for the state until then either.

[unblock]

22. the networks have acknowledged that it's curtains for mccain once they call virginia around 9pm.

they're actually working on a phrase that basically says we'd call it if it weren't for those damn polls still open in the left half of the country.

[wildflowergardener]

23. Missouri

<And around 11:00 EST, Obama is projected the winner in Missouri, not that it matters.>

It matters to me. I want my state to be right for a change! I know what you mean though that hopefully it won't hinge on Missouri.

Meg

[dascientist]

24. what's the point spread on this? (j/k)

[quiet.american]

25. Splendid! nt

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

26. Let's hope we don't have the sudden stop sign like Tweety got around 8:30 Eastern in 2004

When all of a sudden, things started "flipping" without explanation.

[Ino]

27. Missouri polls close at 7, not 8 (nt)

[Longhorn]

28. Same for Texas -- 7 p.m. CST which would be 8 p.m. EST, not 9. nt

[renie408]

30. You have WAY too much time on your hands. n/t

[Catamount]

31. Oh God I hope you're right!

My optimistic side is in total agreement with you, the dark side....oh well...I'm biting my nails and they're bleeding!
Rec and kick

[rosesaylavee]

33. Only one thing I disagree with you on...

McCain will not hold a rally - he said he's just going to meet with a small group of reporters. He apparently cares very little about all those who have worked for him on this campaign.

But other than that, rock on! I like this scenario!

:toast:

[AwakeAtLast]

34. Remember that parts of Indiana are in CDT zone

Lake County area (Chicago) and Evansville will not close polls until 7:00 p.m. EDT.

[bdamomma]

35. kick

[Festivito]

36. Excellent. Maybe I'll stay up to watch it just to check your prediction.

Nicely done.