The Myth of the 1980 Reagan Landslide

[book_worm]

I love studying presidential elections and statistics. Everybody speaks of the 1980 election as a huge Reagan landslide and certainly in the electoral college it was: 489-49. President Carter carried only Georgia, Minnesota, Maryland, West Virginia, Rhode Island, Hawaii and DC. But the electoral college doesn't tell the whole story. If electoral votes were distributed according to popular vote allocation the results would be: 273 for Reagan, 221 for Carter and 44 for John Anderson, the liberal GOP congressman who ran as the Independent that year.

There can be little doubt that Carter was denied several states because of Anderson's presence on the ballot. For instance:

Massachusetts: Reagan won by 3,829 votes (41-41) with Anderson receiveing 382,000 votes.

New York: Reagan won 46-44(or a plurality of 165,000) over Carter while Anderson received 467,000 votes.

Alabama: Reagan 48-47 or a 17,462 plurality.

Arkansas: Reagan 48-47 or a 5,123 plurality.

Delaware: Reagan 47-45 or a 5,498 plurality.

Kentucky: Reagan 49-48 or a 18,857 plurality.

Maine: Reagan 45-42 or a 17,548 plurality.

Mississippi: Reagan 49-48 or a 11,808 plurality

North Carolina: 49-47 for Reagan and a 39,383 vote plurality

South Carolina: 49-48 for Reagan and a 13,647 vote plurality

Tennessee: 48-48 for Reagan and a 4,710 vote plurality

Vermont: 44-38 for Reagan and a 12,707 vote plurality

Wisconsin: 47-43 for Reagan and a 107,261 vote plurality

In addition, Reagan took Illinois (49-42), Pennsylvania 49-42, and Michigan 48-43, all by under 50%.

Now, Carter wouldn't have won all of these states had Anderson not run, but he would probably have won several of them had it been just a straight Reagan-Carter race. Reagan still would have won, but the election wouldn't have been such a blow out for Carter as it appeared.

[Zynx]

1. Reagan's big win came from a lot of close states breaking his way.

In truth it wasn't much bigger than Clinton's win in 1996. It's just that strucutrally the electoral map wasn't as rigid.

[bluestateguy]

2. Carter did comparatively well with white Southerners in 1980

at least for a Democrat. Carter got percentages in the southern states that exceeded the performances of what Mondale, Dukakis and to a lesser extent, even Clinton and Gore received in those states.

[brazos121200]

12. Because Carter was "one of them" , even though he was "wrong"

on the civil rights and abortion issues. I have always been amazed at just how well Carter did among this part of the electorate, even in 1980.

[x-g.o.p.er]

3. It was no myth

Think about it for a second and look at thiose states you're referencing...Mass, NY, Del, ME, VT, WI.

Those are hardcore blue states that Reagan won, and whether he won them by, 5,000, 10,000, or 100, the fact is he won them. He won them with what many consider a third party candidate that took more votes from Reagan than he did Carter.

He shouldn't have even been competitive in them.

[book_worm]

5. Actually you are wrong. Delaware, ME, VT, and WI were not considered blue then

they were true battlegrounds. For instance, while Carter did carry Wisconsin in '76, the last dem before him to win it was LBJ, and then before that you'd have to go back to Truman in '48. Maine and Vermont were considered republican states at that time. Maine did go to Johnson in the landslide of 1964 and HHH because of Muskie in '68 but FDR lost both Vermont and Maine in '36 (the only states he lost that year) and Vermont didn't go Democratic again until 1992. Delaware did go to JFK in '60 and LBJ in '64, and Carter in '76, but again you'd have to go back to 1944 and FDR for the last time before that.

Lots of states have changed over the years including Illinois, NJ, and CA--now all considered blue, but until 1992 they voted pretty regularly for the GOP for president.

MA was a blue state but as I stated Carter lost it by only 3000 votes while Anderson won 382,000, would have certainly gone democratic had it not been for Anderson.

[GreenPartyVoter]

7. Exactly right. Maine was a moderate red state when I was a little girl. Between

the GOP moving ever rightward and more progressives moving here, we shifted from moderate red to moderate blue.

[fed_up_mother]

4. Anything that happened isn't exactly a myth

But you can explain "why" it happened.

[book_worm]

6. The Myth is that it wasn't exactly a popular landslide but it was a electoral landslide.

[fed_up_mother]

13. True. And if Obama gets an electoral landslide...it'll just be a "landslide" :)

[brazos121200]

8. All of the television networks and papers were saying right

up to election day that the election was too close to call. Reagan was polling 3 or points ahead the last two weeks or so but still it was within the margin of error. Then, or so the conventional wisdom goes, the electorate decided on the final weekend before the election that they would go for Reagan.

So many of these states you cite were really so close that up until the final weekend Carter was probably ahead in many of them. And you're right, Anderson took many votes away from Carter and swung a lot of states to Reagan.

If Reagan could win with a lead of 10% of the votes and get over 400 electoral votes in what was essentially a race that was "too close to call", think what Obama could do this Tuesday with a 6 to 10% lead nationwide.

[book_worm]

9. Yes, that is true. Carter's own private polls (Pat Cadell) showed a sharp drop on Sunday night

they were suddenly down by 10, prior to that it was very close.

[zbdent]

10. you forget ... Ronald Reagan ran not with Bush as his running mate

but the Ayatollah Khomeini and the 52 hostages ... with nightly "Day nnn" broadcasts (which, after the release of the hostages, became "Nightline") by the "liberal media"

Right before Reagan was sworn into office, the hostages were released ... and a little-known "Colonel" named Oliver North started funneling money to terrorists using money from Iran ...

[book_worm]

11. All very true.

[benld74]

14. its all about the verbage being used to communicate,,,

THey call it Reagans landslide victory, BUT it was 3 people running for POTUS.
When it was Bush, Clinton and Perot GOP states that it wasn't a majority that elected Clinton.