The Cellphone Effect, Continued (Nate @ 538.com - good stuff!)

[HughMoran]

These are Barack Obama's leads in the likely voter models presently included in the Real Clear Politics average, plus the Research 2000 poll which they arbitrarily exclude.



The polls in the Cingular-y orange color include cellphones in their samples; the polls in gray do not. The cellphone polls have Obama ahead by an average of 9.4 points; the landline-only polls, 5.1 points.

I did a radio hit the other afternoon with Mark DeCamillo of California's vaunted Field Poll, which does include cellphones in their samples. He suggested to me that it was much easier to get the cooperation of cellphone users on the weekend than during the week. How come? Because most cellphone plans include free weekend minutes. Conversely, one might expect that young people are particularly difficult to reach on their landlines over the weekend, since they tend to be away from home more (especially on a weekend when some nontrivial number of them are out volunteering for Obama). So, while I haven't tried to verify this, it wouldn't surprise me if the "cellphone gap" expands over the weekend, and contracts during the week.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/cellphone-effect-continued.html

[NRaleighLiberal]

1. great minds think alike! we both posted the same post at nearly the same time!

[HughMoran]

4. heh

We're great!

[Tallison]

2. I'm 34, haven't had a land line in 3 years, and haven't been polled ONCE

I've been trying to tell people about this discrepancy for ages; I'm glad someone's finally trying to quantify it!!!!

ETA: Few people my age and younger, especially the single and childless (also like me) bother with land lines anymore...We are DEFINITELY underrespresented.

[Bread and Circus]

8. I have a landline and my household has been polled one way or another over a dozen times this year.

[Mojorabbit]

11. I have

a landline because if a hurricane hits it is usually dependable for communication but I also have a cell and no one has ever called me on either for polling purposes. Sigh.

[GreenPoet64]

3. Low income families often can't afford both landline service and cell service . . .

opting for the convenience of a cell phone over landline.

[Clio the Leo]

5. And THERE is your youth vote!!!

My theory (although I confess that I have no idea what I'm talking about) is that it only appears that young folks aren't early voting because they aren't being polled.

Makes no sense that his core demographic would not bum rush the polls when they had the chance.

[Tallison]

10. Exactly!

I know, because I'm one of them!

[dbmk]

6. Now the question is if it translates into votes

But grey or yellow it looks pretty good.

One thing: I think its good style to include a link when you use someones work. I know you wrote where it was from, but somone might not know to translate 538.com into the actual address.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/cellphone-effect-continued.html

[HughMoran]

7. Thanks for posting the link

I usually do, though 538.com is on everybody's favorites list here I'm sure, I sometimes forget to add links.

[dbmk]

9. If its not, it should be. :)