Final Pew Poll: An illusion of good news for Freepers wrapped around great news for us

[OmahaBlueDog]

Obama Leads McCain 52% to 46% in Campaign's Final Days
McCain Narrows Gap

<<Pew’s final survey indicates that the remaining undecided vote breaks slightly in McCain’s favor. When both turnout and the probable decisions of undecided voters are taken into account in Pew’s final estimate, Obama holds a 52% to 46% advantage, with 1% each going to Ralph Nader and Bob Barr. >>

http://people-press.org/report/468/obama-leads-mccain-in-final-days

On edit:

<<Notably, a much greater share of Obama supporters continue to say they are supporting him strongly, compared with McCain supporters. Among likely voters, 36% favor Obama strongly, while 13% say they support him only moderately. Only about a quarter of likely voters support McCain strongly (24%), compared with 18% who favor him only moderately. In most recent elections where there has been an imbalance in intensity of support, the candidate with the greater share of strong support has gone on to victory. >>

The reason I see this as great news for us is that, contrary to the GOP mantra for the past several weeks, this poll shows undecideds are breaking evenly-- not at 4-1 for McSame as they continue to assert.

[GoesTo11]

1. Registered voters 50-39

It's only McCain's superior GOTV that closes the gap.

[yellowcanine]

3. McCain's superior GOTV? Where do you get that? All I have seen is the exact opposite. Obama has a

vastly superior ground game than McCain by all accounts. McCain gutted what ground game he has in order to pay for more air time.

[FVZA_Colonel]

4. Yeah, where are you getting that McCain has a better GOTV operation?

[GoesTo11]

6. Big sarcasm, guys.

I am puzzled about why all the LV corrections assume McCain will do better. He's got no GOTV and he's got much less enthusiastic voters.

I suppose there's just no statistical method to factor that in, so they just use screens like "did you vote last time" or weight by last time's turnout rates or something.

[FVZA_Colonel]

7. My apologies.

Even if he does do slightly better, with early voting factored in Obama will still win. But it is hard to understand how he could do better in, say, Pennsylvania, where he has 28,000 GOTV people compared to 57,000 for Obama.

[high density]

5. McCain is dropping GOTV to fund TV ads

seriously.

[StClone]

2. Hopefully Nader's last hurrah.

About time.

[OmahaBlueDog]

8. He's about reduced himself to the level of Harold Stassen

Honestly, I think he's tarnished his consumer-crusader image with these increasingly silly presidential runs.