PPP Pennsylvania Poll: Obama 53, McCain 45

[MadBadger]

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/11/pennsylvania-results.html

Barack Obama's lead in the Keystone State has decreased from the consensus several weeks ago that he had a double digit advantage but he nevertheless is in great shape to take the state with an eight point lead and almost nobody undecided.

Obama has a commanding 56-38 lead with independent voters in the state. As he is in many swing states, Obama is actually carrying more Republican voters (16%) than John McCain is Democratic voters (15%), perhaps surprising in a state where Hillary Clinton won the primary in a walk.

Obama is trailing McCain only 50-48 among white voters. In a state with a black population over 10% that level of competitiveness is more than enough to give him a strong overall lead when you factor in his 90% + support from African American voters.

Obama is winning in every age demographic except senior citizens and a large amount of his lead is coming from a remarkable 68-30 performance with voters under 30.

In Pennsylvania down ballot races Republican Tom Corbett leads 52-35 for Attorney General, holding Democratic challenger John Morganelli to 59% even among voters within his own party. For Treasurer Democrat Rob McCord leads 46-38 and for Auditor General Democrat Jack Wagner leads 49-35.

[MadBadger]

1. Kickin with the internals

[Two Sheds]

16. the internals you provide are interesting

we all remember the Rasmussen poll that was pimped as evidence of a horse race just two days ago. Well, here's a poll that accurately reflects Obama's huge edge among African-Americans (who knew?) and under 30 voters. Rasussen gave McCain a 20 pt adavantage with the under 30's and a crazy 20% in black voters. Turn those two groups around and here you go...eight point spread.

[alcibiades_mystery]

2. Eight point lead is a sealed fucking deal

If PA is in play, so are GA and AZ. So Worry Brigade Losers should shut the fuck up.

[jefferson_dem]

9. Actually, I hope PA is NOT in play. Since it hasn't gone red since 88.

:)

[alcibiades_mystery]

14. PA is not in play

Either is AZ

[nuncvendetta]

3. no wonder Cindy looked like she was about to cry tonight

n/t

[MadBadger]

5. No, she was out of pills

[stoge18]

4. Yes! Yes! Yes!

Obama at 53! This seems to fall in line with other PA polls out today.

[Two Sheds]

6. BOOM!!! Awesome!

nm

[Jennicut]

7. WOW! I am lovin this! 8 freakin points baby! That is great news.

:toast:

[ShadowLiberal]

8. As a PAer I've always been a bit skeptical of an Obama win by 10%+ here

That number from the poll you posted sounds much more reasonable to me considering past margins of victory in PA by democrats, and Obama's lead nationally that averages around 6 to 8 percent.

[Fovezer]

10. Never thought he would win by double digits

But I'll take +8 any day. :)

[scheming daemons]

11. McCain only leading whites 50-48.... that's a wonderful sign for my state

Maybe Murtha WAS wrong about us.

[Blondiegrrl]

12. Sounds good to me. I feel pretty confident about PA. nt

[jefferson_dem]

13. Obama winning 16% of repugs and +18 among indies?

Bitter shmitter...

[PM7nj]

15. I still don't know if I trust PPP...

At least in PA. They where WAY off during the primaries. On the other hand, they where the most accurate in Indiana and North Carolina, IIRC.

[Jennicut]

18. Only the Suffolk poll had Hillary at 10 points, which is pretty accurate with her 9.2 win.

None of the polls in the PA primary were accurate except the Suffolk poll at 10 points. I think PPP is accurate now-6 to 8 point win as all the other polls are around the same amount.

[HughMoran]

17. Geez, I go to take my kids home and all hell breaks loose!

This combined with the National polls seems to be the beginning of the end for McCain. I'm still going to be cautious and am hiding all those planning party's and celebrating early - but this does give me some comfort going into the last day before the election where very few polls will be updated.

[VADem11]

19. I'll take it

53% would be the highest percentage that any Democrat has gotten in decades and an 8 point lead for Obama is great. It's roughly how much Clinton won by in 1992 and 1996.

[Schulzz]

20. If you think Obama's campaign is taking PA for granted, they are not.

Joe Biden will campaign in Philly tomorrow and Bill Clinton in Erie.

I think it's the right thing to do. A personal stop by Obama at this point would only make people nervous about his chances.

My final PA prediction: Obama 52-53% McCain 45-46%

We will win PA.

[workinclasszero]

21. HA HA

PA not in play Gramps and Gidget!:kick:

YOU LOSE!!!:bounce: