One of Three Things Will Happen:

[Junkdrawer]

1.) Obama is elected President of the United States.


2.) Something big - Monday Night Football terror attack big - happens tomorrow.


3.) We vote on paper ballots in 2010 and all Federal elections from then on.

Because, at this point, no one, and I mean no one, will believe that John McCain was elected President of the United States in an honest election as things stand tonight.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

1. No one believed Chimp won either time.

:shrug:

[Jennicut]

2. Chimp was way closer in the polls before 2000 and 2004...I think he was actually in the lead in both

Gore and Kerry caught up to him majorly, but Bush was ahead in the average of the polls both times.

[Occam Bandage]

8. He was. Bush led the final pre-election 2004 polls by a few points. He won by a few points.

[leeroysphitz]

11. Excellent screen name. n/t

[demwing]

3. Not true. At least 1/2 the US population believed.

They were wrong, but they believed.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

5. Can't disagree with you.

[Junkdrawer]

4. The "polls" had W and Gore/Kerry neck and neck...

Even cooked polls show Obama with big leads - consistent big leads.

No, a theft this time (without some massive cover) would be a bridge too far. It would change things in a profound way.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

9. Fortunately, we'll never know*.

*Or, unfortunately. Without a true test, we may never fix this voting system.

[Occam Bandage]

6. 2004 was entirely--entirely--in line with the pre-election polling. Including in Ohio.

All claims of "OMG STOLEN" come from either early-return exit polls--which are a strange beast by themselves--or by bending polling numbers in so many unnatural ways that a Cirque du Soleil acrobat would be impressed.

Were there irregularities? A few. Were there long lines? Undoubtedly. Was '04 anything like '00? Only in that the good guys lost.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

10. Was there massive suppression?

[Occam Bandage]

14. Possibly. Was there massive incompetence? Probably.

Either way, "theft" is a pretty weak argument when the final totals are in line with the pre-election polling. It's possible; it's just a hard sell.

Really, which of these sounds more likely?

A: "The polls showed Bush winning narrowly. There was the standard amount of state-level incompetence, but it all balanced out and Bush won narrowly."

B: "The polls showed Bush winning narrowly. There was large amounts of incompetence, which was probably directed at Democrats and was done so deliberately and criminally. There is no evidence of such direction; we must simply assume that it existed. Also, Democrats probably turned out in far greater numbers to vote than polling would predict, despite such turnout increases not occurring in other states. The result of this totally unprovable pair of suppression and turnout is that the election reflected the polls in a criminal and illegitimate manner, instead of the surprise Democratic win that we would have had if not for the possible but unprovable criminal activity. "'

On edit: I'm not trying to say Bush won legitimately in 2004; I have no idea and don't pretend to know. I'm just saying that the claim of theft is a hard sell to the general public.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

15. Blackwell's paper.

All you need to know

http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/2004/09/28/ohio/.

[Occam Bandage]

16. And there's no evidence that materially impacted the final results. Again, it's a hard sell. nt

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

17. It shows intent. nt

[Junkdrawer]

18. Here's what happened:

In 2000 and 2004, hard evidence that the election was stolen came:

1.) After the election was successfully sold as "too close to call"

2.) After the election was confirmed by the House

Since there was no way to overturn the results, and since most of the country thought Bush could have won, there was no big, nationwide push for reform.

This time would be different.

[cloudythescribbler]

7. Why the rationale's ALREADY out: "It's all 'cause of racism". Sweeps stolen election under rug ...

[Junkdrawer]

13. Not enough - not NEARLY enough - of an excuse...

Mark my words - people won't buy it.

No one, and I'm talking the average guy on the street, would trust elections from that day forward. And that trust is what holds the country together.

[volstork]

12. I choose 1) and 3)

When Obama wins, and the Dems have solid majorities in both houses, eliminating election fraud will be a top priority.

[Junkdrawer]

19. That would be my wish also...and the Ohio Rove lawsuit should provide...

sufficient motivation.

http://www.velvetrevolution.us/