Gallup Final Estimate: Obama 55%, McCain 44%

[Fovezer]

Long time lurker here, and wanted to post the Gallup finals released just now:

RV: Obama 53(+1), McCain 40(-1)
LVI: Obama 53(+1), McCain 42(-1)
LVII: Obama 53(+2), McCain 42(-1)

http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx

[MadBadger]

1. WOH!!! Where did all these great numbers come from?

[Fovezer]

2. gallup.com

They just released them not long ago.

[MadBadger]

3. I know, but besides the USA Today numbers, do we know how they came by the other numbers?

[Fovezer]

11. No, I think they just released them early.

Not 100% sure, though.

[still_one]

4. Thanks and welcome. It is interesting that they all are about the same spread /nt

[melody]

5. Welcome to DU! I love the plus and minus signs the best :)

:toast:

[Fovezer]

12. Thanks!

:hi:

[scheming daemons]

6. Thank you!

If Gallup is correct, Tuesday will be the greatest night of my life.

[Bicoastal]

7. This one goes to 11.

[ram2008]

8. Wow! Amazing. TURNOUT EXPECTED: 64%!

Truly astonishing. " assumes an estimated turnout of 64% of the voting age population, an increase over 2004"

[Omnibus]

36. 63.1% in 1960 was the highest since they've started measuring.

And that was the first year they started recording that stat.

If we top that with this election, that would be AWESOME!

[RagAss]

9. Why isn't the MSM on this?????? These are blowout numbers !!

[crossroads]

10. Thanks and welcome to DU!

[Fovezer]

15. Thanks for warm welcome all!

:hi:

[MadBadger]

13. THIS IS AMAZING!!!

This is instead of tomorrow's tracking Poll I believe.

[Muttocracy]

14. hmm, that graph sure doesn't look like narrowing to me!

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111703/Final-Presidential-Estimate-Obama-55-McCain-44.aspx

[Cali_Democrat]

16. 55% is AWESOME

w00t

:bounce:

[alcibiades_mystery]

17. Ouchies...

:rofl:

[Avalon6]

18. Obama has broken 53 for the first time!

[BlooInBloo]

19. Long time? Heh!

Welcome newbie!

[scheming daemons]

23. It's an UNCONCERN TROLL!

;-)

[BlooInBloo]

26. I know! I wasn't totally sure how to react!

:rofl:

[alcibiades_mystery]

20. Woot woot...Welcome!

:thumbsup:

[jefferson_dem]

21. Wow. Thanks for posting.

Dems hold a 12 point party advantage over Reps. And Obama wins indies by 5 too.

[Every Man A King]

22. I think Gallup was forced to move a lot of people

from RV to LV based on the amount and demographics of people who were telling them they early voted.

[Marsala]

25. Yeah, their two LV models became almost indistinguishable

At least in terms of Obama vs. McCain percentages.

[Danger Mouse]

24. Thank you. Hey, post more often, would ya?

:hi:

[Fovezer]

27. I'll try and make a habit out of it.

:toast:

[Blondiegrrl]

28. HOLY CRAP.

I love it!

P.S. -- Welcome to DU!

[HughMoran]

29. Wow

All I can say is, wow.

[progressoid]

30. Did they take into account the over 40, white, pro-life, Catholic demographic?

Fox tells me that that's gonna swing it for McPalin. Really.

[BamaTideFan83]

31. Based on my observations . . .

. . . the numbers seem a bit low for Obama. LANDSLIDE, people!

[mzmolly]

32. Welcome!

And thanks for the great news. :hi:

In contrast - http://www.gallup.com/poll/110272/Registered-Voters-vs-Likely-Voters.aspx

Here's an example. Gallup's final poll before the 2004 election showed the following:

Registered voters
George W. Bush 46%
John Kerry 48%

Likely voters
George W. Bush 49%
John Kerry 47%

Kerry was ahead among registered voters by 2 points, while Bush was ahead among likely voters by 2 points.

The final election result? Bush won the popular vote over Kerry by about 2.5 percentage points, almost exactly what our likely voter estimate predicted. Had we reported only registered voters, we would have estimated a Kerry victory. In other words, had all registered voters turned out in 2004, Kerry would have been elected president. But all registered voters didn't turn out. There was a Republican advantage among those who did turn out. And Bush won.

[Fovezer]

33. Let's hope this final estimate is as accurate as 2004.

:bounce:

[DeepModem Mom]

34. K&R! Welcome to DU!!!

[mollymongold]

35. how can Obama possibly be up 11 and close in tossups? doesn't make sense imo.

the tossup polls are wrong.

[regnaD kciN]

37. HEY, DRUDGE! FORGETTING SOMETHING???

GALLUP: Obama wins final poll by 11!

(sound of crickets chirping...)

[Quixote1818]

38. That's the largest margin they have had for Obama all year! nt