The Most Accurate Election Forecast? Hardcore Gamblers

[nyccitizen]

Great article here: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/keith-thomson/the-most-accurate-electio_b_140181.html

"Polls can be inaccurate. People may say what is politically correct, the questions may be leading, the pollsters may be biased. A pollster can still bill for an inaccurate poll. Bookmakers must make an accurate line or they lose -- period."

"Gamblers have more experience with cheaters... they take voter fraud into their metrics. Polls don't. Nor do polls take into account how each state's secretary of state factors in, or systems within a state designed to eliminate voters; Jimmy the Greek called these 'the intangibles.'"

Michael Robb, political expert for the British bookmaking site Betfair.com, lets the record speak for itself: Halfway through Election Day in 2004, when a CNN poll showed Kerry taking the lead, Betfair had Bush with a 91% chance to win.

Betfair also had all 50 states right in 2004.

As did rival site Intrade.

Koleman Strumpf, a University of Kansas economics professor who tracks betting trends, believes wagering is an incomparable barometer of an election. Among the reasons he gave:

"Relative to the polls, the betting markets have to think hard about what they're saying since they are putting their money at stake. Also polls tend to reflect what people are thinking at a given moment, versus a forecast of what will happen on election day -- post-convention bounces, for instance."

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CURRENTLY ON BETFAIR AND INTRADE, the two sites are UNANIMOUS again: Obama takes FL, NC, VA, PA, OH, CO, and NV; he loses IN, GA, and MO (actually Betfair has MO as a wash, but close enough)

Betters' current prediction: Obama 353 to McCain 185

*Intrade's homepage currently has its electoral predictor on the front page, being updated in REAL TIME based on current betting stats. Check it out, it's very cool.

[Lakerstan]

1. Casinos aren't built off of poor handicapping.

[BamaTideFan83]

2. In-Trade is a lock.

Obama will win in a LANDSLIDE.

[Shoelace]

4. just saw that, Intrade's McCain's numbers falling like a rock (link)

phew, a couple of days ago, it had me a bit concerned when it was down in the 60s for Obama. Now pushing 90. I go there several times a day. No money, just curious.
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/trading/t_index.jsp?selConID=409933

[Quixote1818]

3. It might be worth betting on GA, IN and MO. nt

[dos pelos]

5. A little Landslide music,enjoy....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6nuiIqMQ4sA&feature=related

[99th_Monkey]

6. Yet another Landslide, complements of Fleetwood Mac

... one of my favorites, reminds me of an unrequited love, who's stuck across the country in Maine.

but it kinda fits. ;-)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CX6WHvxTYHs

[happychatter]

7. 385 EVs for Obama- McCain gets squat

I've got another C-note that says McCain will not concede and litigation begins November 5th, no matter how staggering the defeat is... they'll focus on a few key states so they can assert deprivation

[Awsi Dooger]

8. Plenty of that is self-aggrandizing crap

"Gamblers have more experience with cheaters... they take voter fraud into their metrics. Polls don't. Nor do polls take into account how each state's secretary of state factors in..."

Let's see, I've bet on politics since '92, talking to dozens of political bettors. I can't think of one instance when any of them handicapped fraud. In 2004 Blackwell was oft mentioned due to suppression tactics, but that's the only example I can think of when a secretary of state was identified as a variable.

The secret of political betting is to identify advantage, but not too far away from election day. You lose considerable value if the money is tied up for months and months. The best gamblers isolate weakness in the number in September or early October and pounce. At that point there are still bargains to be had but the cash won't be frozen for months and months. In this cycle many states and even the presidential favorite flopped in September.

Articles like this always over hype the percentage by using the final indications. Naturally on the eve of an election, or election day itself, the favorites have been recognized and the result follows suit so you end up with every state called correctly. Big deal. I wish they would focus more on the aspect of the betting favorite not always following the polls. Observers tend to believe the candidate who leads the polling is always the favorite. That is hardly the case. Bush in 2004 was always the betting favorite, even when Kerry led the polling in early summer.

Incumbents inevitably receive a benefit of a doubt in that regard. Sometimes it's a weakness in political betting. When an incumbent is genuinely vulnerable they can be overpriced on the betting sites. In 2006, Intrade continued to believe Frank Murkowski would win the GOP gov nomination. I got great value on Sarah Palin to win the governorship, taking the GOP side at nearly 4/1 odds when it was clear she, and not Murkowski, would be the nominee against Knowles.

I meet as many morons in betting circles as anywhere else. But the one thing the best gamblers seem to understand is not to over react to recent events. That's why the odds generally move slowly. The best wagerers also realize you can't be too lopsided of a favorite when there's still a long gap until election day. Too many variables can get in the way.