538: Reassurance for Dems in NBC/WSJ Survey

[FVZA_Colonel]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/reassurance-for-dems-in-nbcwsj-survey.html


Reassurance for Dems in NBC/WSJ Survey
Of all the polls out late tonight -- and I do hope to have some sort of midnight update to the polling thread -- the one that ought to give Democrats the most reassurance is the new poll out from NBC and the Wall Street Journal, which gives Barack Obama a 51-43 lead. What's to like about this particular survey?

Firstly, all of the interviewing was conducted today (Sunday) and yesterday, so it's about the freshest set of data that we have.

Secondly -- and this is an underrated factor -- the NBC/WSJ poll always behaves intuitively. It goes up when the other polls go up, and goes down when the other polls go down:

Those numbers very closely match our "supertracker" trendline at any given time period, albeit with perhaps a 1-2 point Obama house effect. (The antithesis of this is something like the IBD/TIPP poll, which had its best numbers of the year for Obama (+11) in mid-May, in the midst of the Jeremiah Wright crisis.)
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I have to say this is comforting to see.