Don't Panic--Reassurances From a Poll Neurotic (more appropriately titled, Obama's got this!)

[babylonsister]

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_stump/archive/2008/11/03/don-t-panic-reassurances-from-a-fellow-poll-neurotic.aspx

Don't Panic--Reassurances From a Poll Neurotic


If you're the kind of person who obsesses over minor poll movements (and, if you're reading this, you almost certainly are), there's a good chance you noticed the slight tightening yesterday in Pennsylvania and Virginia, as well as the national tracking polls, which Nate covered in his daily write-up. Herewith, a couple reasons I'm not worried:

1.) The polls were always going to tighten a bit as McCain and the GOP made their final push. Among other things, the GOP was almost certainly hoarding cash for a final advertising blitz in key states. Watching TV yesterday in Washington (which is the same media market as Northern Virginia), I noticed a lot more McCain ads than I'd seen in a while. In Pennsylvania, we're even getting reacquainted with the good Reverend Wright.

Why am I not losing my s**t? McCain needed to steadily close the gap over the previous week to get close enough for this late movement to matter. That's why I was sweating the tightening I noticed early last week. But it didn't take. Though my national tracking poll average (minus Battleground and Investors' Business Daily, which lag too much for our purposes), dropped to 6.85 yesterday from 7.25 on Saturday and 7.33 on Friday, it's still up a half-point from a low of 6.28 on Wednesday. (Ignore the magnitude at this point, which depends on which average I use. It's the changes that matter.)

2.) As for Pennsylvania--which is basically McCain's only shot--yes, you'd rather see the poll numbers widening than narrowing. And it's admittedly less than ideal to see Wright starring in a new ad campaign. On the other hand, you've got to keep the following in mind: There are about 4.5 million registered Democrats in Pennsylvania, about 3.2 million Republicans, and just over one million voters who are either unaffiliated or belong to other parties. (Click here for complete registration statistics.) In order to carry the state, McCain either needs to run up a massive lead among the unaffiliateds and flip a chunk of Democrats, or he needs to flip a substantial number of Democrats. There just aren't enough Republicans out there to win any other way.

But here's the problem: A huge number of those Democrats and unaffiliateds either voted in April's primary or thought about doing so, meaning they're already familiar with Jeremiah Wright (who made more than a cameo in the run-up). Which is to say, Wright's probably baked in the cake for most of these people; the Democrats and Independents who tell pollsters they support Obama are supporting him despite Wright, not because they're unaware of him. So McCain's unlikely to win many of them via last-minute introductions.

Having said that, I think there will be more late defections, and that the final margin will be close in Pennsylvania (under five points). The absence of early voting there may be the biggest reason, since it denied Obama a chance to bank votes before McCain's last-minute push, and since he only has one day to get so many people to the polls in Philly and the 'burbs. The campaign and polling sites just might not manage to squeeze them all in. (Though I'm guessing they'll get pretty close.) For what it's worth, that logic also applies to Ohio.


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--Noam Scheiber

[AndyTiedye]

1. We're Panicking Over Pennsylvania Because It's PAPERLESS!!!

All they have to do is load rob-pennsylvania.zip into the Diebold voting machinez and Pennsylvania is THEIRS!
Without Pennsylvania, we've only got 270, which is getting too damn close for comfort.

[crispini]

3. And because it's an election-day-only voting state.

The lines will be out the fucking door (in African American areas, of course).

[yodermon]

6. VA is largely paperless DRE's as well.

But PA is supposed to be Obama's firewall.
:scared:

[apnu]

8. Well he's got Pittsburg and Philly locked up. That's the bulk of the voting in the state.

The only way they can take PA convincingly. is to delay the vote with long lines and flip a shit load. I don't believe they can do both in PA.

[apnu]

7. True, but there are several paths for Obama to win w/out PA, OH, and FL

None exist for McCain w/out PA, OH and FL.

Hell McCain can have all those, and Obama steals one other state, say NC, or MT, or ND and the game is over for McCain.

And McCain is dropping like a stone on MT and ND. He's dropping in MO and GA while Obama is rising just as quickly there.

All of this is betting on Obama picking up VA. That's an important pick up for him and us.

Trust me, there are many paths to victory for Obama that don't go through PA, OH or FL. But there are none if McCain looses one of those, and even with a sweep of those three states, he can still lose this easily.

[tiptoe]

2. K&R!

[mtnester]

4. It is not the polls

it will be the lines....the LINES dammit (as well as the paperless concerns above - PA, watch out, you may be the Ohio/Fla of 2008)

How many people do you know, that work, can afford to take the day off (if they even have paid time off)to stand in line? What about folks who only have "x" amount of hours...so many ways this thing can go wrong..so many

I will be on the ground trying to help starting at 0500 tomorrow until ??? some time probably on November 5

[Cha]

5. And why don't they have early voting

in PA? Gov Rendell..I hope you're all over this.