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Perky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-03-08 06:57 AM
Original message
Obama AHEAD in MONTANA
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Montana_1103623.pdf


Presidential Contest Very Close in Montana
Raleigh, N.C. – The race for President in Montana looks like it could be a cliffhanger,
with Barack Obama holding the slightest of advantages, 48-47, over John McCain in the
state. Ron Paul is receiving 4% of the vote.
One thing working to Obama’s definite advantage is that he has banked a 61-35 lead with
those who have already voted. John McCain is up 53-40 with people who plan to vote on
election day.
Each candidate is receiving over 90% support from voters within his own party.
Obama’s lead comes by virtue of his 48-40 advantage with independent voters in the
state.
Obama is also getting a boost from a 54-41 edge with voters under the age of 30.
“I’m not sure anyone expected Montana to be one of the races the nation would be
watching on election night,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But
strong support from independents and young people could allow Barack Obama to pull
off a big upset in the state.”
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Wetzelbill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-03-08 07:03 AM
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1. Watch the Indian reservation vote and the college town vote
Specifically Missoula. It could put The Big O over the top.
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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-03-08 09:59 AM
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2. The "ground game" of the Obama campaign and the DNC-Dean is awesome.
I know this has been said before. But I'm moved to say it again. Putting Montana, of all places, into "play," in this election, is just over-the-top awesomeness that deserves the highest and repeated praise.

And it is fascinating to me WHAT this "ground game" is designed to overcome (i.e., get around, outwit, outfox, overwhelm):

1. 'TRADE SECRET' code, owned and controlled by rightwing Bushite corporations, in all the shiny new electronic voting machines all over the country, with virtually no audit/recount controls.

Why our better Democratic leaders have not attacked this situation directly--restored transparency to our voting system--is unknown to me. Dark thoughts occur in regard to it. They're all in on the Forever War, even the best of them. They are fearful of Diebold & brethren, perhaps understandably. (There are solid reasons to be.) In any case, I think it is notable that the Obama campaign concentrated on the caucus states in the primary. The caucus votes are not counted by Diebold & brethren. Next, in facing an all Diebold & brethren general election, the Obama campaign has devised the only strategy possible to overcome the 'TRADE SECRET' advantage to Corpo/Fascists: massive turnout. And this strategy, of course, segues right into Dean's 50-state strategy and empowerment of the grass roots.

Massive turnout does several things: a) it can make the election theft corps and their Corpo/Fascist backers hesitate to reverse an Obama win, because the consequence might be citizen revolt against their election theft machines--they could lose that power over our election results for future uses; b) it makes things difficult for the 'TRADE SECRET' code programmers to figure out the formulas needed to steal the election, and c) it increases citizen observation, awareness and vigilance (for instance, more voters noticing the touchscreens changing their vote from Obama to McCain, right before their very eyes).

Upshot: If the election theft corps are routinely stealing an average of 5% to 10% of the votes (switching votes, 'disappearing' votes)--which I think is the case--you need that many MORE voters, and then some, to win--or at least to make the theft, if it occurs, more obvious. Massive turnout is a deterrent. And I think this is exactly how things are turning out. They are going to let Obama win--but will very likely significantly and fraudulently shave his mandate. The fascist voting machine corps are afraid to steal it this time (because it would imperil their machines, and may cause a messy citizen revolt), but they still own and control the secret vote counting code, and can use it, combined with other tactics, to tie Obama's hands, as to serious reform. (Also, we should be looking to the Congressional races for outright theft, this time. One way to hamper Obama is to inflict him with a difficult Congress. And we also need an analysis of the primaries, for Diebold & brethren choosing 'Blue Dogs' over real Democrats).

The answer to the massive, undetectable election fraud capability of these Bushite-controlled machines--short of outlawing the machines--is massive, very visible voter turnout. (The inference is that our better leaders could not get these machines outlawed; they therefore had to work around them.)


2. Vote suppression, voter caging, voter purging.

Massive turnout obviously counters these tactics. For every vote that is suppressed, another vote or two or three springs up, from the massive, well-funded, highly motivated GOTV campaign. The Obama/DNC "ground game" seems also to be very active in challenging these tactics--and other groups and entities are helping, including some good new Secretaries of State (in Ohio and California, for instance) who are actually doing their jobs, encouraging maximum turnout, and defending voters against efforts to keep them from voting.

Encouraging early voting creates several advantages over these vote suppression tactics. In some cases, where a voter has been unfairly purged, they have time to correct the problem before the final election day. Early voting outwits the tactic of election officials failing to provide adequate voting machines and polling places in Democratic areas. And if you're stuck in a long early voting line (as is happening in San Diego and other places), you still have the option of voting on election day, if you have to leave.

The high Democratic voter/Obama voter use of early voting is obviously the result of voter education. Voters have been apprised of their options. Voters are receiving all sorts of help from the Obama campaign, in this regard--as to methods of better securing a counted vote.


3. Letting the McCain/Palin campaign do its own meltdown. Taking the "high road."

Obama himself is brilliant at this. And his campaign, of course--as well as the DNC/Dean--are in tune with it. They don't hesitate to criticize the Pukes and call them on their lies, and they do it swiftly and definitively. But they have a positive vision to promote, and that is what they stress. This is very helpful with "independent" voters, who have a special dislike of negative campaigning. In fact, this is likely WHY Obama has such a big advantage in the pre-election polls. I don't think it's his move to the "center" (i.e., the right) on many issues. That, I think, is more intended for the Corpo/Fascists, who had the power to whack him--in dozens of different ways--and DIDN'T. I think the country itself--the people--are ready for serious reform and progressive change (and have been for some time--as far back as 2004), including the independent voters, most of whom voted for John Kerry in 2004!. Obama's positive outlook, vs McCain/Palin's very negative, backwards outlook, resonates with independent voters--and has prompted many more to vote for Obama, and has moved many more of them to register to vote, because they want progress. They don't just want to win. They are not partisan, as to party. They want the new government to be effective. And for that to happen--in their view--the new leader has to "speak softly" as well as "carry a big stick." He needs to be a mediator among many competing interests. He needs to be, in a sense, "above politics"--or at least above the rancorous, "divide and conquer" politics of the Bushwhacks.

Obama has negotiated this aspect of the campaign with an expertise that seems way beyond his years and experience--an inborn expertise, the expertise of a natural born leader, that reminds a lot of people (including me) of JFK. It's a rare thing to see. Call it political genius. Karl Rove is no genius. He merely wrote the narratives for pre-ordained events (stolen elections, the war). But this IS genius--being able to set the tone of a campaign, and of the country, with so many things militating against a positive tone, including a wildly shrill wing of the Corpo/Fascist media, the despicable behavior of the opposition, and including the provocations of this Bushwhack Junta, which could make anybody become angry and shrill.

Obama and his campaign have kept a steady pace. They have been unflappable. They have been brilliant at choosing the particular strategies needed, in these circumstances. They have analyzed their circumstances very well. And that is why they are able to draw forth the moderates and progressives in a place like Montana--to increase the progressive vote there, and to appeal to the anti-Bush Republicans. They will never convince the far right. But to inspire the progressives to vote, and to attract moderates and independents, they have to be MORE than anti-far right. They have to be a bridge among factions. They have to provide a big tent for Americans to crowd into, while Obama and his campaign walk through the minefield of the Bushwhack voting machines, Bushwhack voter suppression, vile Bushwhack campaign tactics, and the Corpo/Fascist media.

Brilliant.

Awesome.

Uplifting.

Even if they steal it from him--and I don't think they are going to--we are a changed nation, because of it. Or perhaps I should say, we are a nation being restored to its true self.
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meow mix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-03-08 10:03 AM
Response to Original message
3. high turnouts witnessed
lonnnng lines for early voting all week, full of young people.
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