Got final polls for 2004? Any links? I keep reading Bush was ahead - my recollection is he never

[chimpymustgo]

topped 50%.

We KNOW they stole Ohio. We KNOW the exit polls were correct. Just trying to get perspective as we head into history tomorrow.

Share your facts.

[Zynx]

1. Bush finished right at 50%.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

Very close when you consider what we found.

There was no stolen election as far as pre-election polling was concerned.

[chimpymustgo]

2. Thank you for that post. How do you account for the exit polling?

In any other COUNTRY they would have nullified the election.

[Zynx]

3. Early exit polling has never been accurate in this country.

The fact that the exit polling is usually flawed and that it was in conflict with the pre-election polling tells me that it means nothing.

[Political Heretic]

5. Actually, my understanding is that 2004 was the first time exit polling did NOT match up.

[LSdemocrat]

9. The leaked afternoon numbers were just raw, unweighted data that didn't reflect the full voting day

If you watch the documentary, "The War Room", about the 1992 Clinton campaign, when you get to election day, you'll see George Stephanopolous discuss all sorts of crazy afternoon exit poll numbers that didn't reflect the final numbers. The margins Stephanopolous mentions were often way off from the final results. For example, I believe the exit poll had Clinton winning Texas, but, in fact, Bush won it by 3 percent.

[HughMoran]

13. Heretic!

How dare you use factual arguments about the early meaningless exit polls leaked in '04!! It was stolen damn it, STOLEN!!!!

;)

[Political Heretic]

14. Hey I said it was my understanding that's all - if I was wrong, I was wrong.

:shrug:

[chimpymustgo]

8. Weren't the exit polls 51-48 for Kerry - until they were "ADJUSTED" to match the so-called "VOTE"?

The exit polls had always been reliable - until 2000.

[Political Heretic]

4. We don't KNOW anything.

But it sure seems like it.

Since we've never been able to have a full investigation into the facts, we don't "know" much.

[Dammit Ann]

6. Final Gallup/USAtoday/CNN poll...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7718414&mesg_id=7718414

[Democat]

7. 49-49 were the final USA Today 2004 numbers according to that link!

I had to click multiple times to get there, though. :rofl:

[Honeycombe8]

10. Exit polls are notorious for being wrong. So, no, I don't "know" the exit polls were right.

Exit polls are not done with a strict methodology, and are often done by inexperienced staffers just standing outside of a polling place asking questions.

In a close election, exit polls can't be regarded as reliable as a real poll. They CAN, I think, give someone a feel for how things went in that precinct. Think about it...how long you stand outside a poll, and what hours you stand there, will have a big effect on WHO is voting at that time.

[Honeycombe8]

11. Here ya go. Bush was leading over 2% in OH, per realclearpolitics avg of polls.

RCP Average | 10/25-11/1 - - 48.8 46.7 Off Ballot Bush +2.1

Zogby | 10/29-11/1 601 LV 4.1 49 43 - Bush +6
FOX News | 10/30-31 700 LV 3.0 50 47 - Bush +3
SurveyUSA | 10/29-31 816 LV 3.5 49 47 - Bush +2
Strategic Vision (R) | 10/29-31 801 LV 3.0 48 46 - Bush +2
CNN/USAT/Gallup | 10/28-31 1111 LV 4.0 46 50 - Kerry +4
Ohio Poll/UofC | 10/27-31 877LV 3.3 50.1 49.2 - Bush +0.9
Mason-Dixon | 10/27-29 625 LV 4.0 48 46 - Bush +2
Rasmussen | 10/25-10/31 600 LV 4.0 50 46 - Bush +4
Clev. Plain Dealer | 10/26-28 1500 LV 2.6 48 45 - Bush +3

[scheming daemons]

12. Pew's final poll called it exactly right.... Bush 51, Kerry 48

Your recollection is false.

Here's RCP's average of polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html

The average was Bush by 1.5. He won by 2.4.