South may be shifting in Democrats' direction

[JCMach1]

Here is an excellent look at what I have been saying for weeks... basically Obama support in some northern states (OH,PA,IN,etc.) may be overstated in the polls. Meanwhile, I don't think the polls have quite captured the final destruction of the Republican Southern Strategy.

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The racial divides that have buttressed Republican power in the South for decades appear to be crumbling in this year's elections, loosening the GOP's firm grip on the region, political analysts and independent pollsters say.
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The South is still culturally conservative, and the deep South in particular is still challenging territory for Democrats, political specialists say. But demographic changes - including a migration of voters from other regions, as well as an increase in education and racial tolerance among some younger residents - have given Barack Obama and other Democrats an opening this year and are likely to change the electoral map in future elections, they said.

"There's definitely a shift going on," especially in states with larger cities, said Harry L. Wilson, director of the Center for Community Research at Roanoke College in Virginia. "If the Democrats are going to win these states back, this is the year to do it. I'm not saying a Republican couldn't win back in 2012 or 2016, but they won't be able to take it for granted the way they have in the past."

The "Southern strategy," created by Richard Nixon's campaign in 1968, pitted white conservative voters against African-Americans, who had won landmark protections under the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965. Once solid Democratic territory, the South became increasingly GOP-dominated, and except for Southern-born candidates such as Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, the region has remained nearly impenetrable for Democratic presidential nominees. President Bush swept the South from Texas to Virginia in both 2000 and 2004.

But Obama, aided by a massive voter registration campaign and population shifts in the region, appears poised to break that Republican stranglehold.

The Illinois senator is ahead substantially in polls against GOP nominee John McCain in Virginia, and is narrowly leading in North Carolina and Florida. Obama aides believe Missouri and even Georgia could be competitive Tuesday, especially if black voters and young people turn out in high numbers to make him the nation's first African-American president.

Democratic US Senate candidates, too, are threatening GOP incumbents in North Carolina and Kentucky, as the party seeks a potentially filibuster-proof majority of 60 seats, and Democrats see opportunities to pick up House seats in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia and expand their majority.

"This is a realigning election," said John Zogby, an independent pollster. The rise of a "creative class" in Southern cities, along with more relaxed attitudes toward race among younger voters south of the Mason-Dixon line, has dramatically improved the prospects for Democrats in the region, he said.

Most of the change is pure demographics: Cities such as Atlanta and Charlotte, N.C., have attracted new residents from all over the country, and in many ways feel northern, Wilson said. The high-tech industry around Raleigh, N.C., has drawn highly educated people who tend to have more open-minded attitudes toward race, he said.Continued... http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/articles/2008/10/31/south_may_be_shifting_in_democrats_direction/