Obama Busts 90% on Intrade!

[jefferson_dem]

http://www.intrade.com/

[HughMoran]

1. Saw that

Going the right way, my friend :rofl:

[geekgrrl]

2. AMAZING!! It's like chrismas eve, folks, but let's GOTV today!! nt

[pnorman]

3. I knew nothing about Intrade until this year.

I guess I can Google for their methodology, but can anyone here tell me about their track record?

pnorman

[AZSlacker]

4. It is a betting site. It isn't scientific. Higher shares = the more people

Are willing to put $ in, in the event something happens. In this instance, rising Obama shares mean there are more and more people buying shares that they will be able to cash in the event he becomes president. If he does not become president the shares are worthless. Intrade isn't scientific, rather, it is the markets reflection of its belief that an event will occur.

[CoolerKing]

8. It's a prediction market...(I think)

I'm not familiar with Intrade but predictive markets have become the focus of quite a few academic studies of late. Just go to wikipedia and search for "prediction markets" and you will get some basic information.

Some research suggests that predictive markets can be a great tool for navigating uncertainty and risk/reward type situations. A former marketing professor of mine has done a lot of research into the Hollywood Stock Exchange and how well it predicts final box office tallies of movies. Long story short: the closer to the release date of the movie, the more accurate the predictions from HSX become (in fact, she discovered that 24 hours before the release, HSX had an amazing track record...something like 98% accurate).

In other words, it's a very good thing Obama is trading above 90%. He might even go higher as the day goes on, but, again, I'm not sure how Intrade investors judge the US electoral process and all its deficiencies and uncertainty. Unlike voting, there is no one trying to steal the $10 someone paid to go see High School Musical 3 at their local theater.

This isn't new, either. You might remember a few years ago some ex-Iran Contra douche bag got in trouble for starting a futures market for terrorist activities at the Pentagon. When word leaked he had to shut it down because of the outrage it generated. I'm not an expert on the subject but my understanding is that these markets work by pooling the expertise of thousands, even millions, of "investors" and that collective knowledge outweigh's individual insight, or something like that.

[DCBob]

5. Another major milestone!

Cheers!

[juno jones]

6. Up to 92 now n/t

[tigereye]

7. my husband has been following this for months

pretty interesting.