Pollster.com -- Obama increases national margin slightly Obama 311 McCain 142 Tossup 85

[grantcart]

If your feeling nervous about the state of the race consider this;

Think how good you would have felt 6 months ago if someone told you that the day before the election think how good you would have felt.


http://www.pollster.com/blogs/morning_status_update_for_mond_1.php

If you hoping for (or dreading) indications of a clear shift in voter preferences on the surveys released in the last 24 hours, you will not find them here this morning. As of this writing, Barack Obama's margin has clicked up very slightly on our national trend estimate, while yesterday's statewide surveys show a very slight narrowing of that margin in a few key battleground states. However, our current classification of the states remains unchanged over the weekend: We still show 311 electoral votes for Obama, 142 for McCain with seven states representing 85 electoral votes still in our toss-up category.




The impact of these new surveys on our trend estimates is very slight. We do show slight shifts on the margins of our trend estimates to McCain in more states (8) than to Obama (4) but these changes mostly represent a few tenths of a percentage point. The average shift across all of the battleground states since Sunday is just 0.1% to McCain.



Four new survey releases in Pennsylvania confirm that Obama's lead there has narrowed significantly over the last week, although four polls still show Obama leading by margins of 6 to 8 percentage points, with Obama receiving more than 50 percent of the vote. Even if the McCain campaign is counting on the typical "Bradley Effect" (in which most or all undecided voters "break" to the white candidate), Obama's 51.8% of the vote on our trend estimate indicates that McCain would still fall short.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

1. So, if that 311 total for Obama holds, then he's already won?

O 311
M 227

Cool.

[grantcart]

3. correct McCain has to win all of the upsets and take back 22 EVs from Obama

[Meshuga]

2. I am hoping these numbers are realistic to the final result

The numbers look good for Obama! I can't wait until tomorrow night to end this drama!