Why This Election Can't Be Stolen

[berni_mccoy]

I think it's important to note that it is very unlikely that this election can be "stolen". There are several reasons, but I'll start with the math.

The electoral vote strength margin is massive. I consider strength to mean any electoral votes in states with a greater than 5% margin. Also note that we aren't just taking one or two polls, but a systematic algorithmic measurement of these polls.

Consider the electoral vote strength of this years election (as provided by www.electoral-vote.com) :

The graph above shows the electoral votes again but omits the "barely" states. The electoral votes of a state only count in this graph if the candidate has a margin of 5% or more over his opponent.

Compare that to the same graph from 2004:


Clearly, this election is not the same as 2004 and 2004 was clearly anyone's game. 2004 was stolen with a single state: Ohio. And it was indeed stolen. Many people involved in stealing that election are being prosecuted or are in jail (the ones that evidence could be gathered on). Voter disenfranchisement was clear and there was a clear reason for it: The Republican controlling the election: Ken Blackwell.

This year, many of the same states that went for Bush are now under Democratic administrations with Democratic secretaries of state who believe in honest and clear elections. Recent federal court decisions have gone in favor of Democrats in Ohio and in Colorado.

Republicans would need to have a conspiracy of epic proportions involving far to many ranking people in order to pull this off. Most signs of election fraud have been sourced to the McCain campaign or the RNC: bogus registration forms, sending out mis-information pieces such as wrong voting dates and locations.

Ultimately, I believe the McCain campaign and the RNC are gearing up for an election challenge, but so far all indicators point to an extremely weak argument based on ACORN registration issues.

Furthermore, the Obama campaign has shown that they are prepared for election fraud. They know what happened in 2000 and 2004 and they are prepared and have been prepared. They know what they are up against.

Is Election Fraud still an issue? Absolutely. Should we continue pushing toward open, transparent and verifiable solutions that eliminate opportunities for election fraud in situations like 2004 and 2000? Absolutely. But I think we should all step back for a minute and see what the realistic chances this election will be stolen. I just don't see it happening this time.

[rcrush]

1. Thank you sir

You made me smile.

[berni_mccoy]

3. Glad I could oblige.

[azmouse]

2. You said it far better than I could ever hope to.

Thank you.

[berni_mccoy]

4. thank you.

[Spike89]

5. Great post!

Too big a task to steal this one. I'm tired of so many people freaking out over the possibility of PA (among others) being stolen. PA has a Democrat overseeing the election and a history of close but cleanly counted races...this one will not be close enough to steal, even if the repugs had the machinery in place--which they do not.

Personally, I believe the repugs used bully tactics in suppressing votes and had a very underrated ground game in 2000 and an even better one in 2004. The bullying isn't working this election, mainly because voters really, really want to vote this time and the bullies simply don't have the motivation. Finally, suppression is a hell of a lot harder when a significant portion of the vote comes in early. I hope there are long lines indicating a record turnout, but the reality is that in some states, more than a 1/3 of the votes have already been cast (in Oregon the majority have already probably been mailed).

Relax. Unless Obama flips someone off, er, hell, even if he does, this one is in the bag.

[Tatiana]

6. We went into this election with the overwhelming force of the people.

The Republicans never stood a chance once we got organized and united.

[ThatsMyBarack]

7. Rec.# 10!

Thanks for sharing, berni_mccoy! :patriot:

[berni_mccoy]

10. Thanks for the rec.

[Nothing Without Hope]

8. Thank you for this. Let's all hope that the crimes of election fraud in

the last decade are brought into bright light and all those responsible are convicted of their crimes.

In the meantime, your post will do something to reduce my anxiety enough to sleep tonight. Maybe.

K & R

[berni_mccoy]

9. I'm still not going to sleep easy LOL....but yes, it lessens the stress.

[bdamomma]

14. yes, berni thank you it does lessen the stress.

[blm]

11. In addition, I don't believe BushInc will risk getting caught stealing this for McCain. 2010 will

likely be the target to set up the next steal for 2012.

[berni_mccoy]

13. Good additional point there.

[BeFree]

23. They do have a lot invested

And this election is hardly close enough to steal and make a clean get away.

I fear that the congress will be taken, at least a few seats.

So Obama wins. We'll see if he pushes to re-write HAVA.

[blm]

56. A filibuster-proof majority, senate and congress BETTER secure the election process for ALL people

even if we all have to hound them to do so.

[BeFree]

58. Ya know

If they wanted, they could program the machines to filter out any congressperson who might be inclined to get rid of the machines.

We WILL have to hound them, bet on it.

Its a dirty job but someone has to do it. The whole election system needs to be reformed.

[truedelphi]

72. We will indeed have to hound them. Among the changes:

Going in and Re re-organizing the DOJ, so that the FBI is not disinterested in taking complaints of election malfeasance.

Seeing that there are actual penalties for stealing votes.

Getting rid of all voting machinery. We need basic paper ballots and number two penciles. Yes, paper ballots have been known to be disappeared. But that only amounts to five or ten thousand votes at a time.

With machinery, a simple digital signal via a modem can do that, and never be detected. And more importantly with machinery, the inner programming can reverse count the votes and affect millions of votes all at once.

[goodgd_yall]

12. Your point:

"Republicans would need to have a conspiracy of epic proportions involving far to many ranking people in order to pull this off." This is what I gather too, so I don't think we need fear, this time around.

[jazzjunkysue]

15. It's also the Bush crime family factor. Gramps doesn't have the syndicate

that the Chimp had, and he cannot help you if you find your ass in jail.

It's alot harder to solicit felons when you can't promise to save their butt.

McCain hasn't collected an army of thugs to do his dirty work. He can't even keep up with his own handlers, let alone run an under cover conspiracy.

What little electronic theft happens will be too small and localized to hurt Obama.

[Joe Chi Minh]

16. Thank you. I'd was listening earlier this evening to CNN in the UK

and the way they were talking was very scary. You know what they're like. I couldn't bear to hear any more.

[Overseas]

17. K&R for saying things so well. //nt

[drm604]

18. Intellectually I know that you're right.

It's nowhere near close enough to steal. But I can't turn off my anxiety. I guess 2000 and 2004 have made it hard for me to hope.

But maybe that anxiety is a good thing. Tomorrow after I vote, I'll head to the local Obama headquarters for phone banking. If I was overly confident I might not bother with the phones.

[marions ghost]

52. use anxiety as a motivator, the only way to deal with it--yes

We (who are aware of election theft) have been programmed to be anxious by the last few selections, if not before. So it's hard to suddenly drum up hope. No need to deny that anxiety exists. No need to try to wish it away. Use it to keep up the momentum now.

Those with a high level of concern about election theft can help overcome it by doing what can be done locally and keeping a positive view rather than sinking into negativity. Given the outlook now, there are so many reasons to be positive. The ONLY way he loses now is by theft and that would be too obvious.

:thumbsup:

[dana_b]

19. I hope people read this thread before going to bed n/t

[Hekate]

48. It's after midnight here--and I'm reading this wonderful OP before bed!

It's very encouraging.

Hekate

[Lorentz]

20. Wednesday will be a new day for some people.

It'll be the day they wake up and realize that there really is no grand conspiracy theory, no man behind the curtain. No stolen elections, no PNAC.

It'll be the first day that Barack Obama spends as President elect.

[BeFree]

21. Not that dumb?

There have been elections stolen. There is solid proof of a conspiracy to steal elections in 2000 and 2004.

They have the means, the motive and plenty of opportunities. And they are crooks.

I realize this may be hard for you to accept, but often the truth is.

[prolesunited]

22. Umm... both 2000 and 2004 WERE stolen

first in Florida and then Ohio and there's plenty of evidence.

[Jed Dilligan]

24. You deny the existence of the PNAC?

That's the kookiest thing I've read on this board.

[defendandprotect]

40. If Obama makes it tomorrow it does not negate conspiracy, nor stolen

elections of the past, nor the evils of the PNAC ...

and only the most naive will fail to understand that --

[Joe Chi Minh]

67. He/she obviously doesn't want to hear of any prospect of criminal indictments.

[defendandprotect]

69. ...I don't see how we can reverse direction or begin real repair/

reform without holding these people criminally responsible ...!!!

Shouldn't bankrupting the Treasury be Treason, at least --???

[Joe Chi Minh]

71. Of course. I like they've been allowed to run riot for far too long.

Spare the rod and spoil the child! But I like your "at least"!

[marions ghost]

53. where u been?

:shrug:

[Pithy]

25. Extremely well-written.

Thanks for taking the time to reassure. Obama's focus on getting people to vote early has certainly made it obvious that the majority of this country is ready for change from the negativity and exclusionary beliefs that the Republican leadership espouses. I hope nobody takes it for granted and gets out to vote as if it were neck-and-neck, but I agree: there is no way they can steal enough to win without giving away the whole scam.

[Rebellious Republican]

26. K&R especially for the concern trolls. N/T

:applause:

[Laura PourMeADrink]

27. wow, it was all downhill for Kerry after swiftboating. I'd like to see on Obama's

chart when Palin was interviewed by Couric. I happen to think her idiocy
was just as much a part of Obama's rise as the Wall st mess.

[defendandprotect]

41. I'd say that Kerry's lack of strong response and counter-attack

didn't help ---

However, looking at the game-playing surrounding the "scream" I don't think Dean either

understood what was happening when the rug was pulled out from under him -- !!

The differtence is either viewers aren't watching "MSM" -- thereby depowering the propaganda --

or some of corporate press are frightened of this fascist fiasco going any further

right now --???


On the negative side, much of the vote will be done on electronic machines --

all hackable --

And the GOP has worked steadily at new schemes to drop/disenfranchise Dem voters --

The corporate press all stll rely on the large computers for their vote counts --

[AtomicKitten]

28. It's the volume, baby. The volume.

When asked how he intended to deal with election fraud about a year ago, Obama said he intended to win big.

When I shook his hand almost a year ago here in SF, I said to him two words, "I believe." I took some crap for it at the time, but I've got to say ... I believe he's f*cking going to do it. Big.

:patriot:
:party:

[iiibbb]

29. You optimism troll.... (that's my favorite graph at EV.com)

[PatriotGames]

30. Thank you! This makes complete sense. The fraud would have to be of EPIC proportions. n/t

[JPettus]

31. And yet

I still believe we should never say never.

I think with the massive voter turnout, IF we can get all of them allowed to vote, we will win, since I think the votes for Obama will be too great for the voter suppression effort to work. IF we can get all of them allowed to vote and they do.

[codjh9]

32. Thanks, man! VICTORY TOMORROW!!!

[SomethingWicked]

33. Berni - Great Post - BUT...

BERNI - thanks for taking the time you took to write this careful post.

We know that these paperless e-machines are subject to manipulation. It's easy. If anybody wants to see what a cakewalk it is, just watch StealingDemocracy on YouTube - a terrific documentary. Nobody would know if the machines were tampered with, as there is no paper component whatsoever in Pennsylvania, Virginia, Georgia, Indiana and about eight other states. Berni, why do you have confidence some hacker sitting in a parking lot outside a polling place won't change 1.6 million votes, as it's been amply proved can be done with wireless systems. Or somebody won't swap out the little card in the electronic machine and then reboot. Diebold and ES&S systems are completely open to fraudulent tampering.

Again, thanks.

[SomethingWicked]

35. Berni - Great Post Redux

Forgive me - I just posted incorrect title. The title of the documentary I mentioned above is StealingAmerica - not StealingDemocracy.

[RagAss]

36. Thank you Mr. Hannity. Did you sign up to post this shit ?

[BeFree]

38. You got a problem?

SW posted a truthful expose' of the current predicament and you take a crap in public because of that?

[SomethingWicked]

62. Oh, thanks BeFree

{chuckling} Gosh, I didn't even realize Ragazz was responding to what I wrote, mainly because in his witless attempt to be clever he made absolutely no sense - inspiring nothing more than a perplexed "huh?" in me. Funny how some people think their riposte is everso witty when I just see what they write as public drool.

[BeFree]

63. Like I said

...it crapped in public.

Welcome to DU. My career here has been election reform, working mainly out of the election reform (dungeon) forum but they let me out on occassion to harass the crappy naysayers.

[RagAss]

34. Like hiding a giraffe in a porta-potty !

[roamer65]

37. If they steal this one, it will finally be obvious to everyone.

[defendandprotect]

39. Hope you're right ....

fingers-crossed --

[bertman]

42. "Many people involved in stealing that election are being prosecuted or are in jail".

Please elaborate on that statement.

Why have we heard nothing of these prosecutions? I consider myself fairly well-read so I'm surprised that I have not heard of this before.

Your comment about more Democratic administrations and Democratic Secretaries of State makes sense--unless you believe a lot of what has been written by people like Greg Palast and Bobby Kennedy Jr, who say that despite high-ranking Dems being in those positions there is another major disenfranchisement action taking place.

Let me say that I hope you are right about all of this. HOWEVER, without verifiable records of how each voter voted, how could anyone tell if the tallies are accurate? The only way that is gonna happen is if someone actually verifies it by observing it for every vote that is cast, then the verification counts agree with the machine tabulation. There is no mechanism in place for that scenario.

It's one thing to say that Obama has massive support, but the ultimate validation of that support is how the official vote tally comes out.

[berni_mccoy]

46. Here:

http://www.bradblog.com/?p=2533

and here:

http://rangevoting.org/OhioConvictns.html

[bertman]

65. Thanks for the links, berni. That is pathetic. If that is what happens to elections thieves I'm

in the wrong business. I should be working for the Republican party where I'll bet I could make some good $$$ making votes work out for Rethugs.

[Kurska]

43. There is no impenetrable defense

Thus there is no unstealable election

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

44. I think that our turnout is being underesitmated significantly

And that tomorrow, the GOP will take a butt-kicking of historic proportions.

I'm not concerned with election fraud, just GOTV.

[jennied]

45. Nice.

[xochi]

47. Why is no one talking about electronic tampering??

Not the MSM, nor this article, but the possibility of fraud through electronic tampering is real.

http://www.truthout.org/110308R
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3582117
http://dir.salon.com/story/tech/feature/2003/09/23/bev_harris/index.html
http://www.rawstory.com/news/2008/Cybersecurity_expert_raises_allegations_of_2004_0717.html
http://www.bbvforums.org/cgi-bin/forums/board-auth.cgi?file=/8/78469.html

[Joe Chi Minh]

49. I hope Bill Bennett can be indicted for continuing to employ those felons.

[xochi]

50. I know Bill Bennett's a racist neocon Rethug hypocrite, but was he involved

with electronic tampering, too?

[Joe Chi Minh]

66. I read somewhere on here that he was in charge of a district, in which it

was going on.

I think it might have been on this thread. I'll see if I can find it.

I've used the search facility without success, so wonder if I read it a site such as Bradblog. Do you know if he has an official post in the election or the Republican party's election "endeavours"?

[xochi]

75. I couldn't find any official connection but considering his neocon history

such as his central role in the PNAC (Project for the New American Century), his extreme right-wing ideology, his penchant for gambling, his racist rants on his radio talk show, where he stated, "But I do know that it's true that if you wanted to reduce crime, you could ... abort every black baby in this country, and your crime rate would go down,"--it would not surprise me at all if he WERE involved in the covert attempts to steal elections. Along with Bill Kristol, Randy Scheunemann, Donald Rumsfeld, Richard Armitage, Scooter Libby, Paul Wolfowitz, John Bolton, and other hard-core criminal power-brokers, he's one of the big-time Rethug players.

[SomethingWicked]

57. Xochi - ELECTRONIC TAMPERING

For some reason electronic tampering is the elephant in the room nobody wants to talk about - perhaps because it raises a deep-seated insecurity about election vulnerability. Go to www.verfiedvoting.org and look at their map. See which states have no paper component whatsoever, like Pennsylvania, Virginia, Indiana, Georgia.

I don't understand this argument that election frauds are in jail. Berni, is it your position that because a handful are in criminal trouble or jail, nobody else will fill their illustrious roles? Republicans will do what they have to do to win. I believe that's been amply demonstrated in McCain's campaign of lies and mendacity. Vote criminals can easily change votes from a laptop in the parking lot outside a poll if the poll uses a wireless electronic system - and the tampering is completely undetectable, aye, untraceable. Whence such faith that electronic tampering is something of the past?

[xochi]

59. Thanks, SomethingWicked!

Your link was missing a letter and didn't work, so I'm reposting the correct link here.

http://www.verifiedvoting.org/

hmmm... Wonder why the traditionally "red" states still haven't required verified voting and manual audits. Since the repugs have been in power the last eight years, isn't it very suspicious that they haven't pushed for ensuring fair elections?

[Ian_rd]

51. Using the numbers at Pollster.com, the GOP must steal 8 points with vote suppression to win.

... in any given "Obama-Strong" state including Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada. And this would be in addition to McCain winning all Toss-Up states and all Obama-Leaning states.

I tend to agree - 8 points is a hell of a lot to steal, even for people as good at it as they are. Not only for the amount, but if they actually stole that much, then they risk blowing the lid off of their own operation, when it would be better for them to take this defeat and leave their mechanisms in place for 2010, 2012.

[Joe Chi Minh]

68. Do you really think they would be allowed to leave their "mechanisms"

in place for 2010 and 2012? If so, it would certainly beggar belief in the rest of the world, even though we're already used to your election-crime amnesty for Republican election executives and operatives during your elections.

[Ganja Ninja]

54. Don't forget one last important point.

When the new Democratic majority is sworn in January, they will be the ones to put the final certification on this election.

[marions ghost]

55. thanks for posting

the comparison graphs. Your argument "they can't steal it" makes sense about this particular election. But the struggle for clean elections remains just as pressing as ever. We may not always have candidates as phenomenal as Barack Obama. And Democrats should NOT always be in the position of having to bring off landslides in order to "win" against the corruption on the other side. We know that election corruption is largely a Republican strategy. Although there have been instances of it among Dems, it has never been anywhere near the level that Republicans have perpetrated.

Republicans tell themselves that ANYTHING it takes to win is fair (it's all in the name of what's best for the country, y'know). They do not have what it takes to address election corruption because of past and present guilt. It helps them every time, so why should they?

Democrats need to take up the cause of election corruption very strongly --and fix this pathetic system. It's not worthy of any nation calling itself a democracy.

[lonestarnot]

60. I think you are right, but I'm still waiting and watching and ready!

[2bfree]

61. Thanks.

The graphs really helps me out in my thinking.

[kayakjohnny]

64. Welp, you've made me feel a much better about the whole thing, but I wonder

why the downward spike at the end of the graph for Obama on election eve or election day? Sorry if it's been mentioned. Haven't read each and every post here yet.

[RepublicanElephant]

70. i'm cautiously optimistic about...

all the business, military, and usually-non-democratic-voting leaders who have endorsed obama.

most of these folks love this country too much to allow for election theft by a third bush administration. and they have the power and the means to prevent it.

kinda reminds me of this:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0985699/

[Imagevision]

73. How many reports have you read today of faulty machines in toss-up states to simply

cause the voters to not have their votes count.

[Bonn1997]

74. It wasn't just Ohio in 2004

Freeman's book "Was the 2004 Presidential Election Stolen" is a very comprehensive account of fraud in many states. You may still be right, though, that it can't be stolen this time. I sure hope you are!