Scarborough seems convinced Obama will lose to Hillary tomorrow.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

His theme de jour is Obama's history of under-performing; losing NH and CA, losing PA big despite a huge spending advantage, etc., etc. etc.

Overlooked in the analysis (sic) is 1) that Obama also over-performed in many primary states, and 2) that in all of his pet examples Obama was running in a party primary against the second best active politician in the country in a race with no policy differences.

Yes, if John McCain was Hillary Clinton the race would probably be different.

But he isn't, Joe. He's a bad politician with highly unpopular positions representing a generally despised party.

If you want to talk about someone's actual track record of under-performance why not talk about John McCain folding up in 2000 after losing South Carolina to an inexperienced moron?

[Occam Bandage]

1. "If Hillary Clinton was the Republican nominee Obama would probably lose tomorrow."

I disagree strongly.

[Arugula Latte]

3. oops. wrong place.

[BlooInBloo]

10. No matter how much Obama wins, he'll never be able to "seal the deal"...

with some Clinton supporters.


EDIT: Inserted the word "some".

[ClarkUSA]

14. Only in Hillaryland does this sentence make sense.

:shrug:

[Occam Bandage]

16. I think we can retire both "Hillaryland" and "Hillary totally would win if (insane hypothetical)."

It's over, let's leave it dead and buried.

[ClarkUSA]

18. Another example of false equivalency... one is an "insane hypothetical" as you so gently put it...

While the other is a term dreamed up by Hillary's innermost circle to describe themselves. I stand by my statement.

[Occam Bandage]

19. I'm not equating the two. I'm simply suggesting that both be laid to rest.

[ClarkUSA]

20. Why lay to rest a term that Hillary insiders themselves use for each other?

If the shoe fits....

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

15. Wasn't looking to argue.

I was making a set of assumptions that are implied in an impossible concept. It's not central to the general argument, which is that one cannot factor policies out of politics.

Since some folks seem to have flashed on it for whatever reason (having STILL not gotten over the primaries, apparently) I removed it from the OP.

[Schulzz]

2. WTF talking point of the day

Is this all he has left? Bringing back the primaries? :wtf:

[Arugula Latte]

4. Nope. Obama would beat Hillary if she were the R-nominee.

Hands down.

[onehandle]

5. His theme is all about dividing us. Obama Rocks! Hillary Rocks!

Joe, You Suck!

[Schulzz]

7. I agree. nt

[FloridaGrl]

12. I agree

no time for Obama vs Hillary now; we've been there done that. Tomorrow is the big day!

[CitizenPatriot]

6. say it aint so, Joe

You're lamer than I thought

This is called RETREAD material

go into your roladex, or call a friend....you can come up with something better.

[Cha]

8. This is all stupid speculation which

I expect coming from a mccain supporter.

[Virginia Dare]

9. Except McCain is no Hillary Clinton...

nice try though, joe.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

11. And he cherry picked outlier polls from the primaries to prove his hypothesis

The results of the primaries were, for the most part, consistent with the averages of the polls prior to them. Yes, there was a bullshit poll in NH showing Obama ahead right before the primary and asshole Drudge pushed a crapass Zogby poll right before Super Tuesday. But I always look at the aggregate of polls and sites like RCP. I was almost never disappointed or off the mark. The biggest surprises for me during the primary were Iowa (didn't expect Obama to do so well) and Indiana (didn't expect Obama to do so well). Another thing about Dem primaries is that they're races for delegates, not winner-take-all. The strategy Obama used in the primary is different than the one he's using for the general.

[nuncvendetta]

13. he ignores basic elements of those wrong polls

1) NH - small state so a few changed minds affects the margin significantly. Couple that with Hillary's crying moment and independent voters thinking Obama had a lock so they voted in the Republican primary instead, and that's where the difference was made.

2) CA - had so much early voting when Hillary had a huge lead that she locked in the lead even though Obama surged ahead at the end.

3) PA - the polls weren't on average that far off.

4) OH - ditto.

[loyalkydem]

17. Joe

seems to be off his meds,