****NC VOTING: WHAT OBAMA NEEDS TOMORROW TO HOLD HIS LEAD****

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

Early voting has closed in NC. Here's the story.

NC BY THE NUMBERS: ABSENTEE AND EARLY VOTE TOTALS
Note: as of totals released after-hours on 11/2, the close of early voting. This does not reflect Absentee Ballots returned after 11/2 or other late totals that may come in. Voters have until 5PM 11/3 to return Absentee Ballots.

ALL REGISTERED VOTERS IN NC=6,256,671
VOTED ALREADY: 2,573,206
TURNOUT TO DATE AS A PORTION OF ALL REGISTERED VOTERS: 41%
REGISTERED VOTERS LEFT IN THE POOL: 3,683,465 (49%)

51.5% of all early voters are DEM=1,325,201
(46.3% of NC’s all registered DEMS have voted)

Total registered DEMS=2,860,556 (45.7% of all registered voters)
REGISTERED DEMS left in the pool=1,535,355 (41.68% of registered voters left in the pool)


30.1% of all early voters are REP=774,147
(38.7% of NC’s registered REPS have voted)

Total registered REPS=2,000,360 (32% of all registered voters)
REGISTERED REPS left in the pool=1,226,213 (33.28% of the registered voters left in the pool)


18.35% of all early voters are INDY=472,189
(22.3% of NC’s registered INDY have voted)

Total registered INDY=1,392,209 (22.3% of all registered voters)
REGISTERED INDY left in the pool=920,020 (24.98% of registered voters left in the pool)

Based on estimates derived from PPP crosstabs for NC poll released 11/3 and all things being equal (assume support levels by crosstab is the same for early voting and overall voting):
81% early DEM vote for Obama= 1,073,412
9% early REP vote for Obama=69,673
50% early INDY vote for Obama=236,094
Total early vote estimated for Obama= 1,313,053 (53.60%, +8.8%)

18% early DEM vote for McCain= 238,536
90% early REP vote for McCain= 696,732
46% early INDY vote for McCain=217,206
Total early vote estimated for McCain= 1,152,474 (44.8%, -8.8%)


Note 1: crosstabs in polls have higher margins of error. PPP’s crosstabs appear more or less in line with R2K’s and Zogby’s (from what little we can see of Zogby’s) polls of NC out in the last week.

Note 2: it is entirely likely that Obama’s support among early voters is higher than the estimate here (key stat=more African American women Democrats have voted than white male Republicans) and that McCain’s support is higher among remaining voters in the pool than PPP’s crosstabs might suggest.


THE FOLLOWING SCENARIOS ARE BASED ON ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL
(EARLY VOTING SUPPORT LEVELS BY CROSSTAB=OVERALL SUPPORT LEVELS BY CROSSTAB)


SCENARIO 1: 2008 matches the previous high water turnout in NC (69% of all REGISTERED VOTERS)
McCain needs to win the rest of the pool by 12.9% or Obama wins NC

SCENARIO 2: 75% turnout of all registered voters
McCain needs to win the rest of the pool by 10.62% or Obama wins NC

SCENARIO 3: 80% turnout of all registered voters
McCain needs to win the rest of the pool by 9.25% or Obama wins NC

SCENARIO 4: 85% turnout of all registered voters
McCain needs to win the rest of the pool by 8.21% or Obama wins NC

SCENARIO 5: 90% turnout of all registered voters
McCain needs to win the rest of the pool by 7.37% or Obama wins NC

SCENARIO 6: 95% turnout of all registered voters
McCain needs to win the rest of the pool by 6.69% or Obama wins NC


Can McCain pull the numbers to take NC? It depends on who shows up, obviously. More Democrats remain in the pool than Republicans, but Obama holds less of his party’s support than McCain. (Indies are a virtual wash. )

We can assume the more organized campaign will do better in NC, but can we therefore assume that they’ve already gotten most of their support to vote—-or does the Obama Camp have a fresh wave about to crash ashore? Does the largely unpaid McCain ground team have a mechanism to turnout Republicans in its much-hyped 72-hour final blitzkrieg?

HERE’S A SHORTHAND WAY TO FIGURE THE ELECTION DAY EXIT POLLS on Tuesday—all things being equal: take the percentage gap between Party voting (%Democrats – %Republicans) and subtract 12.6% from that to get a ballpark of Obama’s probable margin. E.g., if Democrats make up 41% of the Election Day vote and Republicans 33% (which, incidentally, are the proportions remaining of registered voters), the difference is 8. Subtract 12.6% from 8% and Obama would be running at a 4.6% deficit on Election Day. (IF the crosstabs hold up.) All things being equal under the above Scenarios, that makes NC BLUE, unless turnout is impossibly way over 100%. The Polls of LIKELY VOTERS assume a higher turnout for Republicans, because just about everybody has the state as pick 'em.

(If exit polls account for early voting and Election Day voting, too, the same calculation gives you the ballpark margin/likely winner regardless of turnout—IF the crosstabs hold up).

(If you’re squeamish, make the adjustment 16% instead of 12.6%.)

In short, NC looks good, and if DEMS turnout our vote, then Obama’s lead is insurmountable. If REPUBLICANS do, it could be trouble.

[Demi_Babe]

1. Obama will win my state...just watch! ;-)

[Minimus]

2. We are working our asses off here and NC is going blue!

[bluemarkers]

3. wow

that makes my head hurt, but I'm impressed. :) Thanks for the hard work. I'm more of an artsy Dem, so I had to read through a few times - looks like what you are saying is that there is a strong possibility of NC going blue! whoo hoo!! good news indeed. :)

I'm hoping that many of the Republicans who haven't yet voted will not be as willing to stand in line as the Democrats - that enthusiasm gap is important.

Do you really think 18% of Dems voted McCain? I think that may be too high. I know they are out there though.

[Demi_Babe]

4. those dems would be Dixiecrats so it is possible the number is correct

[bluemarkers]

5. thought we were through

with them! oh well.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

6. not necessarily Dixiecrats, but conservative.

[musicblind]

7. WOW. You should do this for a living. That is just outstanding!

I really have few words to say other than to drop my mouth.

Your data was everything I could have wished for and more. I am bookmarking this thread because this information will help get me through the rest of Nov. 4th.

Thank you

Thank you

Thank you

[Awsi Dooger]

8. That looks excellent but I had Obama's lead a bit higher

Prior to the final day of early voting I tinkered with an Excel model and had Obama up 160,000. Incorporating the final day it would have been above your estimate of roughly 161,000, probably about 175,000.

It's definitely more real world than some of the wacky estimates of 300,000+.