Pollster - regarding landline only vs landline/cell poll -- would add 29 EV 396 O

[grantcart]

Worthwhile read about how the support for Obama among cell phone only voters is even higher than they originally thought:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/final_update_on_the_cell_phone.php

If you make no CPO adjustment and give each state to the candidate currently leading, Obama wins 367 electoral votes, narrowly losing Indiana, Montana, and Georgia and narrowly winning North Carolina and Missouri. Making a conservative CPO adjustment by adding 2% to Obama's margin in each state pushes Indiana and Montana into Obama's column, giving him 381 electoral votes. Finally, if you make a 4% CPO adjustment to Obama's margins in each state (based on the differences in the national trends), Georgia suddenly shifts into Obama's column, giving him 396 electoral votes. Of course, it is important to keep in mind that the cell phone only population is not evenly distributed across the 50 states so not all states will be affected in the same way. But if you believe that there is a cell phone only effect that the state trends are not capturing, then states like Virginia, Nevada, and Ohio are not even that close right now and Obama has a good chance of winning in Indiana, Montana, Georgia, and possibly even Arizona.

Tomorrow night, we will have a better sense of how much a difference the CPO population has made in polling this race. Which of the national trends presented here comes closer to pegging the final popular vote tally? Does Obama win some of the states where the polls show him behind by a few percentage points? The bigger the Obama margin in the national vote and electoral college, the more likely that some pollsters missed some of his support by failing to reach the CPO population.

[ej510]

1. That's if the youth voters vote.

[bigscott]

2. not just

I am 48 years old and have not had a land line in 6 years

[cliffordu]

3. I know FIVE different people who have no land lines that are voting Obama -

and NONE of them have ever been polled.

[Roland99]

4. *IF*...the 18-34 group is the largest group of Obama supporters in PA

[dbackjon]

5. Two Arizonans in my household without land line

Two votes for Obama...