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Edited on Mon Nov-03-08 12:59 PM by darius15
NATIONAL: Obama 52, McCain 46
WASHINGTON: Obama 56, McCain 43
McCain can expect support in the rural conservative areas, but will not overcome Obama's margin in Seattle and the suburbs.
OREGON: Obama 56, McCain 41
Strong turnout in the cities will make this a blowout.
CALIFORNIA:Obama 59, McCain 38
We will get about 75-80% of Latinos. We'll do strongly in the Bay Area and LA County.
ALASKA: McCain 57, Obama 42
Although it's not in play this year, there are signs that Alaska has gotten bluer, which is great for future Dems.
HAWAII: Obama 64, McCain 35
They love him here.
IDAHO: McCain 62, Obama 35
Will definitely stay red.
NEVADA: Obama 51, McCain 46
We need strong turnout in Clark and Washoe County, and we will win the state if we can do that.
UTAH: McCain 62, Obama 36
Probably the last state in the union to go blue.
ARIZONA: McCain 52, Obama 47
We won't pull it off this year, but if McCain wasn't the homestate senator, then this would be a top tier swing state, which is great for future Dems.
MONTANA: McCain 50, Obama 47
We're actually pretty close here, and Ron Paul may scrape off a few percent, so keep your hopes up!
WYOMING: McCain 61, Obama 36
The land of Dick Cheney. Nuff said.
COLORADO: Obama 52, McCain 46
We have great ground organization here. We will get strong turnout and numbers in Denver and the suburbs, and we will keep our margins down in the rural parts.
NEW MEXICO: Obama 54, McCain 46
We are doing much better among Hispanics than Kerry did against Bush, and that will be critical in this state.
NORTH DAKOTA: McCain 47, Obama 47
Unbelievable. With turnout, we can win this! Ron Paul will scrape off some votes, once again.
SOUTH DAKOTA: McCain 54, Obama 45
Closer than 04, but not in play.
NEBRASKA: McCain 58, Obama 39
Not in play.
KANSAS: McCain 56, Obama 39
Not in play.
OKLAHOMA: McCain 64, Obama 36
Very red state. Even many Dems here are very conservative.
TEXAS: McCain 56, Obama 43
We won't lose by the margins Kerry did, but this state is not in play. Give it about 10-20 years.
MINNESOTA: Obama 53, McCain 42
Strong turnout in the liberal twin cities, and northern Minnesota. We'll win this easy.
IOWA: Obama 54, McCain 41
Obama is a favorite son here, and McCain probably pissed off way too many corn ethanol farmers here. Expect Obama to do well in rural Iowa, which is magnificent.
MISSOURI: Obama 49, McCain 49
Will be the closest state in this election. It's fitting because Bush won this state by 7 percent in 04, and it just shows how much McCain is struggling. One thing to watch for is how much turnout we get in St.Louis and Kansas City.
ARKANSAS: McCain 54, Obama 44
Although Hillary came down here to see if she could shore up some support, Arkansas won't go blue without a Clinton on the ticket.
LOUISIANA: McCain 54, Obama 43
Much like the rest of the Deep South. Expect overwhelming turnout and support from blacks, but white voters will vote overwhelmingly Republican.
WISCONSIN: Obama 54, McCain 43
Pretty similar to Minnesota.
ILLINOIS: Obama 61, McCain 37
Obama is from here. Expect a huge election rally after its over.
MICHIGAN: Obama 54, McCain 41
Large turnout in Wayne County, and anger at McCain for pulling out of the state= Large Obama victory.
FLORIDA: Obama 50, McCain 48
Down to the wire. Southeast FL (Miami, Broward, Palm Beach)will go strongly for us. Northern and Southwest FL will go strongly for McCain. The I-4 corridor (Tampa region) is the key. Whoever wins here will win the state.
MISSISSIPI: McCain 55, Obama 44
Blacks will go 98% for Obama. Whites will go 85% for McCain.
ALABAMA: McCain 61, Obama 38
Picture Mississippi with less black voters.
GEORGIA: McCain 51, Obama 48
We're getting great turnout in the Democratic counties. The highly conservative areas just don't like McCain that much. Not that they'll vote Obama, but it's unlikely they will go to the polls in the numbers they did for Bush.
SOUTH CAROLINA: McCain 55, Obama 45
It's pretty much Georgia without a big city like Atlanta.
NORTH CAROLINA: Obama 49, McCain 49
Why are we doing well here? Well, because AA's will turn out in record numbers. Obama is popular among the highly educated, so expect better than average numbers for the Democrat in the Research Triangle. Plus, Obama is good at basketball in this basketball crazy state.
TENNESSEE: McCain 57, Obama 42
Although Tennessee has pockets of blue, Eastern Tennessee is just too much to overcome.
KENTUCKY: McCain 56, Obama 42
Pretty similar to the rest of the bible belt. Watch the Senate seat though.
WEST VIRGINIA: McCain 54, Obama 44
Although it would be symbolic if Obama won here, it's not gonna happen. I think this is one of the few states where the Bill Ayers attack probably helped McCain.
VIRGINIA: Obama 52, McCain 47
Northern Virginia will go for Obama. Real Virginia will go for McCain. It will come down to the Hampton Roads area, where there are military vets, conservative whites, and many young and AA voters.
INDIANA: McCain 50, Obama 49
Expect large numbers in Lake County and Indianapolis. We can win this, so keep your fingers crossed.
OHIO: Obama 50, McCain 46.
We will lose in rural Ohio, which is an extension of the bible belt. We will get large numbers from Cuyahoga County and other Dem areas up north.
PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 53, McCain 46
Sorry Johnny boy, but you're not gonna win PA. Philadelphia (85-15), Pittsburgh(65-35), and the Philly suburbs(60-40). Unless we shockingly lose one of those 3, we will win PA.
MARYLAND: Obama 59, McCain 38
Many black voters, and many affluent and liberal whites. No sweat.
DELAWARE: Obama 59, McCain 38
The land of Biden.
NEW JERSEY: Obama 55, McCain 40
Obama is pretty popular here, and the state is not going to vote for a Republican candidate unless it's a Repub landslide.
NEW YORK: Obama 62, McCain 35
New Yorkers are smart. Enough said.
CONNECTICUT: Obama 57, McCain 38
The richest state with one of the highest education levels in the country is safely Dem. Coincidence?
MASSACHUSETTS: Obama 58, McCain 38
Very blue. We have the support of Kerry and the Kennedy's.
RHODE ISLAND: Obama 60, McCain 38
No surprise here.
VERMONT: Obama 59, McCain 37
Very liberal state.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Obama 53, McCain 43
Although McCain is well liked here, it doesn't equal votes, and expect this state to be called for Obama shortly after the polls close.
MAINE: Obama 55, McCain 40
Pretty Dem, although maybe not as much as the rest of New England.
DC: Obama 84, McCain 14
Yeah.
Overall:
Safe Obama: 311 EV Safe McCain: 142 EV Toss Up (within 3 percent):85
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