All Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Models Predict a 100% Obama win probability (TIA) - x

[tiptoe]

All Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Models Predict a 100% Obama win probability

TruthIsAll      source: http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/FourMonteCarloModels.htm

Professionals and university students agree with the 2008 Election Model. Obama has a 100% probability of winning the election — not 90%, not 95%, but 100% — if ALL the votes are counted accurately and there is ZERO fraud.


Datawise Consulting   http://www.datawise-consulting.com/election.pdf
This report takes the latest poll data from each state and simulates possible outcomes of the national presidential election.
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DeSart and Holbrook  http://research.uvsc.edu/DeSart/forecasting
UPDATE - The latest run (Nov. 2) of our October Rolling forecast now predicts that Barack Obama will win the election with 53.92%* of the national 2-party popular vote
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University of Illinois  http://election08.cs.uiuc.edu
This web site has been developed by computer science and political science students. It determined a 100% Obama win probability.


270towin
An interactive site which runs 1000 Monte Carlo election trials. It also calculates a 100% Obama win probability.


Franklin & Marshall College  Simulation Shows Obama Will Win
Brian Adams, a mathematics and computer science professor, reports that there's a 99.98% chance that Sen. Barack Obama will win the presidential election on Tuesday. But his 50 million election trials were overkill. Only 5000 are necessary.

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Full text:  http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=4362093&mesg_id=4362093

 

[renate]

1. a couple of pretty big "if"s there!

An accurate count and no fraud? I wish. But those are worries in any election.

Thanks for the great news!

[tiptoe]

3. Big "IFs" (...but also a very big "red flag" should a 100% favorite "not win") n/t

[Kaleko]

2. Confirming my intuition

which has always been rated AAA ;-)