I changed my mind, Obama can definitely win Arizona...

[Wetzelbill]

His GOTV is awesome here. I'm in Tucson (Pima County) which will be a big key for Obama in AZ. He needs to win Pima County big. He should win it, the demographic is Blue and favors him, so what he really needs is turnout. If he wins Pima by 20 points, which is doable it would help him nullify the stronger areas of the state for McCain, like Maricopa County.

Marc Ambinder writes:

"Watch Pima County, the second largest after Maricopa. Obama is likely to win the county by a large margin. If he's going to win the state, and assuming that McCain takes Maricopa by five points or so, Obama will need a margin that is about 20 points over McCain, a tall task, but doable if turnout is very high. As of '06, Maricopa had 3.8 million people living in it; Pima had just under a million. (The margins cancel if turnout rates are equivalent in the two counties. )

Of course, it might be a long night in Pima County... local journalists expect delays and vote counting issues."

Now why I said his GOTV is awesome is because I have gotten several calls reminding me to vote over the last few weeks. They were fairly sparse, about normal compared to similar Dem calls I received in 2004 and 2006. But in the last few days it's been ramped up. I've received calls, gotten pamphlets left at my door, and today, alone, I have gotten several calls reminding me to vote for Obama and our Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords. Each person who called was courteous and informative. I have even gotten a visitor at my door who left me a pamphlet and reminded me to vote.

Of course, I'm hardcore, if I was run over by a semi I'd probably crawl to the polls to vote, but it's good to see Obama has people working hard for him, even in a state that isn't considered necessary and is his opponent's home turf.

Obama needs big turnout and he's going for broke. I think he has a shot to win Arizona.

And if this is any indication how good his GOTV is around the country than John McCain is in for a serious beatin' tomorrow.

[Dennis Donovan]

1. THAT would be sweet. The Repugs better see it as a wake-up call...

...that America is SICK and TIRED of their divisiveness.

[Wetzelbill]

9. what is hurting them is they've alienated

Significant voting blocs, like minorities and women. Then they've went and pissed off and insulted people with educations and then people who live in or near metropolitan areas. At some point, you need more than white males who live in rural areas. Conservative intellectuals are even jumping ship because the party has been so anti-intellectual. They have nothing to work with, no message, no accomplishments, all they have is hate and fear and that's not going to be able to sustain a national party by itself.

[ACTION BASTARD]

21. I know Dr's & RN's that are R's are

voting for Obama. The embracing of average joe stupidity in their party has annoyed them for the last time.

[Kali]

2. did you see Dean today?

short piece on KXCI 91.3 right now

[Wetzelbill]

6. no I didn't

I'll have to look into that.

[votetastic]

3. "By the time I get to Arizona"

[blondeatlast]

4. Good lord, WB--I think you are right. I am so wishing my parents could see tomorrow.

Arizona is gonna look lovely in blue.

[Wetzelbill]

5. He has a serious shot at it

It'll be tough, but I didn't think he'd put up this much of a fight for the state. It's going to be interesting. I'll be looking at both AZ and my home state of Montana tomorrow, I hope they both go blue!

[Cha]

7. Rec'd~ Come ON PIMA

County! I used to live in Arizona and went to school in Tucson for a year..so I can imagine all that going on down there with a million or more people since I was there:bounce:

[David Zephyr]

10. Hi zidzi.

My companion and I were calling into Arizona last week for Obama.

Thanks for being there through thick and thin, all the way.

I can finally say that I do believe we won this one.

[Cha]

15. Hey, David! Thanks for calling

AZ with your SO!

I can't wait until we officially know..we've been on such a long road together and we're on the precipice of something so big it's mind boggling!

[Wetzelbill]

12. I moved down here for school too

Almost seven years ago. :)

[Cha]

16. Awesome section of the country..

especially if you love Mexican Comida:9

[Wetzelbill]

19. oh and I do love it

:)

[tigereye]

8. if your GOTV is anything like here in PA, and it sounds like it is

I'd say we have a damn good chance of taking places we don't usually have a chance to win!

My son and I hung a lot of placards on doors today and we saw a lot of other folks doing the same in my town.


:bounce:

[Wetzelbill]

11. that's some of the best news I've heard

Hopefully others can respond and we'll get a better idea.

[tigereye]

17. good idea!

:hi:

[AZBlue]

13. Here in Maricopa County too.

There aren't enough phone lines to go around, LOL!

[Wetzelbill]

20. this is exciting

Looking at the numbers just a little bit, makes me believe he has a chance here.

[Alexander]

14. Maricopa County is a tossup. Don't count on McCain winning it.

Part of the reason Obama could take AZ is because of McCain's terrible numbers in Maricopa County.

The Harry Mitchell/David Schweikert and John Shadegg/Bob Lord races will help Democratic turnout.

I'm bringing some friends to the Obama HQ tomorrow to make some phone calls.

At this point, it's all about getting our people to the polls and hoping McCain's "friends" stay home.

[Wetzelbill]

18. That's good news too

Maricopa is Harry Mitchell country, that guy is a big asset.

[AZSlacker]

22. I'm sure he will crush McCain here in southern AZ

It is northern AZ that he'll have problems. There are alot of morans up there (I should know, it is where I was raised). I'm hoping we will outnumber them.