Election 2008 - Predictions and What to Expect Tuesday Night

[stevenleser]

http://www.opednews.com/articles/Election-2008--Prediction-by-Steven-Leser-081103-41.html

(Fellow DUers, sorry the below table doesnt display correctly. Please check the above link!)
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November 3, 2008

Election 2008 - Predictions and What to Expect Tuesday Night

By Steven Leser


What we sometimes forget as we head towards another election night is that the polls don't all close at the same time. The difference even in the same time zone can be stark. There are six states on the East coast that have polls that close at 7pm and there are some that close at 8pm and some that close at 9pm. This can cause an unusual ebb and flow to the election night race and coverage. A candidate that does well in several of the states that close at 7pm can appear to be ahead.

We have a race where Barack Obama is clearly ahead and increasing his lead in the last few days of national polling and where we have tightening polls in some battleground states. Making this more complicated this year is that some 32 states allow early voting including some of the states whose polls are tightening.

OK, enough disclaimers. I see Obama winning 359 electoral votes to McCain's 179. I believe that at approximately 10:30pm, enough states will have been called for Obama to give him over 270 electoral votes. I believe Obama will get 54% of the popular vote to McCain's 43%.

Below shows the time I believe each state will have its results called by the various network and cable news networks. An interesting point of this is that after 7pm and the first polls close, McCain will be ahead by a score of 16 electoral votes to 3. That will be the one and only time he is ahead.

State
EV Obama McCain Polls Close (EST) Time Called (EST) Total Obama Electoral Votes Total McCain Electoral Votes
Kentucky 8 41 56 7:00 PM 7:00 PM 0 8
Vermont 3 58 39 7:00 PM 7:00 PM 3 8
South Carolina 8 41 55 7:00 PM 7:00 PM 3 16
Score after 7:00pm 3 16

Alabama 9 40 59 8:00 PM 8:00 PM 3 25
Connecticut 7 59 35 8:00 PM 8:00 PM 10 25
DC 3 92 8 8:00 PM 8:00 PM 13 25
Delaware 3 60 37 8:00 PM 8:00 PM 16 25
Illinios 21 62 36 8:00 PM 8:00 PM 37 25
Maine 4 58 41 8:00 PM 8:00 PM 41 25
Maryland 10 63 35 8:00 PM 8:00 PM 51 25
Massachusetts 12 64 33 8:00 PM 8:00 PM 63 25
Oklahoma 7 36 61 8:00 PM 8:00 PM 63 32
Score after 8:00pm 63 32

Mississippi 6 43 55 8:00 PM 8:30 PM 63 38
New Jersey 15 55 42 8:00 PM 8:30 PM 78 38
Score after 8:30pm 78 38

Tennessee 11 44 53 8:00 PM 9:00 PM 78 49
Arkansas 6 46 52 8:30 PM 9:00 PM 78 55
Kansas 6 40 60 9:00 PM 9:00 PM 78 61
Louisiana 9 40 57 9:00 PM 9:00 PM 78 70
Nebraska 5 36 59 9:00 PM 9:00 PM 78 75
New York 31 63 32 9:00 PM 9:00 PM 109 75
Rhode Island 4 62 33 9:00 PM 9:00 PM 113 75
Wisconsin 10 57 40 9:00 PM 9:00 PM 123 75
Wyoming 3 35 63 9:00 PM 9:00 PM 123 78

Score after 9:00pm 123 78

Virginia 13 50 47 7:00 PM 9:30 PM 136 78
Ohio 20 51 44 7:30 PM 9:30 PM 156 78
New Hampshire 4 52 45 8:00 PM 9:30 PM 160 78
New Mexico 5 56 41 9:00 PM 9:30 PM 165 78

Score after 9:30pm 165 78

West Virginia 5 46 50 7:30 PM 9:45 PM 165 83

Score after 9:45pm 165 83

Indiana 11 49 51 7:00 PM 10:00 PM 165 94
North Carolina 15 51 49 7:30 PM 10:00 PM 180 94
Florida 27 51 46 8:00 PM 10:00 PM 207 94
Missouri 11 47 51 8:00 PM 10:00 PM 207 105
Colorado 9 54 43 9:00 PM 10:00 PM 216 105
Michigan 17 54 44 9:00 PM 10:00 PM 233 105
Utah 5 36 61 10:00 PM 10:00 PM 233 110

Score after 10:00pm 233 110

Georgia 15 48 49 7:00 PM 10:30 PM 233 125
Pennsylvania 21 52 47 8:00 PM 10:30 PM 254 125
Arizona 10 47 53 9:00 PM 10:30 PM 254 135
Minnesota 10 52 45 9:00 PM 10:30 PM 264 135
South Dakota 3 45 52 9:00 PM 10:30 PM 264 138
Texas 34 44 51 9:00 PM 10:30 PM 264 172
Iowa 7 54 42 10:00 PM 10:30 PM 271 172
Nevada 5 55 43 10:00 PM 10:30 PM 276 172

Score after 10:30pm 276 172

California 55 62 34 11:00 PM 11:00 PM 331 172
Hawaii 4 71 25 11:00 PM 11:00 PM 335 172
Idaho 4 35 62 11:00 PM 11:00 PM 335 176
Washington 11 56 39 11:00 PM 11:00 PM 346 176

Score after 11:00 pm 346 176

Montana 3 51 49 10:00 PM 12:00 AM 349 176
Oregon 7 53 44 11:00 PM 12:00 AM 356 176

Score after 12:00 am 356 176

North Dakota 3 51 47 11:00 PM 1:00 AM 359 176
Alaska 3 40 57 1:00 AM 1:00 AM 359 179

Score after 1:00am 359 179





So, of the ten battleground states, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, Colorado, New Hampshire and Virgina, I give eight to Obama and only Indiana and Montana to McCain. I believe Obama will hold Pennsylvania comfortably.

Obviously, no one should decide they do not need to vote as a result of a prediction. Predictions count on people voting who planned to vote, but at this time, I see a historic victory for Barack Obama.

[smiley_glad_hands]

1. This is awesome and will help quell the nervousness.eom