** ANOTHER Prediction thread - This time for YOUR state only ** - GEORGIA O(49%) M(47%)

[Dawgs]

I live in Georgia and predict that Obama will win 49% to 47% with 2-3% going to Barr.

Here's why.

1) Passion. I stood in line with my wife in the cold, wind, and rain a week and a half before the election. Almost all of the voters looked like Obama supporters. Nobody left, and it was miserable.

2) African Americans made up 35% of the early vote. If these numbers hold, Obama will only need 26+% of those that are left (white and other) to win.

3) Barr was on the ballot, Nader was NOT. I predict at least a 2-3% outcome for Barr.

4) The white vote. Kerry received 24% of the white vote. According to a post at fivethirtyeight.com, Obama will outperform both Kerry and Gore. Gore did much better than Kerry and Obama only needs 27% of the white vote to win(see my calculation below).

Obama - AA vote(90%/31.4%) + white vote(26%/15.6%) + other(50%/2%) = 49%
McCain - AA vote(10%/4.1%) + white vote(68%/41.1%) + other(50%/2%) = 47%
Key: (Percentage of group/Calculated % of total vote)

As you can see, my numbers are pretty conservative. Obama should do better with African Americans and other.

[Liberal_in_LA]

1. California prediction: Historic blowout for Obama

[Secret_Society]

2. NY O (59%) M (40%)

[ncgrits]

3. NC: 49% Obama 46% McCain with some to Barr. nt

[Dawgs]

4. Is Nader on the ballot in NC?

:hi:

[Buzz Clik]

5. Indiana: McCain 51%, Obama 49%

Indiana is a tough nut for Dems to crack.

[Phoonzang]

6. Delaware: Obama: WOW McCain: LOL nt

[dmallind]

7. I'm new to NY but 61-37 is my guess. NT

[WhollyHeretic]

8. Connecticut: 63 Obama 35 McFail and question one gets defeated

[Jackpine Radical]

9. WI 53 O, 44 M, 3 other

[NotThisTime]

10. VT: 60-40 MA: 55-45

Pure speculation, I might be on the high end for VT where we now live and low on the MA area where we moved from.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

11. Maryland: Obama 3194843% McCain -509543%

I know, I know, you're thinking that's unpossible. But I assure you -- this is the Crab State, baby! :-)

[nxylas]

12. My state is South Carolina

So I predict I'm going to be very depressed at the stupidity of the people around me.