Tarrance projects a tossup...50.2 Obama - 48.3 McCain

[S_E_Fudd]

Oh boy. As you know, Battleground (pdf) is a polling firm done by a Democratic firm and a Republican firm. In 2004, the final of the Republican firm, Tarrance, nailed the actual vote-- off by one decimal point.

They've come out today with their final projection of 50.2 for Obama and 48.3 for McCain, .9 for Barr and .6 for Nader.

Sure, this looks good enough, but when you factor in that 20M of the total of 130M votes comes from CA & NY, where Obama racks up nearly a 2:1 majority going by the polls, it means that McCain would lead in the other 48 states, where the battlegrounds are happening.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/11/4/114725/384

[SidDithers]

1. 2008 is not 2004...nt

Sid

[dennis4868]

2. this is just what I needed...

to see today....

:-(

[HughMoran]

3. Gee thanks for cherry picking the lowest number of all

Idiotic thing to do on election day ass hole.

[Name removed]

13. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[LostinVA]

4. Ciao -- thanks for playing FA

[HughMoran]

5. You're on ignore for this stunt

ass hole

[elocs]

6. Let's hold their feet to the fire--all these pollster who end up being badly wrong.

Let's never allow those who botch this election that they were wrong, wrong, wrong. On the other hand, let's always remember the ones who got it right and point to them in the future.

[thewiseguy]

7. Jerome Armstrong should shut the fuck up

[Arugula Latte]

55. Definitely. I'm fucking sick of Mr. Gloom and Doom.

He hates Obama -- was a big Hillarite.

[GalleryGod]

8. Throw out your model, Newbie

eom

[high density]

9. So Obama wins with >50% of the vote

Works for me.

[dennis4868]

12. but the OP...

was trying to get us down by saying most of those votes are coming from CA and NY so McCain wins the election vy virtue of receiving more EVs....

[high density]

The individual state polling seems to say otherwise

There is nothing in the PDF that talks about EVs. Jerome Armstrong, whoever he is, is an idiot for trying to bring EVs into a poll that has no way to gauge EVs.

A national headwind of 2pts for McCain could mean the difference in some of these close states.

[alcibiades_mystery]

10. Silly PUMA losers search far and wide for the lamest poll in history

Go fuck a duck, PUMA loser.

[Drunken Irishman]

11. So we're supposed to believe McCain will carry 48 states to Obama's 2?

[still_one]

14. what is your point? /nt

[WeDidIt]

15. This is the Great Freep Hope poll

The Freeps and Drudge have been pimping the GWU/Battleground poll all election long. It's bullshit.

[alcibiades_mystery]

19. To quote my man Ice Cube...the bigger the cap

The bigger the peelin'...

Let them get their hopes up. It will be all the more humorous when they're buried under the landslide.

[EconomicLiberal]

16. Tarrance is a GOP firm.

The final Battleground tracking poll had Obama at 49 and McCain at 44.

The GOP firm gave 4 out of every 5 undecideds to McCain. Unlikely.

[tpi10d]

17. even the conservative Rasmussen at +6

Which is an automated poll-unlikely to have any Bradley effect.

Other polls at +9, particularly ones which poll cell phones.

Also Battleground was at plus 5 the day before...and nothing much has happened.

Looks like an outlier to me.

[still_one]

18. Looking at your other post, the one you said the NH county which went for Obama

the only other time it went for a Democratic was Humphrey, who lost, tells me what you real agenda is bud

Your stay most likely won't be too long here

[S_E_Fudd]

20. Bizarre...talk about cherry picking...

Did you look at all my posts...?

Amazing...if everyone here were so secure in their certaintly of an overwhelming Obama victory - which I hope for - this should not bother you...

As for New Hampshire...was I incorrect?

Is only good news for dems allowed here?

Weird...

[still_one]

21. This is s_e_fudd's other post

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=7731819#7731933

Seems to go out of his way to demoralize

It will be quite entertaining when his boy mccain loses

[S_E_Fudd]

22. Really? Is that my ONE other post?

Are you sure I haven't made others? You might wanna check again!!!

[GrizzlyMan]

25. Why would anyone bother

You are a moron.

[Name removed]

30. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[still_one]

32. I didn't do an archive check, but the main point is why would you post a poll out of the norm

of the other polls on election day?

[S_E_Fudd]

40. It's a poll from a legitimate...though admittedly right leaning polling firm...

I wasn't aware only good news was allowed here...

I didn't conduct the poll...

[still_one]

46. Of course you can post whatever you want, but on election day with so much at stake

what do you expect?

People's emotions are on edge

[S_E_Fudd]

49. I can understand that of course...I feel the same way...but

Why is the OP here not the target of the types of namecalling I have been...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7749517&mesg_id=7749517

[alcibiades_mystery]

50. What? You want to be called a drama queen, too?

Fine. You're a fucking PUMA troll and dumbfuck drama queen.

[S_E_Fudd]

54. I genuinely interested...

I simply posted a poll, from a legit though admittedly right leaning firm and I am a PUMA troll...

Others post claims the election will be stolen based on nothing more than speculation...and that is ok

What's the difference?

[Name removed]

57. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[thewiseguy]

24. He makes me sick

:puke:

[Jennicut]

23. HAHAHHAHA! Needed a good laugh today. You guys realize

that Bush beat Kerry by two% points, just like this poll. No way is this happening. Nope, they simply gave the undecideds all to McCain which is simply not happening. This poll has been low for Obama the whole time. Its looks like it will be more like a 6 to 7% win, 3 to 4 if one is being very cautious. Big turnout is good for Dems, not Rethugs. Nobody should get down with this poll or take it seriously. Obama has a huge early vote lead in CO. No way McLame is taking all the battlegrounds. I know they were accurate in 2004 but the was for BUSH. No way will they say Obama will win as they are majorly pro Rethug and did the polling for Bush-Cheney 2004 campaign!

[Upton]

26. I notice Battleground Lake projects Obama +5

what's the difference between Battleground Tarrance and Battlegound Lake?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/11-4-ballot%2Bballot-prediction-rcp.pdf

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. Celinda Lake Is The Democratic Half-It's A Bipartisan Poll

~

[Upton]

36. I see..thanks

[WI_DEM]

27. Hey Elmer Fudd only poll that counts today is the actual returns.

[Jennicut]

28. No one take this poll seriously. You guys all realize

that Bush beat Kerry by two% points, just like this poll. No way is this happening. Nope, they simply gave almost all the undecideds all to McCain which is simply not happening. This poll has been low for Obama the whole time. Its looks like it will be more like a 6 to 7% win, 3 to 4 if one is being very cautious. Big turnout is good for Dems, not Rethugs. Nobody should get down with this poll or take it seriously. Obama has a huge early vote lead in CO. No way McLame is taking all the battlegrounds. I know they were accurate in 2004 but the was for BUSH. No way will they say Obama will win as they are majorly pro Rethug and did the polling for Bush-Cheney 2004 campaign!

[Cosmic Charlie]

29. does S E stand for Shiteater? Because that's what this poll is

[S_E_Fudd]

39. I sincerely hope you are correct...

eom

[rucky]

33. I used to like that site.

bummer.

[S_E_Fudd]

41. Jerome Armstrong is the resident skeptic over there...

Nothing wrong with that...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

42. He's A Hillary Supporter Who Hasn't Gotten Over It

And as one of the most stalwart Hillary supporters on this board and in real life I say Mr. Armstrong can fuck himself ...

DSB

[Mossbeach]

34. Tarrance worked for the McCain Campaign this year...

...he was as a Senior Strategist for McCain's Straight Talk America political action committee and for the 2008 presidential campaign.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. How Come I Did An Auto-Search On Fudd And Nothing Comes Up?

~

[S_E_Fudd]

37. Apparently you aren't using it properly...nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

59. I Can't Wait To Bump This Thread After Obama Wins And Stick It Up Your PUMA @#$%%@!

~

[izzybeans]

38. Well Clarence told me "nuh uh, He's got this shit sewed up."

Thanks for the random numbers, from another random "pollster".

[AndyA]

43. Low post count...just disregard.

No doubt there are many in pain today.

Thanks for contributing nothing. :eyes:

[RagAss]

44. Thank You Mr. Hannity !

[David__77]

45. Lol, Obama will win with a majority. He'll win PA.

He'll win IA, NM, and NV. That's all we need. I'll take 269 electoral votes if that's the breaks.

[S_E_Fudd]

47. I agree...nt

[IsItJustMe]

48. FAIL

[smiley_glad_hands]

51. Epic fail Mr. Puma. eom

[DemocratSinceBirth]

52. Is Fudd A PUMA?

I tried to do an autosearch and came up empty...

Can someone do an autosearch and link it for me...

[S_E_Fudd]

56. I'll save you the trouble...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7726568&mesg_id=7726786

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7725167&mesg_id=7725316

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7725167&mesg_id=7725167

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7718386&mesg_id=7718386

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7717881&mesg_id=7717881

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7717427&mesg_id=7717675

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7715786&mesg_id=7715901

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7711085&mesg_id=7711085

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7710754&mesg_id=7710965

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7710772&mesg_id=7710892


Some of my recent postings

[AlCzervik]

53. is there a reason i should interested in this?

[mrreowwr_kittty]

58. I'll see that bullshit prediction and raise them Intrade

Behold:

Intrade's presidential markets show Obama having a huge advantage this morning.



All markets will remain open for trading until final results are confirmed.




Barack Obama
John McCain

The Next President*
91%
9%




While 91% for Obama is a very robust endorsement, McCain should win approximately 1 in 10 times based on his price above.



Battleground states are trading as follows…



State*
Barack Obama (364 Votes)
John McCain (174 Votes)

Florida (27)
77%
25%

Pennsylvania (21)
93%
8%

Ohio (20)
84%
20%

Georgia (15)
30%
70%

North Carolina (15)
61%
40%

Virginia (13)
88%
12%

Missouri (11)
57%
50%

Indiana (11)
38%
68%

Nevada (5)
91%
13%

New Mexico (5)
95%
10%

North Dakota (3)
29%
80%

Montana (3)
26%
70%




On Intrade's Total Electoral Vote markets, Obama has a 90% probability of getting more than 300 electoral votes and a 50% chance of getting more than 360 electoral votes.*



Intrade's markets also indicate an 87% chance that voter turnout will be greater than 60% of the voting age population. Overnight the chances of the turnout being over 65% jumped by 15.8 points to 29%.*



The markets for the 2010 US Midterms and 2012 US Election are already open and trading.



*All prices as at 9.30am ET on November 4th 2008.



For more information contact [e-mail]

_______________________________