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538 Update: McCain's win percentage is 1.1%! Final Projection!

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Whalestoe Donating Member (928 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 12:51 PM
Original message
538 Update: McCain's win percentage is 1.1%! Final Projection!
Edited on Tue Nov-04-08 01:23 PM by Whalestoe
It's Tuesday, November 4th, 2008, Election Day in America. The last polls have straggled in, and show little sign of mercy for John McCain. Barack Obama appears poised for a decisive electoral victory.

Our model projects that Obama will win all states won by John Kerry in 2004, in addition to Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Florida and North Carolina, while narrowly losing Missouri and Indiana. These states total 353 electoral votes. Our official projection, which looks at these outcomes probabilistically -- for instance, assigns North Carolina's 15 electoral votes to Obama 59 percent of the time -- comes up with an incrementally more conservative projection of 348.6 electoral votes.

We also project Obama to win the popular vote by 6.1 points; his lead is slightly larger than that in the polls now, but our model accounts for the fact that candidates with large leads in the polls typically underperform their numbers by a small margin on Election Day.


www.fivethirtyeight.com
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dubeskin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 12:52 PM
Response to Original message
1. Excellent!
And now for the Obama-wave to move across the nation, turning this great country blue!
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GreenPartyVoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 12:53 PM
Response to Original message
2. And he has NO chance of winning with ME dist 2. Woot!
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racaulk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 12:53 PM
Response to Original message
3. Beautiful!
GOBAMA!

:bounce:
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No Elephants Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 12:54 PM
Response to Original message
4. That figure is not Barack's chance of winning. It is the percentage by which Barack will win.
Edited on Tue Nov-04-08 12:55 PM by No Elephants
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Political Heretic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 12:55 PM
Response to Reply #4
7. Um..... no. That's not correct.
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mohc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 01:01 PM
Response to Reply #4
10. The 1.1% chance is McCain's chances of winning
Based on the current polling data, 10000 simulations were run. McCain won 112 of those simulations, or 1.12% (Nate rounded it to 1.1%). He is predicting about a 6% lead for Obama in the popular vote.
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Guy Whitey Corngood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 12:55 PM
Response to Original message
5. "So what you're saying is that I still have a chance?"
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DerekJ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 12:56 PM
Response to Reply #5
8. LOL
:rofl:
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BootinUp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 01:09 PM
Response to Reply #5
12. lol
but seriously that is something I picture a republican saying.
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Guy Whitey Corngood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 01:51 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. Yeah, I think they refer to it as being functionally tied in the polls. nt
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ncgrits Donating Member (400 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 12:55 PM
Response to Original message
6. I'm hoping for a negative number. nt
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WeDidIt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 12:59 PM
Response to Original message
9. I'M RUNNIN' A FEEEEVER, OF 98.9!!!!!!
Let's run that puppy up to 100!!!!!
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Schulzz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 01:01 PM
Response to Original message
11. "My friends, we've got them just where we want them!"
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dennis4868 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-04-08 01:09 PM
Response to Original message
13. based on what?
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