Politico: Twenty-five Counties to Watch Tonight

[featherman]

"In presidential elections, not all counties are created equal.Generally, the counties that matter most are located in closely contested states, where they play a key role in determining the winner. Thus the most populous county in the U.S. — Los Angeles County, located in safely Democratic California — isn’t nearly as important in determining this election as the 95th largest county — Albuquerque’s Bernalillo County, the gateway to winning the swing state of New Mexico.

Of the 2,530 counties that George W. Bush carried in 2004, or the 583 that John Kerry won, just a few dozen stood out for reasons of competitiveness, population size or for what insights their voting habits revealed.
With that calculus in mind, here are 25 critical counties that could help determine the winner of this year's race.

1) Washoe County, Nev.: The second-most populous county in the state and home to Reno, once-reliably Republican Washoe gave Bush a narrow 51 percent to 47 percent win in 2004. McCain needs to run at least as well in Washoe and win Nevada’s rural counties to overcome Obama’s expected win in Nevada’s population hub, Las Vegas’ Clark County.

2) Douglas County, Neb.: It seems almost unthinkable that Omaha’s Douglas County, which gave Bush 58 percent of its votes in 2004, would make this list. But because Nebraska is one of just two states that allocates an electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district, rather than awarding them all to the statewide vote winner, the Obama campaign has made a determined effort to win the Douglas County-based 2nd district — the least Republican of Nebraska’s three seats. In a close race, that one electoral vote might make all the difference."

Full list and article at: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1108/15254.html

For those of us who like to watch the county by county results in key states as the night progresses. Washoe is a particular favorite of mine since I did some campaign work there this year. I'll be watching it closely.

[sjdnb]

1. My county is on that list

Makes me feel even better about volunteering.

[pinto]

2. Thanks for the post and link. Interesting local analysis, and as Politico is generally seen

to be a right leaning website, probably a good view on what trends the right is looking for in this election.