Pollster Calms Paranoid Dems: McCain Win Would Be Exceptionally Improbable

[babylonsister]

Pollster Calms Paranoid Dems: McCain Win Would Be Exceptionally Improbable
Sam Stein

November 4, 2008 12:21 PM


Even though every political and statistical indication points to an Obama victory tonight -- and a healthy one at that -- a certain brand of liberal paranoia persists. This is too good to be true, Democrats declare, fingers grasping at their hair. McCain is tightening the race in key states. The youth vote won't come out.

And so it goes.

But if in fact McCain were to win this election it would be, one of the nation's foremost pollster says, almost historically unprecedented.

"There is no reason in history to suggest {Obama won't win}," said Frank Newport of Gallup. "All you can go by is history and compare our last polling that we have done before the election and the actual outcome in the presidential election... We have most polls showing Obama with a statistically significant lead nationally and also in these states. If he were to lose, it will be the first time since World War II something like this has happened. Now, keep in mind. It's a small sample, less than 20 elections, but it would be very unusual, in fact, exceptional... improbable."

Indeed, the last time that Gallup's final poll before the election did not accurately determine the winning candidate was 1948, when they stopped polling a week before Harry Truman's comeback victory against Thomas Dewey. Even in 1980, when Ronald Reagan staged a late comeback that turned into an electoral rout, Gallup caught glimmers of this trend just in time, showing the Gipper up three points in its last poll.

When it comes to the current election, the firm has Obama up eleven points in its final survey. But what should make Democrats more assured, said Newport, is that the Illinois Democrat has maintained a steady margin throughout the past month.

"Since September 15, Obama has been ahead in every poll we have conducted or any other polling I have seen and often by substantial margins," he said. "It is not like it is race in which McCain was leading and we are seeing some kind of shift for Obama, it has been Obama ahead pretty dominantly."

Moreover, other polling firms are documenting similar trends -- a confluence of data that validates the larger picture.

more...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/04/pollster-calms-paranoid-d_n_140960.html

[jakem]

1. thank you.

:hug:

[Lifelong Protester]

2. Thank you thank you thank you!

Yes we will vote, and yes, we continue on in the work, but thank you for posting this piece of sanity.

[wroberts189]

3. in other words.. if mcgrampy wins ..it was stolen ..eom

[Rosa Luxemburg]

4. The GOP are running around here like rats on a burning ship

they are dragging old ladies to the polls anybody they can get their hands on! They have posted McPalin signs on the highways. This is a strong blue state but it is fun to watch them! Rats on a burning ship!

[babylonsister]

5. The visual is priceless! What state? nt

[uppityperson]

6. After the last 8 yrs, it isn't paranoia. You aren't paranoid if they really are out to get you.

Thank you for the post though.

[gizmo1979]

7. Bring on the results dammit!

[bdamomma]

8. thanks for the post.

calms me down a little. too much BS is being reported.

[Renew Deal]

9. We're screwed.

:evilgrin:

[babylonsister]

12. Ha! Those 100,000 rally goers last night combined with so

much huge turnout at all the Obama rallies recently have kind of mollified me. Sort of. ;)

[wildflower]

10. "fingers grasping at their hair"...

LOL, he must have seen me. :)

[KsStorm]

13. *SIGH*

Thanks! I haven't been able to go vote yet (have to wait for hubby & kids to get hme) & I am on pins & needles out here in the damn country!!!! Just me & the chickens! :scared:

[kenny blankenship]

11. Not unprecedented in one sense: 2000 is a great example of what I mean

They had to trim here and pad there and in the end they had to stop an ongoing legal vote count by the power of the Supreme Court of the United States, but they did what they had to do to get the President's son installed in the White House. One son accepting the crown from the other one. If McCain "won", it would be following that precedent.

It's too far apart for that this time, and McCain's people aren't Bush people. They also don't have control over the voting apparatus in the key states that they would need. McCain's brother isn't running Pennsylvania or Ohio. But still around the margins, you see them trying anyway.