Here we go: First exit poll numbers up next on CNN.

[Faygo Kid]

Bill Schneider, next.

[medeak]

1. thanks switching right now! n/t

[woolldog]

2. I thought exit polls were garbage?

[Uzybone]

4. They are

Don't put any stock in em.

[Faygo Kid]

5. Who cares? It's numbers. I want numbers. I crave numbers.

Cowbell, too.

[DrToast]

8. You thought wrong.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

10. Nah, they're fine.

Sometimes they're wrong, but usually they're fine.

[FatDave]

13. Don't put too much stock in them if they're close.

But if it's a huge margin, take it to the bank.

[woolldog]

32. really?

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit.html

[Iwasthere]

14. Exit polls used to be fairly accurate

... till B* came along. They were trusted and used by msm as an important tool. I think it is sad that now they are considered garbage. IMO the polls weren't off at all, Kerry's (and Gore's) numbers were swapped in the counting late into the evenings. the polls showing their wins were accurate !!!!!!

[avaistheone1]

19. True. Read the article by RFK Jr., as well as the deposition by Spoonomore.

[tclambert]

22. Butterfly ballot invalidated exit polls

Exit polls can tell you who voters thought]/b] they voted for. In Palm Beach County in 2000, people thought they voted for Gore but actually voted for Buchanan. In that case, the exit polls gave a more accurate tally of what the voters wanted than the election did. But the "official" votes weren't what they should have been.

Nate Silver says there's a lot of selection bias in the exit polls. It's hard to get a truly representative sample of voters.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Depends

~

[stillcool]

18. only in this country...

other countries use them to detect fraud. Our country does elections differently I guess.

[Franks Wild Years]

3. Obama will likely be overrepresented.

At least that's what I'll be telling myself to avoid getting too excited about later (should they be favorable to us).

If they look good for McCain, I'll begin the wallowing much earlier this year.

[WI_DEM]

6. remember they don't take into account early voting.

[spinbaby]

9. No early voting in PA

[brendan120678]

12. Obama probably will be very overrepresented this year...

People are excited about Obama. If stopped by the pollsters, the Democrats will gladly share with the pollsters that their vote was for Obama.
Republicans, however, aren't excited at all about McCain. They'll probably just brush by the pollsters if they try to get an opinion from the Republicans.
This will skew the results in Obama's favor.

[stillcool]

20. Is that the latest talking point?

[rucky]

7. I thought they weren't supposed to do that.

Not like I'll try to stop them or anything.

[Faygo Kid]

11. Still waiting. Blitzer promised them. Of course, that's Blitzer.

Better be up next after this break.

[Jackinbox]

16. They don't have them yet

"For much of the day, only a small group will have access to the exit poll, which is being conducted by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International for the National Election Pool, a consortium of the networks and the Associated Press. Three members from each outlet will be sequestered in an undisclosed location in New York, where they will analyze the results of questionnaires filled out by 100,000 voters nationwide. Their cellphones and BlackBerries will be taken away until 5 p.m. ET, when they will be allowed to share the data with their newsrooms."

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/la-et-election3-2008nov03,0,4781978.story


I wonder how long after 5 they will be leaked? Yes, I know they're not reliable but I still want to look at them.

[MindMatter]

17. Media whores. They can't help themselves.

I understood the rule to be that they couldn't present any polling data until the polls close. But that doesn't prevent them from reporting that they HAVE some exit poll data, and "You are going to be really amazed. So just sit there and watch all the ads we run for the next 4 hours."

[democrattotheend]

21. They won't show the vote. They'll give hints, show issue questions, demographics, etc

They won't show any vote breakdowns, but they may show what % different age or racial groups make up, what % of the voters rated each issue as most important, when people made up their mind, stuff like that. But hopefully someone will have leaked #'s after 5 online.

[FatDave]

23. And it'll probably be for New York or Vermont.

[democrattotheend]

29. Nah, probably the national survey

[HughMoran]

24. noooooo!

I don't wanna know!

Gotta hide this thread quickly!

[Cush]

25. 62% say Economy was their top concern

[scheming daemons]

26. Woot! That's a great number

[anneboleyn]

27. Economy was top concern for voters! overwhelmingly 62%

[itsrobert]

28. And that's "Breaking News"?

LMFAO.

[Phoonzang]

30. Goddamit you CNN fucking teases. You told us nothing.!!!!

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

31. Seriesly. I'm hughly disappointed~

:-(