Too Great a Lead to Steal: Exit Polls Indicate Obama Wins in VA, IN, NC, OH

[Time for change]

Indiana by 5
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=INP00p1

North Carolina by 3
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=NCP00p1

Ohio by 8
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=OHP00p1

Virginia by 9
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=VAP00p1


Too great a lead to steal
:bounce:

[Honeycombe8]

1. Okay, so are exit polls good or not? I hear they're good. I hear they're not. Wassup w/that? nt

[New Earth]

3. in every other country they are good

:eyes:

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

12. We'll find out I reckon...9 in VA seems high...

[Time for change]

53. It was a little high

But not so high that he didn't get all 13 EVs. And VA would have won it alone, even if the only other states that Obama carried were the Gore/Kerry states. But he managed to win all 4 of these, that is, if he hangs onto NC.

[dhpgetsit]

15. Traditionally they are good

But in Diebold precincts they seem to fail.
What's up with that???
ELECTION REFORM!!!
First on the agenda!

[intheflow]

27. I think they were easily switched in 2004 and 2000

because the exit polls were within 4 or 5 points, IIRC, which is fairly close to the margin of error. But these are blow out numbers--way too far outside the margins to be wrong.

[Time for change]

29. There's no simple answer to that

But these leads are so great, that they couldn't possibly be wrong enough to give the election to McCain.

[roguevalley]

42. OHIO CALLED FOR OBAMA

[Time for change]

46. That's it. That's all Obama needed. It's over

[gypsylud]

2. I fucking Hate exit polls.

[Time for change]

8. They're important

This is almost prima facie evidence that Obama has won the election. They aren't going to let this one be stolen again.

[packerkid]

4. Encouraging indeed but still nervous.

Didn't we learn our lesson in '04? Just sit back and enjoy. We will BE VERY happy later tonight!

[thesubstanceofdreams]

5. Exit polls mean ABSOLUTELY NOTHING, LESS THAN ZERO

IGNORE EXIT POLLS PLEASE.

[Time for change]

6. Bullshit

These leads are huge, and they're all in red states. Even if we have the same huge red shift that we saw in 2004, Obama still wins easily. This is a landslide in the making. If Obama loses this, the exit poll discrepancy would be so great that it would never stand.

[noiretextatique]

9. right...exit polls are useful

if the numbers dramatically change, we know yet another theft is happening.

[Time for change]

26. Exactly

If McCain wins states that Obama has 9 or 10 point exit poll leads in, it simply won't be believable.

[Exultant Democracy]

17. In every other western democracy they are used as a check against fraud

In the US they mean "absolutely nothing" but they also showed that Kerry and Gore both won.

[The Backlash Cometh]

7. Is it possible? Is it happening!

[Awsi Dooger]

10. Screw exit polls

I hope they are off by several points again, yet Obama wins comfortably, so we can realize 2004 was phony outrage, and clowns like Steven Freeman drift off to the obscurity they deserve.

[girl gone mad]

11. NC was the only state I vascillated over..

in the electoral predictions thread. In the end, I thought McCain would squeak by, but I would love to be wrong.

[indepat]

13. Ding-dong, the hateful, wicked witch is dead

:toast:

[Time for change]

32. Landslide!

:toast:

[Occam Bandage]

14. Exit polls are meaningless. Didn't 2004 teach you anything?

[Bonn1997]

18. Yeah, they taught me that electronic voting machines' results are meaningless

[Time for change]

30. If Obama loses these states, these exit polls will provide very strong evidence of fraud

That's why they're important

[Bonn1997]

31. Agreed

[Time for change]

22. These leads are much greater than what Kerry had in the exit polls

And they're all in red states. There is no way this can be stolen.

[LisaL]

16. Kerry did pretty well on exit polls, as I recall,

Then all of the sudden Bush won.

[Time for change]

28. Kerry didn't do anywhere near this well in the exit polls

It's not even close. This is a landslide

[Nothing Without Hope]

19. OUTSTANDING!!!!! Thank you for this and all your important history of posts

K & R - I'm watching via Huffington Post's election multilink page:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/30/election-results-electora_n_139361.html

Irritating initial ad gives way to coverage, and all the widgets give multiple coverage.

[Time for change]

48. Thank you Hope -- Here's to President Obama

:toast:

[Nothing Without Hope]

49. Oh yeah! I can get behind that - and here's to fair elections in the future!!!

Lots of work there to do to dismantle the corrupt election fraud machine - but now we can do it!

:toast:

[TrogL]

20. By my calculations, that's enough (274)

I clicked those into CNN's map along with Florida and Pennsylvania (and California on edit) and that's 274

[Time for change]

23. He's going to be close to 400 before the night is over

[happychatter]

21. I just heard PA by as much as 15%... watch out, AK and AZ - NT

[amborin]

24. best site elections.ny times.com /2008/ results/president

Obama is winning Penn

and way ahead in Florida

but losing Indiana, Virginia, and N. Carolina

[Fluffdaddy]

25. Exit Polls...........SUCK. REMEMBER 2004

[Time for change]

33. The margins are way too great this time

Nobody could get away with stealing a victory of these proportions.

[cemaphonic]

34. A landslide would be so great after Bush's 2% claim of "mandate"

[RememberWellstone]

35. 2004

We have a lot to overcome, I heard today that this would probably be the case. I don't trust them or the rethugs.

[bleever]

36. Too big to steal!

:woohoo:

Cheers, Tfc! :toast:

[meuniermr]

37. MSNBC just called Alabama and Georgia for McCain

Huge lead for McCain in Georgia :(

[Time for change]

39. Exit polls gave McCain leads in both those states

[Time for change]

40. Landslide

:toast:

[bleever]

44. Not just a landslide;

a landslide following the big gains of 2006, which is something that hasn't happened since the 1930's!

:toast:

[northernlights]

38. exit polls were good until

suddenly they weren't. It couldn't *possibly* have been due to fraud and an outright stolen election. Nope. Suddenly exit polls became worthless.

I suspect they've always been more or less accurate. And that they should be used as a tipoff to where to send the lawyers.

[Time for change]

43. These lead are too big. If Obama loses this all hell will break loose.

[loudsue]

41. They're saying Virginia is too close to call.

And they're trying to send it into McCain's column. They're also saying NC may go for McCain even though Hagan beat out Dole.

:cry:

If they fuck with this election, there's going to be bloodshed in the streets. How can they lie like that? There is NO WAY that many republicans are going to the polls. It's those assholes who are messing with the central tabulators that are doing this.

[Time for change]

51. Virginia called for Obama

[Time for change]

45. Obama wins Ohio -- That's one of the four

And Obama only needed one of those to win.

That's it.

It's over. McCain couldn't possibly win now even with massive exit poll discrepancies in all those other states.

[yardwork]

47. Indiana? I am crying. I am crying I am so happy.

[Kurovski]

50. K&R. (nt)

[Time for change]

52. Conclusion

Just as in 2004, there was a large exit poll discrepancy. This time, national exit polls gave Obama an 8.3% lead, which was very similar to his lead in the pre-election polls. It appears that he will win the popular vote by about 5%. So there is a discrepancy of about 3.3%, which is large but maybe a little less than the 2004 exit poll discrepancy.

The big difference this year was that Obama's lead was so great, that even with a discrepancy of 3.3% he still won big.

We don't yet know the reasons for the exit poll discrepancy, but they will need to be analyzed. We have to know why this is happening.

What states did Obama lose, which he carried in the exit polls? With respect to the ones that I noted in this post, he won at least 3 of the 4, and probably all 4 of them. I don't know which ones he lost for which he won the exit polls, because I didn't follow them all. But the Election Defense Alliance has screen captures for all of them (before they were "adjusted"), so we will be analyzing them before too long. I'm pretty sure that the exit polls gave Missouri to Obama, so that's at least one state exit poll discripancy in the final state results. It may be the only one, I don't know yet. But in this case Obama's overall EC lead was too great for the loss of Missouri (and possibly NC) to make much of a difference.

[Foolacious]

54. Will results differ depending on paper vs. electronic ballots?

That will be an interesting question, won't it?!!

And WHY do the networks feel compelled to adjust the exit polls?? What is the point of that?!

[Time for change]

55. Yes, that will be a very interesting question -- and will be evaluated

With regard to why the networks adjust the exit polls, there are different views on that.

Exit polls give breakdowns on what kinds of people voted for the different candidates. They look at numerous features, such as age, race, gender, income, beliefs about the economy, religion, gun use -- just about everything. But when exit polls differ from the official results, there is a problem. It means that either the exit polls or the official results were wrong. In adjusting the exit polls one makes the assumption that the polls were wrong and the official results were right. If that is in fact the case, then adjusting the polls gives a more accurate picture of reality.

The networks have never been interested in analyzing the polls to assess the possibility of election fraud -- they just assume that there was no fraud. I see it as similar to the fact that the networks never questioned the Bush administration for the Iraq War. They just made the assumption that the motives were pure and the reasoning sound, and it was their job to support the admoinistration -- which they see as representing our country.

In other words, if you're not willing to question certain assumptions or possibilities, then you'll never be able to evaluate those assumptions or possibilities.

[mollymongold]

57. he'll win by 6 or 7.

[Imagevision]

56. FixX - then why did Rove predict a Mccain blowout 5 days before the election