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Whose EV totals at 12:45am ET Wed are correct? Fox (338-155) or CNN and MSNBC

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ProgressiveEconomist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-05-08 12:50 AM
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Whose EV totals at 12:45am ET Wed are correct? Fox (338-155) or CNN and MSNBC
(338-156)?

According to the CNN map, the following states still are out:

AK (03) 40.3 55.7 McCain +15.4 Solid__ Alaska
IN (11) 45.8 47.5 McCain +01.7 Toss_Up Indiana
MO (11) 47.8 48.2 McCain +00.4 Toss_Up Missouri

MT (03) 44.8 46.8 McCain +02.0 Toss_Up Montana
NC (15) 48.9 46.3 Obama_ +02.6 Toss_Up NorthCarolina

(Statistics from http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain ; EVs double-checked at http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G08 ).

These EVs total 43. I know the total is 538. Thus the network with a total of 538 - 43 = 495 EVs must be correct.

Thus NONE of the three networks is correct. Where did I go wrong?

The answer, apparently, is that electoral maps tonight don't treat Nebraska accurately.

The CNN state detail page at http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/state/#NE says that Nebraska, the only remaining non-winner-take-all state, has 5 electoral votes, McCain will take 4 of them, and Obama will take 0. But the map colors Nebraska red just as if it already had allocated 5 EVs to McCain.

Thus the CNN total of 494 is one short due to the 17 percent of Nebraska precincts still outstanding. Apparently, CNN and MSNBC are correct.
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