Obama will end up with (ballpark) about 4 million more votes than Bush in '04

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

Obama will end up with (ballpark) sround 4 million more votes than Bush in '04

McCain will end up with around 1 million more votes than Kerry in '04

Turnout was around 127 million for the two candidates without third parties, versus 121 million for Kerry + Bush.

popular vote will end up around 52-53% Obama to 47-46% McCain

(Just back of the envelope extrapolating from CNN's national numbers at 91% precincts in)

[rufus dog]

1. Does that seem right to you?

Nothing to back it up, but it seems light to me.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

2. The super-duper size turnout didn't show up (Though still 6 million above '04)

Strong turnout, but not epic. AA and youth % up but nothing really big.

Obama won this on the votes of old white men, keeping the losing margin in that group just a little slimmer than usual.

[grantcart]

3. while it says 90% of precincts reporting that doesn't mean 90% of the

vote in - does it?

Could it meant that 60-70% of the vote in?

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

4. It could be more, certainly

All precincts are not created equal but I added a million to be on the safe side.

If California counts absentees last and they're counted as one precinct, or has unusually large precincts compared with all the other states... I don't know. :shrug:

What was turnout expected to be? A 6 million increase over 2004 seems like a lot. That was a pretty high turnout election.