Merkley will take OR

[lebkuchen]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25380319

Begich will get AK, Franken will get MN, and Chambliss will be forced into a revote.


Dems will have 59 for sure, and possibly 60.

My prediction, based on the district maps of votes yet to be counted.

[lessthanjake]

1. How can you predict Alaska that way?

What do you know that I dont?

[lebkuchen]

7. by precinct votes yet to be counted

which I'd thought I'd seen here, but it's not available. I'll try to find it elsewhere. The city centers with the universities have, in large part, to be counted, and they'll be blue.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25361590

[lessthanjake]

14. I really hope youre right

I think its looking good for Franken and Merkley, so if Begich pulls this out, I will have correctly predicted every senate race! Furthermore, It looks like Georgia could go to a runoff. If that happens, I think we get 60. That would be absurdly crazy

[lebkuchen]

38. CNN has Begich behind 3,500 votes w/ 96% of precincts reporting

Interesting that I can't find the precinct map....why isn't there one of Alaska anywhere? If the 4% of precincts not counted come from Juneau or Anchorage, and they probably do, as I recall seeing somewhere, then Begich should pull it out in the more heavily populated, liberal areas.

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/county/#AKS01map

According to this site for House (1 rep), only 66% of precincts in Alaska have been counted.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25361590

[kath]

2. Except that those numbers include that asshole Lieberman, who is NO Democrat.

[musicblind]

5. While that's not ideal. I'll take what I can get.

For sure.

:)

[lapfog_1]

10. And that's the real problem

60 votes was never a possibility.

Even if all the races go the way the OP wishes...

I suspect Joe is waiting to announce that he is changing his party affiliation to Republican and will announce that some time between tomorrow and inauguration day.

We will still need Olympia or Susan Collins to vote with us to break the filibusters.

Even if LIEberman doesn't officially change, he will still vote for the filibusters anyway... so we might as well kick his ass out. He is simply of no use to us now.

[quakerboy]

3. Oregon I agree.

Multnomah is still mostly out, as is clackamas. I think Merkley may win by as much as 33k, when all is said and done.


Talk to me about Begich/stevens. Thats lookin pretty ugly on every map I see, but I havnt seen any county breakdowns.


I just dont see it with chambliss. at 99% reporting, theres not much to go.

[PretzelWarrior]

6. I think Coleman/Franken goes recount. LOVE IT.

I think Chambliss and company are hiding votes and when the dust settles it becomes a runoff.

I think Stevens holds out for a win, resigns, and then Dems get to beat Alaska and Republicans over the head about all the corruption that has taken place these past few years. That could lead to more gains in 2010.

[musicblind]

8. Chambliss will be a run off because he can't get over 51%

You are right about Stevens though. What map is this guy looking at?

The best I think we can hope for is that Stevens will be forced to resign and MAYBE we can send Obama, and everyone else under the sun to campaign for the dem during AK's new special election.

I can't believe that state would rather vote for a convicted felon than to vote for a democrat.

[PretzelWarrior]

9. Chambliss only needs 50.000001% to get the win from my reading.

not over 51%. correct?

[FVZA_Colonel]

12. 50% + 1, I believe.

However, with the 600,000 it will probably go into runoff.

[lebkuchen]

21. Yeah, that's what it says here:

http://www.redcounty.com/cobb/2008/11/why-a-runoff-election-for-ga-s/


Right now most polls and pundits are saying this race is headed to a runoff to be held in December. Under the Georgia election rules a candidate must win 50% plus one to avoid a runoff.

[PretzelWarrior]

26. I take that to mean any margin over 50% (even by just 1 vote)

will do it for him. So unless there really are irregularities and they still have many "early votes" not tabulated, it looks like the asshole Chambliss may be back.

[lebkuchen]

34. they still don't have all the precincts around the heavily populated areas

completely counted, the blue big city areas. That would be the last great hope.

[musicblind]

13. That's not what I understood them saying on CNN.

That it would have to be 51 to be considered a majority.

[lebkuchen]

15. I saw a county breakdown somewhere....thought it was on MSNBC

I'll have to check my history.

[PretzelWarrior]

4. Merkley gets HUGE assist from the Constitution Party candidate

that guy has 6% of the vote which is assuredly coming from voters that would have gone for Smith.

[democrat2thecore]

11. Are you counting Lieberman?

He probably won't be a Democratic caucus member. Some are expecting him to get the boot - no matter what; others think he will step aside on his own. Do your numbers include Lieberman?

[lebkuchen]

16. He's "independent" so I'm not counting him

I'd just as soon not even look at him.

We have 56 now, plus OR, MN, AK, and hopefully a GA revote.

If Dems could get 60, doesn't that mean the party bosses could tell Liebermann to "stick it, we don't needs ya!" ?

[lessthanjake]

17. That 56 counts Lieberman though

We have no path to 60 without Lieberman.

I dont like him much either, but we do need him, and he will assuredly caucus with us.

[lebkuchen]

19. I hadn't realized that number included independent "dems"

but dyed in the wool blue.

Who else tends to caucus with the dems besides Lieberman?

[democrat2thecore]

20. Bernie Sanders - nt

[lebkuchen]

23. right, and he's independent like Lieberman, isn't he?

yet he isn't included in that 56 total?

[lessthanjake]

24. He is included

unfortunately

[democrat2thecore]

29. unfortunately? I LOVE Bernie! -nt

[lessthanjake]

35. haha I love him too. I said unfortunately cause if we had 56 WITHOUT him, it would be better

Just to clarify haha

[democrat2thecore]

36. That's what happens in the middle of the night. I gotcha now! :) -nt

[democrat2thecore]

27. Yes! He is. -nt

[lessthanjake]

22. Bernie Sanders

Hes an independent from Vermont, but calls himself a "socialist." Basically, theres no way he wont caucus with us. Hes only independent cause hes farther left than the democratic party

[lebkuchen]

25. So, dems could still tell Lieberman to F off then

if they could manage to get the 4 remaining states.

[lessthanjake]

30. Nooo because Sanders in included in that 56 too

We cant tell Lieberman to go to hell. Its okay though, cause as lame as he is, he really does vote with us on most stuff.

[lebkuchen]

32. can we insist that he wear a George Clooney mask when he votes with us?

at least?

[democrat2thecore]

37. Now, THAT'S funny! -nt

[democrat2thecore]

31. He's always caucused with the Democrats - even when he was in the House -nt

[democrat2thecore]

18. Don't know

It's a question being batted around. The fact is, Lieberman, as much as I despise the man, votes with us on economic issues, organized labor - almost all domestic issues. It's a tough call.

[lebkuchen]

28. at the least I'd like to see Chambliss sweat

like the pig he is in a revote.

He's gotta be sweating right now! :)

[democrat2thecore]

33. 'Ya gotta love it - nt