Is Anybody Waiting For The New Rasmussen And Kos/Research 2000 Poll?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Actually, they both did a nice job...

[Awsi Dooger]

1. I got the popular vote margin right but somehow lost two bets

I'm semi-stunned Obama could win Indiana while winning nationally by only 5 points, or somewhere in that range. I'll have to make plenty of adjustments. Actually, Obama was a unique candidate so I knew the partisan index wouldn't be as reliable this year. I feel fortunate I came out ahead, thanks to the screwballs who pushed McCain to the favorite in September.

Yeah, I wonder what Gallup and Zogby and others will say, the polls that tried to pretend Obama would win by double digits?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. I Was Thinking Of You Last Night

What state did you get wrong beside NC?


It does seem a meta analysis of the polls was more or less right but some prominent pollsters ended up on the high side...

[Awsi Dooger]

3. Indiana and North Carolina

Both razor tight "losses." It was weird because Obama was obviously going to win big without those states, but for wagering purposes I had to root for McCain. No way I would have rooted that way if 270 were at stake. All my wins were easy, Obama nationally, McCain to win West Virginia, and McCain to win Georgia. Actually, I guess there are outstanding early ballots in Georgia so I'm not certain I won that one.

Betting elections is weird. No matter how many states/races you pick right, only certain ones fall within value range for betting purposes. I don't regret anything. Indiana and North Carolina plummeted to 50/50 range and betting a Republican to win those states at even money is a bargain. Tonight they tilted narrowly the other way.

I might have won the 16-man election pool. Looks very close between myself and two other guys. I think I'm likely to be second but it won't be decided until all the results and final national margin are in. :)

Luckily most of them are right wingers and they insisted on picking McCain to win big states like Florida and Ohio. That took care of almost half the field.