Battlegrounds in 2012

[progressive_realist]

Yes, it is a little early to start predicting the situation four years from now, but Obama's victory has shifted the field in some important ways:

1) Despite McCain making it the linchpin of his strategy, Obama won Pennsylvania by 11 points. That's going to make it tough for Repubs to keep considering PA a toss-up state. Sooner or later, the GOP will have to start looking elsewhere for electoral votes.

2) There aren't a whole lot of other places for them to look. Obama won New Hampshire by 11 points, Nevada by 12, and New Mexico by a whopping 15 points. These join PA as "purple" states that are looking awfully blue.

3) Obama's weakest margins of victory among the Bush/Kerry states are Minnesota(+10) and Iowa(+9). Counting only these states, the ones mentioned above, and the even safer blue states gives Obama a base of 269 electoral votes for 2012. So the GOP has no choice but to target IA and MN if they want to be even theoretically competitive.

4) Obviously, Ohio, Florida, Colorado, and Missouri are going to continue to be battlegrounds.

5) The southern Atlantic seaboard states of Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, and South Carolina are all likely to be up for grabs in 2012. Obama didn't make much of a play for South Carolina this time, but he only lost by 9 points, so it seems worth a shot next time around.

6) Formerly rock-solid Indiana is now a battleground state. This is probably the biggest upset Obama managed to pull off. Indiana was most definitely not considered a swing state before this election.

7) Despite McCain being from Arizona and little attention being paid to the state by the Obama campaign, the Repubs only won by 9 points. It will definitely be in play next time.

8) They are only worth 3 electoral votes each, but Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota all appear to be potential battlegrounds for 2012. Montana has gone Dem before, but the Dakotas were formerly core Republican states. Psychologically, it would be satisfying to pull them into the Dem camp.

9) Appalachia will be interesting to watch over the next few years. Some of these states (Arkansas and West Virginia especially) have been Democratic-leaning until recently, but the whole region seems to be drifting rightward. This isn't something exclusive to Obama (Gore lost his home state of Tennessee in 2000), but I suspect the election of Obama may unfortunately accelerate the trend.

10) Could there be others? Alaska was trending for Obama before Palin was picked for the GOP ticket. Will they come around in 2012? What about Texas? Demographically, it keeps moving leftward, so it is only a matter of time before it becomes a battleground state. Will 2012 be the magic year?