So what's the scoop on Indiana, Missouri, & North Carolina?

[Abacus]

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/president/

I see fivethirtyeight.com has called Indiana for Obama, but I can't find anything for the others.

I was projecting a 370 Obama win, but it looks like it may be 364. My missed calls are shaping up to be Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, and Indiana -- the former three I had for Obama and the latter one for McCain.

[camera obscura]

1. MSNBC had Indiana blue, North Carolina too close to call

I think MO was red but not sure

[Abacus]

4. Thanks! /nt

[ananda]

2. Montana and ND went red for McCain.

NC and IN went blue for Obama.

I'm not sure about Missouri.

[ananda]

3. Montana and ND went red for McCain.

NC and IN went blue for Obama.

I'm not sure about Missouri.

[HeeBGBz]

5. Missouri - half red half blue, but the state went to McCain

John McCain, Sarah Palin REP 1,442,613 49.4%
Barack Obama, Joe Biden DEM 1,436,745 49.2%

By slightly less than 6000 votes.

[Indiana_Dem]

6. Indiana went BLUE! Here's the last count I found:

1,352,356 Obama
1,329,370 McCain

22,986 difference

I helped deliver 6,995 votes from Cass County even though we were too red to win it. There was a man with a gun at one of polls and holding anti-Obama signs. He was asked to leave and he did. There was some major voter intimidation yesterday morning. Huge signs up on the side of the highway calling Obama a baby killer and pusher of abortions. I cried almost the rest of the day and wasn't much good to the campaign much of yesterday. However, I worked going door-to-door since April every Wed & Sat. I am happy to have helped get the votes I did!

I've still been crying off and on out of joy and relief.

[arewenotdemo]

11. A job well done, Indiana_Dem! Just amazing.

:party:

[progressive_realist]

7. Razor-thin margins.

McCain won Missouri by 5,853 votes. Obama won North Carolina by 12,160 votes. Obama won Indiana by 23,560 votes, although MSNBC is still showing only 99% of precincts.

If any of these states were the margin of victory in the electoral college, I'm sure we would be treated to the grand theatrics of recounts and legal challenges. But Obama wins without any of the three, so I'm guessing these results will stand.

It's a shame about Missouri; a lot of people put a lot of hard work into it, only to lose by the narrowest of margins. I guess it really is the swingiest of swing states.

[JaneQPublic]

10. So much for MO's rep as a president picker. (nt)

[ErinBerin84]

8. I'm reallllly hoping NC is blue.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1108/What_is_happening_in_NC.html

What is happening in N.C.?

It's the provisionals:

The official outcome in North Carolina will depend on the counting of provisional ballots, cast by voters whose eligibility to vote must be confirmed. That's a process that could take several days. It wasn't immediately known how many provisional ballots are outstanding.

With 100 percent of the nearly 3,000 precincts reporting, Obama led McCain by about 12,000 votes out of more than 4.2 million counted in unofficial results. Libertarian Bob Barr had less than 1 percent.

[Ozma]

9. Most of the provisional ballots will go to Obama... because

Most of them are probably young or black, and were off the rolls for stupid reasons.

[tledford]

15. Obama by 12,160 to be exact. eom

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

12. Good, bad, and good, respectively.

Or so it seems.

[Abacus]

13. Well, I couldn't resist anymore; I sent a post-mortem to my republican dad

Here's what I sent him yesterday:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7721209&mesg_id=7750036

I'm projecting an Obama victory of 370 to 168 electoral votes and 53.4% of popular votes, third party votes excluded. State results are based on the six most recent polls for each state, adjusted for national movement (which is in turn based on a two-day rolling average of national poll results), and with undecideds alloted by the voting direction of leaners and independents within that state, third party votes also excluded.

Obama could lose every state within 9.6 points and still win the election; in other words, a McCain victory depends on a lot of pollsters being dramatically wrong. To get a sense of how this election will go, I will be watching New Hampshire, which should indicate whether Obama is likely to underperform his polls. I will be watching Indiana, where McCain leads by 0.22%; losing Indiana will likely spell doom for McCain. I will also watch Pennsylvania to compare with polling results, which at one time showed that McCain's targeted campaigning had narrowed Obama's 12 point lead in the state to an 8 point lead, but has since mostly recovered.

McCain's most likely path to victory requires his current states, plus Missouri, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, and either Montana or North Dakota. If he picks up Pennsylvania, he can afford to lose any one of the previous states except Florida

He is usually prompt in responding to me, so I assume he was either curled up in the fetal position or thought I was full of shit. So here's what I sent today:

I think the electoral vote is shaping up to be 364 - 174. Assuming North Carolina & Missouri are eventually awarded according to the current estimates, I will have been wrong on four states for a total of 6 electoral votes. I think it's worth noting that the four calls I appear to have missed: Indiana for McCain, and Montana, North Dakota, & Missouri for Obama, are all adjacent and within 3/4 of a point from the center.

The current popular vote, Obama 62,992,553 & McCain 55,796,823 gives Obama 53.03% of the total, compared to my projected 53.4%.

[SidDithers]

14. I had 364-174...

but was way off on the time it was called. It may end up 365-173, 'cause Obama might pick up one EV from Nebraska.

Sid

[Abacus]

16. Nice call!

I'm in NE; I sure hope he does but I'm not getting my hopes up. It would be our first split ever -- in a campaign of firsts, this would be the icing on the cake.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

17. I know Clare McCaskill is devastated by MO.

:( :( :(

[Blackhatjack]

18. Here are your latest numbers from the NC Bd of Elections .... LINK

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7789402

[Abacus]

19. Thanks, any idea how absentees have been going generally?

[codjh9]

20. Apparently we've won IN & NC and only lost MO by 6,000 votes.