Obama ***OVER-PERFORMED**** in every key Battleground State!

[aaaaaa5a]

Obama OVER-PERFORMED in every key battle-ground state based on the "RealClearPolitics" poll average for each key contest.



In several states he outpaced the polling average by wide margin and he won Indiana and potentially North Carolina despite trailing in the states polling averages. THe Bradley effect is dead!





Pennsylvania
Final Results -- -- -- 54.6 44.3 Obama +10.3.........I thought this state was tightening? What happened to "McCain's" internal polls!
RCP Average 10/27 - 11/03 -- -- 51.0 43.7 Obama +7.3



Florida
Final Results -- -- -- 50.9 48.4 Obama +2.5........ Remember when Jewish voters wouldn't vote for Obama!
RCP Average 10/27 - 11/03 -- -- 49.0 47.2 Obama +1.8





Nevada
Final Results -- -- -- 55.1 42.7 Obama +12.4
RCP Average 10/25 - 11/03 -- -- 50.3 43.8 Obama +6.5





Indiana
Final Results -- -- -- 49.0 49.9 +Obama +0.9............................ RCP average had the wrong winner! It's the OBAMA EFFECT!
RCP Average 10/26 - 11/03 -- -- 47.8 46.4 McCain +1.4





Missouri
Final Results...................49.4 49.2 McCain +0.2...................... Even here "technically" he over-performed!
RCP Average 10/28 - 11/03 -- -- 48.5 47.8 McCain +0.7




Ohio
Final Results........................ 51.2 47.1 Obama +4.1
RCP Average 10/27 - 11/03 -- -- 48.8 46.3 Obama +2.5




New Mexico
Final Results -- -- -- 56.8 41.9 Obama +14.9.................. The "Obama effect" in the polls strikes again!
RCP Average 09/29 - 10/31 -- -- 50.3 43.0 Obama +7.3




Virginia
Final Results -- -- -- 51.8 47.3 Obama +4.5........................... After a shaky start, Virginia came in above the number too!
RCP Average 10/29 - 11/03 -- -- 50.2 45.8 Obama +4.4




Colorado
Final Results...................53.4 46.8 Obama +6.8
RCP Average 10/27 - 11/02 -- -- 50.8 45.3 Obama +5.5




North Carolina
Final Results..........................................................Still pending however Obama currently leads.
RCP Average 10/28 - 11/03 -- -- 48.4 48.0 McCain +0.4




A special thank you to everyone out there who took the time to knock on doors, make phone calls and work the polls. Your effort makes a difference. And these numbers prove it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[NightWatcher]

1. told ya so. and yall were worried

[Thrill]

2. There was never a Bradley effect

[aaaaaa5a]

3. Your right... but there is an Obama effect! LOL nt

[YOY]

9. Damn straight.

Screw the rovian bastards who pretended of its impending doom.

[HughMoran]

4. Now do the same, but throw out Mason-Dixon & Rasmussen

;)

Their tilt was evident in the Battleground states. Obama performed as expected using unbiased pollsters - which is fine with me!

[aaaaaa5a]

5. That's why the only number I look at is the Realclearpolitics average.

By averaging all the polls you limit the effect of outliers and get a more accurate results. And just like in the primaries, despite people who knock polls, the Realclearpolitics average was generally a good predictor of race outcomes.

[HughMoran]

7. Yes it was

I was impressed how well they predicted the results. Also though, if you notice a pollster that is consistently below the average like Mason-Dixon (and to a lesser extent, Rasmussen), you can predict where the averages will be "off" the final numbers.

[aaaaaa5a]

8. The interesting thing about Mason Dixon

is that when their last round of polls came out showing a smaller Obama lead than many other pollsters, Obama was actually moving up in their polls from when they used the same methods a few weeks earlier.


Mason Dixon had Obama IMPROVING HIS lead according to their numbers in the battleground states.



This is why you have to be careful when looking at a poll and drawing defined conclusions like they do on "Oh... I don't know..... maybe MSNBC!"

[treestar]

6. Yeah!

No more worrying about the Bradley effect.

[ecstatic]

10. Wow! So the MO win is final? nt

[aaaaaa5a]

11. Yes...

also on dkos they are saying that Obama won North Carolina!

[AtomicKitten]

12. Obama delivered a decisive win.

:patriot:
:party:

[populistdriven]

13. G R O U N D G A M E

was awesome!

[aaaaaa5a]

14. Obama's ground game

was the best in modern political history!

[populistdriven]

15. pic