Oregon: Merkly (D) projected winner in US Senate race

[ericgtr]

This has been a very close race so far between Smith (R) and Merkley (D), this is the first projection I have seen for Merkly.

http://www.kptv.com/politics/17895480/detail.html

With 75 percent precincts reporting, Smith held the lead Wednesday morning by about 15,000 votes. But Hibbitts said Multnomah County still has 200,000 ballots that still need to be counted.

"You have to look at where the votes are out," Hibbitts said. "The vast majority of the votes that are yet to be counted are from counties that Jeff Merkley is carrying by a very large margin."

He also said the list of uncounted votes didn't favor Smith.

[sandnsea]

1. We're hoping

It's ridiculous it's this close.

[ericgtr]

4. Smith is a staple here though

Taking him out is not an easy task I am sure.

[ananda]

2. Yay!

What a relief! That's 57 now.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

3. I'm reminded of when Slade Gorton was ran out of town.

I'm happy to have cast my vote in this close race.

[golddigger]

5. I was proud to cast my vote for Merkley. I hope he does take out that POS Smith.

[ericgtr]

8. It was funny that Smith was running his ads saying he "sided with Obama"

and I think that worked for him to an extent but Merkley fired back which I was glad to see.

[Reader Rabbit]

6. No other local stations or papers are projecting yet.

I want to believe, but I also don't want to jinx it.

[Hope And Change]

7. K & R!

[MattP]

9. Looks like we lost it, it's to bad but it is still a great night for us

http://egov.sos.state.or.us/division/elections/results/2008G/goToViewENResults1372259056.html

[ericgtr]

13. That is unofficial do we have anything official yet? n/t

[mollymongold]

10. THANK GOD

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

11. Where does that put us?

[Arugula Latte]

12. on edit: Oh Shit. I can't believe it. I think Merkley lost.

God DAMN I'm disappointed in this state. :banghead:

[MattP]

14. I know it sucks but

Gordon H Smith (Republican) 655,944 47.47%
Jeff Merkley (Democrat) 647,190 46.83%
Dave Brownlow (Constitution) 74,899 5.42%
Write-in Votes 3,891 0.28%
_________________ _________________
Totals: 1,381,924 100%


http://egov.sos.state.or.us/division/elections/results/2008G/goToViewENResults1372259056.html

[GoesTo11]

19. Don't think that's final

This is only a few thousand votes more than CNN lists with 74% reporting. On INTRADE, still trading through today, Smith (R) is at 3 and Merkley (D) is at 86.5. So what we see at that site isn't a final count.

[ericgtr]

20. I've been trying to say the same thing

I don't know why he posted that like it's final when it clearly isn't.

[ProgressiveEconomist]

21. Where on that unofficial results site does it say "100% precincts"? Click on the "county"

results and compare Multnomah to the CNN Multnomah page at

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/county/#val=ORS01p3

"Multnomah 5:49 p.m. EST, Nov 5 '08
Merkley 137,248 67%
Smith (Incumbent) 60,114 29%
49% of precincts reporting"

The total is 197,000 with 49 % of precints reporting.

The sos website had a total of 205,000 when I looked. IMO it's highly unlikely the totals you posted are 100 percent of precincts.

If Multnomah trends continue, the 77,000 margin for Merkley (above) should double in that one county alone.

Also take a look at Lane. In that county alone, if trends continue, there are enough votes to counter the possibly 20,000 votes Smith may reap from uncounted votes in pro-Smith counties on the CNN site.

[GrizzlyMan]

15. Yeah, but you still have Matt and Amy Roloff

That should count for something.

[ericgtr]

16. Yes we do and funny you should post this, I run Matt's website

I just upgraded that puppy to dual servers so it's nice and snappy now too. :)

[GrizzlyMan]

17. I love the show, but fear they are Republicans

Nothing to base that on, other than they send their kids to a private christian school.

[Hawkeye-X]

35. I do enjoy the Roloffs!

As a disabled person myself, I can see how they have come through!

Thanks for running their website!

:hi:

Hawkeye-X

[ericgtr]

38. If you are a fan feel free to join up on our board

Lots of fans there that post :) http://www.mattroloff.com/talk

[Arugula Latte]

18. My son had a baseball game out in the boonies recently and I saw a sign for their pumpkin farm.

We didn't have time to stop by, though.

[LynneSin]

22. Multnomah county - isn't that Portland? We got this in the bag

the cities across the country have all overwhelmingly gone blue.

Run your mouse across Mutlnomah County - Barack is winning that by 75%.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

23. Multnomah and Lane are still being counted.

Two blue islands in a sea of purple.

[ericgtr]

26. Yep and Lane county is very blue anyone who has ever lived there knows that

I think Merkley will pull it out.

[ellie]

24. I thought

that the race was called for Smith?

[leeno]

25. Merkley is up over 1000 votes now

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/individual/#mapSOR

[FLAprogressive]

27. Unfortunately CNN seems to be lagging:

http://egov.sos.state.or.us/division/elections/results/2008G/goToViewENResults1372259056.html

[Overseas]

28. Hope So !! /nt

[codjh9]

29. I sure hope so! I love Oregon!

[Arugula Latte]

30. Oh, Yay! Keep hope alive!

Come on, Merkley! Come on, Oregon! We can't let the rest of the country down! :bounce:

[AllyCat]

31. Keeping my fingers crossed. Come on OR!!!

[central scrutinizer]

32. lead is down to about 3500 (3:30 PST)

http://www.oregonlive.com/special/index.ssf/2008/11/senate.html

http://egov.sos.state.or.us/division/elections/results/2008G/electionResultsView-258602371.html

[HughMoran]

33. Merkley up 1200 votes now!!!

:woohoo:

[FLAprogressive]

34. Hate to burst your bubble but I think CNN is lagging

http://egov.sos.state.or.us/division/elections/results/2008G/goToViewENResults1372259056.html

Gordon Smith 660,264
Jeff Merkley 655,312

100% reporting

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/individual/#mapSOR

Merkley 645,711
Smith 644,554

75% reporting

notice the difference? Can someone talk me down / explain why there's a difference?

[Bonn1997]

36. Which one is right? Have 100% reported and Merkley lost?

I don't get it

[FLAprogressive]

37. I don't either which is why I'm confused. n/t

[HughMoran]

43. Up 10,000 votes with 79% reporting

Jeff Merkley Dem. 679,639 47.6%
Gordon H. Smith Rep. 669,965 46.9 Incumbent
Dave Brownlow CST 77,375 5.4

Notice how these numbers are bigger than the 100% numbers you posted?

Oh, and I'm getting them from the NYT page, not CNN.

[unblock]

39. now smith has a lead of just 1,273 votes

Gordon H Smith (Republican) 686,681 47.21%
Jeff Merkley (Democrat) 685,408 47.12%

100% of precincts reporting, but there might be rounding involved (maybe it's only 99.6%?) and perhaps there are other votes still to be counted (absentee?)

http://egov.sos.state.or.us/division/elections/results/2008G/goToViewENResults1372259056.html

is there a mandatory recount in oregon?

[FLAprogressive]

40. The "100%" figure is an adding up of all the percentage totals...NOT precincts as previously thought

[Spike89]

41. According to the Oregonian Newspaper

Lane County (Eugene--mostly very blue) has had a series of computer problems and are behind in reporting. Multnomah (Portland and again, very blue) county had flooding in their counting offices and are very far behind. According to the newspaper, and even a Smith campaign source, Merkley is almost a shoo-in.

[ericgtr]

42. They are now all saying that Merkley has won

Very close race but Smith just didn't quite get there.

[ibegurpard]

44. The Portland paper (Oregonian) has called it for Merkley

Ahead over 10,000 votes now with still more counting to do in mostly Multnomah County (Portland).