How Likely Is a Recount to Favor Al Franken?

[Bonn1997]

Now, I know 450 to 500 votes doesn't sound like a lot, but out of 3 million that basically means that we need a NET GAIN of one vote per 6000. That's not the same as saying there has to be *one error* per 6000 recorded votes but rather a *net gain* of one error favoring Franken for every 6000 votes. To me, that doesn't sound likely. I think there'd have to have been some kind of systematic (not random) error in the vote counting that had favored Coleman and would be reversed in the recount.

[grantcart]

1. the main issue will be the provisional ballots that will almost certainly favor Franken

[Bonn1997]

4. Hmmm. I didn't realize that. This could get really complicated!

[scarletwoman]

5. There are no provisional ballots in MN. We have same day registration.

I worked as an election judge in several elections in Minnesota, I don't recall the issue of provisional ballots ever coming up in the training.

sw

[grantcart]

6. interesting it appears that MN election judges are empowered to settle the issue at the poll

http://www.sos.state.mn.us/docs/challenger_faq_2008.pdf


while you were an election judge did you ever have to rule on residency claims by a voter? What were the challengers like?

[scarletwoman]

10. No, never had to deal with anything like that. But I live in the boonies, my precinct has only 170

registered voters. I registered a few new voters, mostly 18 year olds who came in with their already registered parents -- whom I generally knew.

When I first moved here, I registered by bringing in my electric bill, because I hadn't changed the address on my drivers license yet.

I didn't read your link, because trying to open PDF files tends to freeze up my antique computer, so I don't know how much information it contains. What I do know is that only a registered Minnesota voter can challenge another voter, and it must be based on personal knowledge.

The challenge has to be made in writing to the election judge, not to the voter being challenged, and the challenger has to formally swear that the information they are presenting is true.

This is a law that was passed after the 2004 election, when the GOP contracted professional challengers who came up here from Texas and really pissed people off. That was all in the Cities, of course, no one is going to bother trying to disrupt the vote in my tiny township.

Anyway, we have a strictly paper ballot system here, and it's been years since any recount has made much of a difference in the final total. I honestly don't think there's much of a chance for Franken to pull out a squeaker win.

In my own precinct, there were 107 votes for Obama, but only 85 for Franken -- Minnesota is the land of the split ticket. I think Franken probably came up short fair and square.

sw

[scarletwoman]

2. Highly unlikely. Maybe they'd find a dozen or so extra votes, but that's about it. (nt)

[EconomicLiberal]

3. Recounts definitely favor us.

Remember the FL recount? When the race was called in the early morning in Florida, Gore was down around 5,000 votes. He lost by only 537 votes. We gained around 4,500 votes through the recount.

There is a bigger potential for voter tabulation error in highly populated areas... i.e. areas that favor Franken.

[grantcart]

7. Yes but that was Florida and I suspect that MN is much better orgainized

[grantcart]

8. now that the issue of provisional ballots has been eliminated (see upstream)

I would say that you are likely to be right. The recount in WA state in a much closer election was changed because they found legal ballots that had not been counted at all.

[personanongrata]

9. possible

The ballots are fill in the circle, scantron-style. There are many possibilities for error: false blanks, people who filled in two but crossed out one, people who circled the name, people who put a check-mark in the circle, etc. Not saying who would end up on top, but I imagine there are well over 500 mistakes out of 3 million ballots. And now they will have to be counted by hand, any disputes will have to be agreed upon by a representative of Coleman and Franken, and possibly Barkley. If they can't agree, a judge rules on each disputed ballot.

[scarletwoman]

11. The thing is, all ballots are scanned -- they'd already know if there was a big stack of improperly

marked ballots that needed to be examined. All ballots are counted at the precinct, put in sealed envelopes, and then delivered to the Secretary of State for certification. Spoiled/questionable ballots are put in a separate sealed envelope -- marked as "questionable" and delivered to the S.o.S. at the same time.

No one on the local news here is saying that there's a bunch of bad ballots that need to be examined for voter intent. The recount is going involve manually reading all 3+ million ballots that were cast and already recorded.

Frankly, I think it's unrealistic to hope that the outcome is going to change. Maybe a few dozen extra votes for Franken might show up, but just as many could show up for Coleman, too.

sw