Republican Class III Senators - Up for election in 2011 -

[grantcart]

The issue of a 60 seat filibuster proof caucus has become a fixation with the media but the reality is that on any issue there maybe a few Democratic Senators that may not vote with the caucus and there are Republican Senators that will join.

A fertile ground to look for Republican defections are those Republican Senators that are facing re-eleciton.


Here are the Republican Senators of class III who will be facing the voters in 24 months;

Utah--- Bennett
Missouri-- Bond
Kansas--- Brownback
Kentucky--- Bunning
North Carolina-- Burr
Oklahoma--- Coburn
Idaho--- Crapo
South Carolina-- Demint
Iowa -- Grassley
New Hampshire-- Gregg
Georgia --- Isakson
Florida ---- Martinez
Arizona --- McCain
Arkansas-- Murkowski
Alabama ---- Shelby
Pennsylvania-- Spector
South Dakota --- Thune
Louisiana -- Vitter
Ohio --- Voinovich


Democrats have 15 seats all in safe seats.

http://www.senate.gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm.cfm?Class=3

[dbackjon]

1. The Targets

Missouri-- Bond
Kentucky--- Bunning
North Carolina-- Burr
Oklahoma--- Coburn
Iowa -- Grassley
New Hampshire-- Gregg
Georgia --- Isakson
Florida ---- Martinez
Arizona --- McCain
Arkansas-- Murkowski
Pennsylvania-- Spector
South Dakota --- Thune
Louisiana -- Vitter
Ohio --- Voinovich

[Seen the light]

2. Burr's done for

I hope Grier Martin runs this time and is the one to take Burr out.

[Blackhatjack]

6. I'll second that motion! Burr has got to go! n/t

[asksam]

19. Yeah. Ever since he shot Alexander Hamilton...

... I could never trust the guy! :)

[grantcart]

3. I agree and a strong candidate in AZ may encourage McCain to resign

I can't see him hanging around in a minority caucus with no leadership positions.

[blondeatlast]

7. Gov. Napolitano is being groomed for it and I think she wants it badly.

We wlso have former Phoenix mayor and current AG Terry Goddard, both of whom have the chops and the campaign savvy.

AZ can't lose with these two but the primary will be a killer!

[dbackjon]

24. My hope is that Napolitano runs for Senate, Goddard for Govenor

[RollWithIt]

5. I don't thin Voinovich is a viable target....

Even with Ohio swinging over to the left, Voinovich is from Cleveland and he carries far too much of the Democratic vote up there to really be challenged. Two terms as mayor and two terms as Governor of Ohio doesn't hurt him either. He's most definitely the highest respected Republican in the state.

[Doremus]

8. Mr. Gang of 14 (or whatever number it was) is vulnerable.

And even if he isn't by then, we need to fight like hell to get him out.

The Voinovich reign needs to end NOW.

[Pab Sungenis]

9. Looking at the targets

Missouri-- Bond
North Carolina-- Burr
Oklahoma--- Coburn
Iowa -- Grassley
Florida ---- Martinez
Georgia --- Isakson
Pennsylvania-- Specter

Ohio --- Voinovich

Not going to happen.

Arkansas-- Murkowski

Alaska. Doubtful.

Kentucky--- Bunning
New Hampshire-- Gregg
Arizona --- McCain
South Dakota --- Thune

Possible.

Louisiana -- Vitter

All but assured, unless he doesn't run for re-election. Then we never win that seat.

Maybe 3-4 pickups possible, but unlikely. I think the 2011 Senate will be basically the same as the 2009.

[grantcart]

11. In any case getting them out is not the immediate benefit -- all of them

have to think about an election is very close and I don't think any of them will want to be tagged with the claim that they were the one that stopped a popular piece of legislation.

[FLAprogressive]

20. Oklahoma -- really?

The only person we could probably get to win is DINO Dan .

A more realistic list:

Missouri-- Bond
North Carolina-- Burr
Iowa -- Grassley
New Hampshire-- Gregg
Florida ---- Martinez
Arizona --- McCain
Pennsylvania-- Specter
South Dakota --- Thune
Louisiana -- Vitter

[PresidentObama]

4. How are Bond's approval ratings? His potential rival, Robin Carnahan, is quite popular.

I think I saw in a head to head match up, Robin is two points behind--well within the margin of error.

[RayOfHope]

17. Bond sucks. His liver will give out before then, he is a notorious drunk. Also

He's about 5ft7 and has a big ole gut. Not a healthy man.

RObin would kick his ass, literally and figuratively.

[SuperTrouper]

10. Perhaps we can pick up 9 seats

Utah--- Bennett...Probably safe
Missouri-- Bond...May be vulnerable
Kansas--- Brownback....Safe
Kentucky--- Bunning... May be vulnerable
North Carolina-- Burr...May be vulnerable
Oklahoma--- Coburn...Safe
Idaho--- Crapo....Safe
South Carolina-- Demint...Safe
Iowa -- Grassley...Safe
New Hampshire-- Gregg...Vulnerable
Georgia --- Isakson...Safe
Florida ---- Martinez...Vulnerable, how about Roberto Wexler or Debbi-Wasserman Schultz?
Arizona --- McCain...Vulnerable...Napolitano should challenge him
Arkansas-- Murkowski...Perhaps vulnerable. Can General Wesley Clark challenge him?
Alabama ---- Shelby...Safe
Pennsylvania-- Spector...May be open seat. Hmm This may be Tweety's chance!!!
South Dakota --- Thune...Safe
Louisiana -- Vitter...Vulnerable.
Ohio --- Voinovich...Vulnerable

Perhaps 9 Senators

[Blue Belle]

15. Tweety could be encourage if Franken wins Minesota...

I think he even said something about it Tuesday night (although it could have been someone else). But I don't think Tweety will give up his day job. I think we could have some wiggle room in Utah if Rocky Anderson runs. Kentucky was a nail biter this year and Bunning is getting more senile by the day. Louisiana is possible if they run a strong Democrat (Mitch Landrieu Perhaps?). If Paul Hackett runs he may be able to beat Voinovich. I'm sure the DSCC is looking hard at putting up strong candidates in all of the Republican races. They are also Looking at defending vulnerable Democrats and Democratic seats where the incumbent could be resigning (possibly Senator Byrd).

[THUNDER HANDS]

12. seems like 7 possible targets

in North Carolina, South Carolina, Iowa, New Hampshire, Georgia, FLorida and Pennsylvania.

[ddeclue]

13. NONE of these are likely "defectors" and will have to be removed by beating them. n/t

The only possible defectors are the New England variety of Republican. Mel Martinez USED to be a Dem long ago but he's so painted himself into a corner on that that he could never go back.

[grantcart]

14. In normal circumstances I would agree

but how many of these would be eager to become under national scruitiny as THE person to stop the public will on popular legislation.

I think most of them will be happy to find face saving measures so that they can get out of the spotlight on any big issue.

[Vinca]

16. NH is turning so blue I think Gregg is a real possibility if we

can find the right person to run against him.

[ipfilter]

18. Coburn --- Oklahoma

Forget it. Oklahoma is a political cesspool. This state needs some help.

[FLAprogressive]

21. Like I said -- the only "Dem" that would have a shot is DINO Dan

Boren.

And do we REALLY need another Ben Nelson?

[Hippo_Tron]

27. Better to have Dan Boren vote with us 50% of the time than Coburn vote with us 0%

Coburn is a national embarrassment.

[SteppingRazor]

22. Murkowski's Alaska, not Arkansas. But, yeah, some pretty good bets.

Bond, Grassley, Gregg, Martinez, McCain, Spector, Vitter and Voinovich should all make pretty handy targets.

Really, though, if the Dems want to knock off Spector early, they should just put him in the Obama cabinet somewhere and have Ed Rendell appoint a new senator.

[grantcart]

25. lol good idea on Spector

[Spike89]

23. We saw it real clearly in Oregon

Gordon Smith always ran as a "moderate" republican, then voted right along party lines for 4 years. The two years running up to reelection would find him voting almost exclusively with the Dems, but mostly on things that wouldn't/couldn't pass. He'd then trumpet how moderate he had been.

[arcos]

26. Murkowski is from Alaska, not Arkansas...

And they're up for reelection 2010. :)