Can we get to 60 seats in 2010?

[ccharles000]

I know in North Carolina Burr would most likely lose to our AG Roy Cooper who is very popular here in NC. Sam Brownback is not going to run again and I think Kathleen Sebelius who is well liked in Kansas has a good shot a winning the seat.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2010#Richard_Burr_of_North_Carolina

Overview of races

Retiring Senators

Sam Brownback (R) of Kansas
Main article: United States Senate election in Kansas, 2010
Elected in 1996 to the Senate seat once held by Bob Dole and a former candidate for his party's presidential nomination in 2008, conservative Republican Sam Brownback has stated he will not run in 2010 because of self-imposed term limits.<1> A 2007 poll reported a 50% approval rating for Brownback.<2>


Possible retiring Senators

Christopher Dodd (D) of Connecticut
Main article: United States Senate election in Connecticut, 2010
First elected in 1980, Christopher Dodd, the longest-serving U.S. Senator in Connecticut history, announced in a letter to the Federal Election Commission on January 17, 2007 that he was no longer a candidate for re-election to the U.S. Senate in 2010. This announcement enabled him to transfer contributions to his presidential campaign, and a Dodd spokesman said, "It's a legality that isn't an indication of future plans."<3>

An October 2008 poll found Dodd had a positive rating of 42% and a negative ratings of 48%.<4>

Outgoing congressman Christopher Shays (R) has said he will no longer seek elective office.<5>


Democratic Incumbent Races

Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas
Main article: United States Senate election in Arkansas, 2010
Incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln was reelected with 56% of the vote in 2004, a year when President George W. Bush carried the state easily and GOP candidates nationwide won in what was termed as a GOP year. Lincoln is popular in Arkansas and is well known. Former Governor Mike Huckabee, who was a 2008 presidential candidate, may run, since he remains a relatively well-liked figure. Regardless of Huckabee's position, Arkansas has elected only one Republican Senator since Reconstruction, who was defeated in a GOP landslide year of 2002.


Barbara Boxer of California
Main article: United States Senate election in California, 2010
The chairwoman of the Environment and Public Works Committee, California Democrat Barbara Boxer announced in February 2007 that she will seek a fourth term in 2010.<6>

Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger may seek the seat, as he would be ineligible to run again in the Gubernatorial race due to term limits.<6>


Ken Salazar of Colorado
Main article: United States Senate election in Colorado, 2010
Ken Salazar has been mentioned as a possible cabinet appointment by Barack Obama, but downplayed such speculation before the 2008 election.<7>


Daniel Inouye of Hawaii
Main article: United States Senate election in Hawaii, 2010
Veteran Democrat Daniel Inouye will complete his eighth term in the Senate in 2010, at age 86. He was reelected in 2004 with 76% of the vote.<8>


Barack Obama of Illinois
Main article: United States Senate election in Illinois, 2010
Governor Rod Blagojevich will appoint a person to replace Obama in the US Senate due to Obama's status as President-elect of the United States.


Evan Bayh of Indiana
Main article: United States Senate election in Indiana, 2010
Evan Bayh, a former two-term Governor of Indiana, is now in his second Senate term. He won reelection with 62% of the vote in 2004.<9>


Barbara Mikulski of Maryland
Main article: United States Senate election in Maryland, 2010
Democrat Barbara Mikulski will be 73 in November 2010. Mikulski has often been elected by large margins.


Harry Reid of Nevada
Main article: United States Senate election in Nevada, 2010
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will seek a fifth term. In 2004, he was reelected with 61% of the vote.<8>


Chuck Schumer of New York
Main article: United States Senate election in New York, 2010
Chuck Schumer, current chairman of the DSCC, defeated Assemblyman Howard Mills, 71-24% in 2004.


Byron Dorgan of North Dakota
Main article: North Dakota United States Senate election, 2010
Three term Senator Byron Dorgan will be 68 years old in 2010.


Ron Wyden of Oregon
Main article: Oregon United States Senate election, 2010
Ron Wyden is expected to win reelection easily in Oregon, a state whose congressional delegation has a 4-1 Democratic majority and its presidential votes almost 50/50 in 2000 and 2004.


Patrick Leahy of Vermont
Main article: Vermont United States Senate election, 2010
Six-term Vermont Senator Patrick Leahy will be 70 in 2010.


Patty Murray of Washington
Main article: Washington United States Senate election, 2010
Patty Murray defeated Rep. George Nethercutt with 55% of the vote in 2004.<8>


Russ Feingold of Wisconsin
Main article: Wisconsin United States Senate election, 2010
In 2004, Russ Feingold won a third term with 55% of the vote, substantially outperforming John Kerry, the Democratic nominee for president in Wisconsin.<9>


Republican Incumbent Races

Richard Shelby of Alabama
Main article: Alabama United States Senate election, 2010
Richard Shelby, a former Democrat who switched parties in 1994 when Republicans took control of both the House and Senate will be 76 in 2010. Shelby's 2010 campaign committee has over 13 million dollars on hand as of September 30, 2008.<10>


Lisa Murkowski of Alaska
Main article: Alaska United States Senate election, 2010
Lisa Murkowski narrowly defeated former Governor Tony Knowles in 2004, with 49% of the vote.<8>


John McCain of Arizona
Main article: Arizona United States Senate election, 2010
Polls are mixed on a potential matchup between Democratic Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano and McCain:

Poll Source Dates Administered Democrat: Janet Napolitano Republican: John McCain
Research 2000 October 28-30, 2008 53% 45%
Public Policy Polling July 30-31, 2008 43% 50%

Republican Congressman John Shadegg may also challenge McCain.<11>


Mel Martinez of Florida
Main article: Florida United States Senate election, 2010
Mel Martinez was elected in a very close contest against Democrat Betty Castor in 2004. Martinez is a former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in the Bush administration and chairman of the Republican National Committee for the 2007–2008 election cycle.


Johnny Isakson of Georgia
Main article: Georgia United States Senate election, 2010
Isakson has a 52% approval rating, with 36% disapproval.<12>

On May 8, 2008, Isakson announced that he would not run for governor and instead would run for reelection to the Senate.<13>


Mike Crapo of Idaho
Main article: United States Senate election in Idaho, 2010
Mike Crapo faced only token write-in opposition in 2004 after Idaho Democrats failed to produce a candidate before the filing deadline.


Chuck Grassley of Iowa
Main article: Iowa United States Senate election, 2010
Longtime Republican senator Chuck Grassley was the chair of the Senate Finance Committee until Democrats won control of the Senate in 2006. Grassley, who will be 77 in 2010 will have served five terms as a Senator.


Jim Bunning of Kentucky
Main article: Kentucky United States Senate election, 2010
Kentucky Republican and Baseball Hall of Famer Jim Bunning announced on December 11, 2007 to the Kentucky Post that he will seek a third term.<14> Bunning will be 79 in 2010.

One Democrat has already decided she will challenge Bunning: former U.S. Customs Agent Darlene Fitzgerald.<15>


David Vitter of Louisiana
Main article: Louisiana United States Senate election, 2010
David Vitter, Republican of Louisiana, was elected to the US Senate in 2004 over Democratic representative Chris John.


Kit Bond of Missouri
Main article: Missouri United States Senate election, 2010
Four-term Republican Kit Bond has announced he will seek reelection. Bond will be 71 in 2010.

Poll Source Dates Administered Republican: Kit Bond Democrat: Robin Carnahan
Public Policy Polling July 2-5, 2008 44% 42%
Poll Source Dates Administered Republican: Kit Bond Democrat: Susan Montee
Public Policy Polling July 2-5, 2008 47% 35%
Poll Source Dates Administered Republican: Kit Bond Democrat: Russ Carnahan
Public Policy Polling August 13-17, 2008 46% 43%
Poll Source Dates Administered Republican: Kit Bond Democrat: Dick Gephardt
Public Policy Polling August 13-17, 2008 44% 43%


Judd Gregg of New Hampshire
Main article: New Hampshire United States Senate election, 2010
Former governor and incumbent Senator Judd Gregg will seek another term.<16>


Richard Burr of North Carolina
Main article: North Carolina United States Senate election, 2010
Richard Burr was elected in 2004 with 52% of the vote over former White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles.<17>


George Voinovich of Ohio
Main article: Ohio United States Senate election, 2010
Moderate Republican, former Cleveland mayor, and former Governor George Voinovich has indicated that he will seek a third term.<18> Voinovich won both of his prior elections by comfortable margins. A November 2007 poll put his approval rating at 44%, with 46% disapproving.<19>

Possible Democrats who might run include state Treasurer Richard Cordray, former Congressional candidate Paul Hackett, and Representatives Tim Ryan, Dennis Kucinich, Betty Sutton, and Zack Space.

Poll Source Dates Administered Republican: George Voinovich Democrat: Tim Ryan
Public Policy Polling June 14-15, 2008 33% 33%
Poll Source Dates Administered Republican: George Voinovich Democrat: Betty Sutton
Public Policy Polling June 14-15, 2008 37% 32%
Poll Source Dates Administered Republican: George Voinovich Democrat: Jennifer Brunner
Public Policy Polling July 17-20, 2008 38% 42%
Poll Source Dates Administered Republican: George Voinovich Democrat: Mike Coleman
Public Policy Polling July 17-20, 2008 39% 37%
Poll Source Dates Administered Republican: George Voinovich Democrat: Lee Fisher
Public Policy Polling August 12-14, 2008 38% 40%
Poll Source Dates Administered Republican: George Voinovich Democrat: Frank Jackson
Public Policy Polling August 12-14, 2008 42% 32%


Tom Coburn of Oklahoma
Main article: Oklahoma United States Senate election, 2010
Tom Coburn was elected in 2004 by a 53% to 42% margin, running well behind President Bush's 66% showing.<17>

One prominent Democrat, Dan Boren says he will not challenge Coburn. <20> Kenneth Corn, appears to be looking at a possible run. <21>


Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania
Main article: Pennsylvania United States Senate election, 2010
Longtime moderate Republican Arlen Specter will be 80 in 2010. He announced on March 19, 2007 that he will seek a sixth term in 2010. The five-term Pennsylvanian, following the 2006 elections, lost his chairmanship of the powerful Senate Judiciary Committee.


Jim DeMint of South Carolina
Main article: South Carolina United States Senate election, 2010
Jim DeMint was elected in 2004 with 54 percent of the vote, defeating Democrat Inez Tenenbaum.<17>


John Thune of South Dakota
Main article: South Dakota United States Senate election, 2010
John Thune narrowly defeated Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle in 2004 with 51% of the vote.<9>


Bob Bennett of Utah
Main article: Utah United States Senate election, 2010
Former entrepreneur-turned-Republican-Senator Bob Bennett will have served three terms in the Senate and will be 77 in 2010.

[No Elephants]

1. that is going to depend entirely upon how well Obama and the next Congress do in 2009 and 2010.

[droidamus2]

2. Well

I agree that it will depend on how successful the Obama presidency and the Congressional houses do in the next two years. Like this year it appears that many more Republicans are up than Democrats and from what I saw most of the Democrats are fairly popular so there is every chance the Democrats could reach 60 as long as they don't screw things up any worse than they already are. It wouldn't surprise me if we see more Republican retirements in the next two years.

[Freddie Stubbs]

3. Governor Ed Rendell would be a strong opponent for Arlen Specter

[globalvillage]

9. I don't think Big Eddie will run for Senate.

He likes being the Gov. I think Joe Sestak and Chris Matthews are likely Dem candidates in PA.

[Freddie Stubbs]

11. He is term limited, so he cannot run for reelection in 2010

[globalvillage]

17. Hmmm...

Good point.
I can't see Rendell in the Senate. Maybe there's a post in the administration that would be a good fit?

[THUNDER HANDS]

4. 60? Hell, with that list its entirely possible we could reach 65 or 66

or better, depending on how Obama does.

[Romulox]

5. My guess is that 2010 will be another 1994. nt

[progressiveforever]

6. Probably not as bad as 1994, but Repugs are calculating revenge

We must be ready this time...and in 94, we rolled over and played dead.

[Romulox]

8. We're playing right into their hands by averaging out the differences between the Parties...

Rightwing Democrats invariably end up looking like weak-willed Republicans. The "Centrists" lead this Party into an 8 year wilderness, and they're desperate to keep us there.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

19. I don't see that.

Too few competitive races for that to happen this time around, unless things REALLY trend in the opposite direction. Let's not forget the underlying circumstances of 1994, however. At that time, we were trending conservative, but wound up with a Democratic president. Clinton's presence really revved up an already surging Republican party.

Today, the circumstances could not be more different. The country is now trending heavily progressive and the Republican party is soul-searching. I think we'll probably see a status quo in 2010.

[Marrah_G]

7. That depends on the next 2 years- We must NOT allow our side to screw this up.

[Marsala]

10. The good news is that our Senate seats are much safer than in 1994

The bad news is that we'll be lucky to have had the economy recovered by then sufficiently to help us; also, picking up a significant number of Senate seats in three elections in a row is (if I'm not mistaken) all but historically unheard of.

We'll probably break about even in the Senate. The House will be more volatile, but I doubt that we'll lose the majority, barring a disaster.

[ccharles000]

15. I agree

[kennetha]

12. Ecomomic Prognosticators say we may be in for a two year global recession

And despite the fact that the Repugnants are the culprits of this recession, the party in power if it is still going on will get very serious blame, even if the government in general and the president in particular is largely powerless to do anything about it.

So don't hold your breadth counting on huge gains in 2010.

[dccrossman]

13. To be cynical about it, depends on the cycle length

The cycle of going from the left to the right ran from about 94 to 2002. 2004 was a bit of a stretch to that cycle, due to the wars, and it pushed the pendulum pretty high.

This cycle of swinging back from conservative insanity, back toward far left liberal started in 2006 and I would think we can stretch it up to 2014. Of course, that depends on whether some crisis will change the pattern, but I don't think the current economic crisis counts. The blame for that has already been assigned.

The current bums only have to show progress and do sufficient PR to convince everyone that something is happening to maintain the swing.

Now, this is a completely cynical view.

My hope would be that with control of all three branches, and hopefully the ability to swing 3-4 Republicans on each issue, that we'll see such amazing progress that the question of, "Are you better now than 2/4 years ago?" will be easy to answer.

With the recession though, and global meltdowns, I'm just not going to hold my breath.

[kennetha]

14. Just like the news cycle is speeded up these days

So, I think, is the political cycle. Especially since a good number of Obama voters voted out of disgust with the status quo, rather than out of any deep ideological convictions, they probably remain highly shiftable. If things don't show measurable difference by 2010 -- which is a political eternity but not an economic eternity -- they will be willing to vote for yet another new direction in two years.

Nothing succeeds like success; nothing fails like failure.

[ej510]

16. If we do a good job and repukes move further to the right.

[Seen the light]

18. I prefer Grier Martin to Roy Cooper

Don't get me wrong, I like Roy Cooper, but I REALLY like Grier Martin.

[ccharles000]

20. Whoever it is I will support because Burr is an ass.

But I think Roy should run because he is well known and has won state wide.

[MadBadger]

21. That depends on how the next two years go.

[WI_DEM]

22. traditionally the party in power loses seats in the midterms, but it all depends on how things go.