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Edited on Fri Nov-07-08 11:25 AM by socialdemocrat1981
You left out Joe Biden's successor, who will probably be safe
Of course a lot of things depend on the national political/economic environment. But here goes:
Bayh, Evan- (D - IN) Class III
I would consider Bayh most likely to be safe if he chooses to run again. Mike Pence could be a strong challenger, as could John Hostettler, but I think Bayh would most likely retain his seat even if they were to enter the race. Re-elected Gov Mitch Daniels would also be a formidable challenger but I don't think he'll run (his term as Governor of Indiana expires in 2013, which would make for impeccable timing to either run for the Republican presidential nomination or to run to succeed Senator Lugar in the event that the latter chooses not to seek re-election)
Bennett, Robert F.- (R - UT) Class III
If he runs again, probably safe. If he retires, a Republican will almost certainly succeed him. Pete Ashdown or Jim Matheson would make formidable challengers but the GOP must be heavily favored here
Bond, Christopher S.- (R - MO) Class III (probably safe, but who knows?)
Could be taken down by a strong challenger I think Russell or Robin Carnahan could certainly prove formidable challengers to Senator Bond, although I'd still give Bond a slight edge
Boxer, Barbara- (D - CA) Class III
I'm pretty confident Arnold will run -he's term-limited and has nowhere else to go since he can't seek the presidency- and if he does, this will be one of the key races of this election cycle. If not and if Boxer fulfils her pledge to run again, she should be safe.
Brownback, Sam- (R - KS) Class III (Unless Sebelius runs here, perhaps, but still likely safe)
Brownback has pledged to retire. Sebelius could have a chance in an open seat race
Bunning, Jim- (R - KY) Class III
Extremely vulnerable if he runs again. Daniel Mongiardo, who made his name by almost defeating Bunning in 2004 and who is now Lt Governor, could run again. Rep Ben Chandler is another possibility. If the seat becomes open, Ann Northrup could run for the Republicans although she has lost three political races in the past two years. A tossup regarless of whether Bunning runs or not, IMO
Burr, Richard- (R - NC) Class III
Have no idea about this one but he probably could be vulnerable if Mike Easley, Brad Miller or Roy Cooper run for this seat
Coburn, Tom- (R - OK) Class III
Probably safe. Oklahoma Gov Brad Henry could give him a run for his money but he has indicated that he won't run.
Crapo, Mike- (R - ID) Class III
Most likely safe
DeMint, Jim- (R - SC) Class III
Most likely safe
Dodd, Christopher J.- (D - CT) Class III
If Senator Dodd runs again, he should be safe. If he retires, the race for this open seat oould become competitive if Christopher Shays or Gov Jodi Rell run on behalf of the GOP.
Dorgan, Byron L.- (D - ND) Class III
Will only be vulnerable if Gov John Hoeven decides to run. Even if he retires, I think this seat will lean Democratic again unless Hoeven decides to run. Karl Rove reportedly begged Hoeven to run against Senator Conrad in 2006 but he declined.
Feingold, Russell D.- (D - WI) Class III
Could be vulnerable in the event of a strong challenger. Unless ex-Gov Tommy Thompson runs, however, it is hard to see a formidable challenger emerging. And even if Thompson does run, I think Feingold has a relatively good chance of beating him.
Grassley, Chuck- (R - IA) Class III
Safe if he runs again, which apparently he has indicated that he will. But if not, the open senate seat is definitely a potential Democrati gain and especially so if former Governor Tom Vilsack enters the race
Gregg, Judd- (R - NH) Class III
I think Senator Gregg is a vulnerable incumbent if New Hampshire continues to trend blue. Gov John Lynch would be a formidable challenger and Reps Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter may also be potential candidates
Inouye, Daniel K.- (D - HI) Class III
Safe if he runs again. If not and Hawaii Governor Linda Lingle decides to run, this seat could be a tossup
Isakson, Johnny- (R - GA) Class III
There is apparently some peculation that Isakson will run for Governor. If he does so, this seat beomes vacant. I'd still favor the Republicans to hold this seat but it is possible that someone like Rep Jim Marshall could make this race competitive
Leahy, Patrick J.- (D - VT) Class III
Safe if he runs again. If he retires and Vermont Gov Jim Douglas or Lt Gov Brian Dubie gets into the race, the seat could be competitive
Lincoln, Blanche L.- (D - AR) Class III
If Huckabee runs, she could be very vulnerable. If not, I'd strongly favor her to retain this seat
Martinez, Mel- (R - FL) Class III
Very vulnerable incumbent IMO. A strong Democratic challenger could take him out, although I'm not sure who that could be
McCain, John- (R - AZ) Class III
If Gov Napolitano enters this race, it could become very competitive. If McCain runs again, I'd give him the edge even against Napolitano. If not, I think Napolitano would have a good chane of winning the seat
Mikulski, Barbara A.- (D - MD) Class III
Speculation is that Senator Mikulski will retire. If so, I think the Democratic Party would be favored to retain this seat. Former Gov Robert Ehrlich may make a formidable Republican challenger but I very much doubt he'd win
Murkowski, Lisa- (R - AK) Class III
If Alaska voters are so reluctant to boot convicted felon Ted Stevens, my take is that they are not going to boot Murkowski. She's already survived one close race and that was probably the best chance of taking her down
Murray, Patty- (D - WA) Class III
Could be vulnerable in the event of a strong challenge -perhaps Dave Reichert? -but I think she would have a slight edge here
Obama, Barack- (D - IL) Class III (Whomever is his replacement will be safe)
Free Republic keeps talking up Mike Ditka as though he's some sort of conservative hero but I tend to agree with your assessment
Reid, Harry- (D - NV) Class III
If he runs again, he would be vulnerable in the event of a strong challenge. Jon Porter could be a possibility and was reportedly being groomed for such an outcome. But he's lost his congressional seat now so his status as a rising star may be under question. Could be one to watch
Salazar, Ken- (D - CO) Class III
Could be vulnerable if ex-Gov Bill Owens runs. Otherwise probably safe
Schumer, Charles E.- (D - NY) Class III
Probably safe. Ex-Gov George Pataki could give Schumer a run for his money but I think Schumer would probably still have the edge. Guliani's star is fading and I think he'd probably lose to Schumer as well -besides he probably wants to keep his possibilities upon for a 2012 run
Shelby, Richard C.- (R - AL) Class III
Safe if he runs again. If he retires, I'd strongly favor the GOP to keep this seat especially if Gov Bob Riley runs. Lt Gov Jim Folsom and Rep Artur Davis are two potential Democratic contenders if the seat becomes open. But I think Folsom will run for Governor
Specter, Arlen- (R - PA) Class III
I am convinced that Specter will retire, whatever he says now. If so, this seat could be a tossup. Even if not, I do wonder whether the conservatives will target him like they did six years ago and possibly this time they succeed in defeating him in the primary. Part of the reason that Specter won his nomination challenge last time, I think, was because he had the backing of the Bush White House, which he will no longer have in 2010
Thune, John- (R - SD) Class III
If Stephanie Herseth Sandlin gets involved, this race could become competitive
Vitter, David- (R - LA) Class III
Unfortunately I give him the edge. The Democratic Party in Louisiana is supposedly in disarray and, since corruption and unethical conduct is prevalent in Louisiana politics, voters may be willing to excuse Vitter. The only person I could see giving Vitter a run for his money is Mitch Landrieu and he won't run because his sister is serving in the senate's other seat.
Voinovich, George V.- (R - OH) Class III
If he runs again, it's probably safe. If not, Demorats ould win depending on the candidate. Marcy Kaptur is a possible contender as is Tim Ryan
Wyden, Ron- (D - OR) Class III
Safe
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