Obama's election to the Presidency already impacting Iraq war policy

[ProSense]

Now That Obama’s Elected, Iraq Will Sign Basing Deal

By Spencer Ackerman 11/7/08 9:11 AM

Barely a week ago, the Iraqi government was refusing to sign a status of forces agreement with the U.S. military, despite the agreement’s guarantee of a full-scale troop withdrawal by 2011. Prominent Iraqi dignitaries were talking about scrapping the document entirely and securing another 12-month U.N. mandate for the occupation.

The discussion bogged down so much that Gen. Ray Odierno, the commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, practically threatened to take his toys and go home.

Then, on Tuesday, Barack Obama was elected president of the United States. And lo, the waters have parted. Reports The New York Times:

Barack Obama may have been elected only three days ago, but his victory is already beginning to shift the political ground in Iraq and the region.

Iraqi Shiite politicians are indicating that they will move faster toward a new security agreement about American troops, and a Bush administration official said he believed that Iraqis could ratify the agreement as early as the middle of this month.

“Before, the Iraqis were thinking that if they sign the pact, there will be no respect for the schedule of troop withdrawal by Dec. 31, 2011,” said Hadi al-Ameri, a powerful member of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, a major Shiite party. “If Republicans were still there, there would be no respect for this timetable. This is a positive step to have the same theory about the timetable as Mr. Obama.”

And Ameri is right. Sen. John McCain, when asked about the so-called SOFA, misrepresented its withdrawal guarantee on CNN. If you were an Iraqi negotiator and you heard the potential next president of the United States do that, why would you have any faith in your interlocutor? The blogger Swopa made this point in May.

OK, substantive comment: the agreement really does guarantee U.S. troop withdrawal by 2011 and U.S. withdrawal from Iraqi cities and towns by next spring. In other words, it ends the war, and ends it in stages.

Obama won’t be able to enter office with the Iraq problem solved. But it will be well on its way to being solved. The strategic framework for his desired withdrawal will be in place. And since he and the Iraqi government see eye to eye on the issue, Obama will have the credibility in place to work toward a political compact among the different Iraqi factions — something the Bush administration hasn’t ever had and a McCain administration wouldn’t ever have had.

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[ProSense]

1. No comment? n/t

[ProSense]

2. This must be causing RW heads to explode

If Obama does begin an orderly withdrawal from Iraq, and it does succeed in pressuring Iraq into resolving political differences, it's hard to overstate how massive a victory this would be for reality-based foreign policy sanity and how big a blow it would prove to GOP militarism, jingoism, and self-delusion.

link

[ProSense]

3. Obama and my Grandmother (great story posted at Democracy Arsenal)

Obama and my Grandmother

Posted by Shadi Hamid

My father called my grandmother in Cairo yesterday. He told me that she was very excited about Obama's victory, and that she said she was "praying for Obama." (In Arabic, it was even more striking. She used the verb da'a, which is translated as "to pray for," but more accurately means "to make a supplication for." Da'a is usually used in the context of praying for those who are most dear to you, sons, mothers, nephews, close friends).

Keep in mind that my grandmother doesn't speak a word of English, and that she almost never talks about politics, except in the context of telling other people not to talk about it. But she's thrilled about Obama. You've all heard these stories before, but there's still something amazing, to me at least, about an Egyptian cheering for an American president (God, who would have thought!). What a reversal. After 8 years of seeing the U.S. as an enemy, after seeing our country as the source of so many of their problems, (some) Arabs and Muslims are willing to believe again. This is not totally surprising. It always seemed to me that their "hate" for America was always a function of the fact that they held us to a higher standard, and that they felt personally betrayed. When a prominent Muslim Brotherhood activist told my colleague Steven Brooke that he had a giant American flag up on his wall when was a teenager, I wasn't that surprised. I knew why he had it up.

But the fact that people are willing to give us a chance again, means that we will once again be subject to great, and greater expectations. This can be a good thing. But it also can a bad thing, if we fail to meet them, or, worse, if we fail to try.

In his victory speech on Tues., Senator Kerry spoke of being in Egypt and Syria recently. He said people were captivated by Obama's campaign.

[ProSense]

4. New Army Recruiting Tactic: Obama will "Get Us Out of Iraq"

New Army Recruiting Tactic: Obama will "Get Us Out of Iraq"

by: Brandon Friedman
Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 02:49:04 AM EST

Well that didn't take long. Polls across America had been closed for less than 24 hours and Army Career Counselors were already exploiting Barack Obama's victory in an effort to recruit former soldiers back into units. This email was forwarded to me by an Iraq veteran and former Army captain who received it on Wednesday:



The relevant text says:

24 Month Mobilization Deferment. A President Elect who says he'll get us out of Iraq. What are you waiting for? Stop taking your chance's in the IRR and be safe from deployment for 2 years. By that time our new President will have gotten us out of these other countries.

<…>

So has this career counselor simply gone "rogue" on us? Or is this going to be the new method by which the Army attracts soldiers into--and back into--the ranks? Leaving aside for a moment the fact that the recruiter is making a promise he knows he can't keep, I'll be honest: I'd be lying if I said the prospect of an Obama administration hadn't made me consider the possibility of rejoining. So, in essence, this career counselor has probably just taken a logical, reasonable step.

But larger questions become immediately apparent: Was this career counselor told to use this tactic by his chain of command or not? Is this going to be a shift in recruiting Army-wide? Is the Army going to use President Obama as a recruiting tool? If so, this would symbolize a stunning--if not totally rational--renunciation of the Bush administration and its handling of the military. If this becomes an Army policy, it represents a true "ding-dong the witch is dead" moment for the service.

We'll be watching this closely to see if other, higher-ranking officers make similar statements. Because it's a fact that many of them have been eagerly awaiting this moment to begin the rebuilding process.

[Aloha Spirit]

5. Huh, I was right! Have been saying this would happen. Thanks for the link prosense.

[Stevepol]

6. Wonderful!