Who will be the first SCOTUS justice to retire?

[EconomicLiberal]

And when?

I say John Paul Stevens and 2/1/09.

[Wapsie B]

1. I would hope Clarence Thomas.

[slampoet]

27. Thomas will only leave when the grim reaper sez it's time.

He even tells people he works out specifically just to spend longer on the bench.

[MadMaddie]

40. He sleeps on the bench so it's not like he is working on anything.

[backscatter712]

2. I hope Scalia.

He's getting long in the tooth, so here's hoping his seat's vacated soon...

[Morrisons Ghost]

5. He's 68

Remember Rehnquist was 80!

[backscatter712]

11. Actually, Scalia's 72.

Though if Murphy's Law holds out, he'll live for forty more years and stay in the Supreme Court as long as Strom Thurmond stayed in the Senate...

[Bucky]

28. Well 72 isn't very old by Scotus standards.

Plus drinking the blood of children can add years to your life--Scalia's going nowhere.

[Hawkeye-X]

3. Unfortunately it will be Judge Stevens

He has hung on, despite his ailment and deserves a rewarding retirement.

Next is probably Ginsburg or Scalia.

[Goblinmonger]

4. No frickin way

Scalia lets Obama pick his replacement. Scalia will let someone wear him as a skin-suit after dies before letting a liberal take his seat. Evil fuck.

[fizzgig]

7. yup

[jerryster]

25. Agreed.

Scalia will die in that seat first. Anyway, I have to think Stevens is next.

[LiberalFighter]

13. That is fine. It will mean that their replacment will be younger and be around longer.

[FKA MNChimpH8R]

23. Justice Stevens has toughed it out for one reason: Chimp v. Gore.

His dissent was a tsunami of cogent legal reasoning and justified moral outrage. The ONLY reason he is still on the SCOTUS is that he was determined to outlast the Chimp unless someone tied a toe tag on him. Justice Stevens has been a superb servant of his country and a courageous guardian of the Constitution and the rights it enshrines for the last 33 years. :patriot:

He deserves to now be able to retire and enjoy a long, healthy and happy retirement, knowing that the choice for his seat on the court is in the capable hands of Barack Obama.

[fizzgig]

6. i'm wondering if it won't be ruth bader ginsburg

i don't know when, but we owe her a lot for hanging in there

[rvablue]

8. It'll be Ginsberg....

that tough old dame wanted to retire years ago and held on because of W's reelection.....in a couple of months she can rest easy that her retirement will not hurt the country for generations.

[Goblinmonger]

12. I think it is going to be a close call.

Ginsberg really wants off, but Stevens is pretty sickly.

[justiceischeap]

22. Didn't Ginsberg have cancer or something?

I remember her being sick but hanging on for a Dem president.

[Faygo Kid]

36. Yes, and Stevens is old, but healthy. Ginsburg first.

Stevens and Kennedy the next two.

[leftynyc]

9. Stevens

I'm surprised he hasn't announced yet. I expect that 5 minutes after President-elect Obama is sworn in.

[hvn_nbr_2]

10. Maybe we should all pray for Scalia and Thomas to be "removed" by God's will.

Oh, dang, that won't work. God is on their side. But on the other hand, God sent Caribou Barbie back to Alaska on election day. Wow, it sure seems confusing to be God these days.

[LiberalFighter]

14. Very few of the justices died while in office.

Many of them retired.

The repugs just need to be pushed out even if it means dragging their sorry asses out in back.

[secondwind]

15. there will be two Justices who will want to retire, and they are both

Democrat appointees.

Won't happen til later in first term, or early in second. They never retire so quickly after a new election.

[rdmtimp]

24. Stevens was appointed by Gerald Ford n/t

[Bucky]

30. And approved 98-0 by a 63-37 Democratic Senate

[HughBeaumont]

16. Hopefully it's fucking Scabia.

Piece of garbage.

[Dulcinea]

17. Hillary for SCOTUS!

Wouldn't saying "Justice Clinton" just make the fundies crap their pants?

[yellowcanine]

20. What about Hillary AND Bill? Any law against that? I don't think so.

They are both well qualified.

[AZ Criminal JD]

35. Clinton flunked the DC bar exam

She would be tough to get on the court.

[quiller4]

18. We are likely to see 2 retirements quickly

Stevens and Ginsberg

[onenote]

19. I doubt we'll see any retirements until the spring or summer.

This SCOTUS term has begun and will run until late June. I wouldn't expect any resignations until the term is essentially done; the resignation will come in spring or summer to allow time for a replacement to be confirmed by the beginning of the next SCOTUS term in October 2009.

[galaxy21]

21. I think Anthony Kennedy wants to go

He's probably tired of being the swing vote all the time.

I don't know if he's against being replaced by a liberal, though. Most judges only like to leave if they know they're going to be replaced by someone with similar political positions.

[Unsane]

26. tired of being the swing vote? Ha!

It's basically HIS court right now. If you're arguing before the SCOTUS, you're addressing your brief and argument SOLELY to Justice Kennedy. Why would he ever get tired of that?? He'll hang on as long as he can.

Obama will get 2 picks (Stevens and Ginsburg), with an outside shot that Scalia croaks, or one of the the moderates (Breyer and Souter) retires (which would make 3-4 picks).

But the actually ideological make-up of the court will not change unless a conservative/swing vote leaves. Replacing Stevens and Ginsburg w/solid liberals essentially just preserves the status quo into the future.

[galaxy21]

31. Kennedy pissed off a lot of conservatives when changed his mind on roe versus wade in 1992

He's feeling the heat on both sides these days.

[Unsane]

32. He isn't feeling anything, except ass kissing during oral arguments

It's a life-tenured position. He feels "heat" from no man.

[jerryster]

33. Preserving the status quo...

... is what gives me comfort in the short run. Obama will pick justices to keep the balance and we can all hope that Scalia and/or Thomas decide that they need to move out of the country.

[backscatter712]

34. Thomas and Scalia might be replaced.

Thomas is currently 60, though there's plenty of precedent for him to keep going until '16, when he'll be 68.

Scalia's the most likely conservative justice to retire - he's 72 right now, and he'll be 80 in 8 years (let's hope Obama gets two terms, knock on wood...)

But yeah, Stevens and Ginsberg are the most likely to be replaced, but replacing them with new liberal justices just keeps things as they are.

[Unsane]

38. Thomas is still relatievly young, but neither he nor Scalia look like health nuts.

I'd be surprised if Thomas retired/died in the next 8 years.

[Unsane]

29. Stevens, and it will be at the conclusion of the current term (around June).

[Independent_Voice]

37. My prediction

First retirement will be Stevens in early-2009, and Obama will nominate Sonia Sotomayor to replace him. Sotomayor will be confirmed by a huge majority in the U.S. Senate, making her the first Latina woman to serve on the Court.

Ginsburg will be the next to go sometime before 2012, then Kennedy (although perhaps not until Obama's second term, assuming Obama is reelected).

At least one of the two replacements for Ginsburg and/or Kennedy will be a second woman (in addition to Sotomayor). Dollars to doughnuts that one of the potential three appointees is black (male or female) and another is of Asian descent (again, either male or female).

Is it evil of me to hope that Alito gets hit by a DC metro bus on his way to work one morning leading up to the 2010 midterms?

[Unsane]

41. You're right about Sotomayor. She's a shoe-in.

And it will be very hard for the GOP to block her.

The real fight is going to be with the various circuit vacancies.

[Unsane]

39. As far as replacements go: women, women, women.

They live longer and are more likely to be progressive.