Election demographics, maps & questions about 2010

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http://political-zazen.blogspot.com/

I've posted a ton of maps and commentary there.

I have to warn my fellow DU'rs that aspects of my observations may seem "negative," because in looking carefully at the turn-out dynamics and at the details of the demographics... I'm now of the sobering opinion that we have not seen a massive ideological shift. I think we are in the midst of one, but I think what we've seen this year is a massive mood swing and an intensification of opinion.

I think we're re-adjusting back to a pre-2000 center which is great, but I think this poses questions for what's coming next.

* We've seen 2 back-to-back mega-gains for Dems in Congress. Can we really expect another in 2010? Is there room for more areas to shift purple-blue or are we "stuck" in the current demographic breakdowns and going to just see shifts in intensity?

* What would it take for more areas to swing purple-blue?

* What is driving the intensity of the red bubbles? The "culture wars" pro-USA identity? Fear? A sense of "war" patriotism?

* How easily can the mood swing back to the 2004 intensity and leanings?

* Were the ads that ran in those "red shift" areas particularly different from those seen elsewhere?

I think we've seen a massive mood swing and the shaking up of identities. There are many opportunities ahead, and risks.

I believe the 1994 Culture War Coalition has collapsed for the conservatives. We don't know exactly what's next for them. On the flip side, we have to ask what the nature of the progressives' coalition and identity will look like in 4 or 8 years.

See this write-up at Huffington's Post for http://www.huffingtonpost.com/arianna-huffington/tuesdays-second-biggest-w_b_142102.html">more interesting exit polling data. You can see there that the electorate was 74% white, down from 81% in 2000. Minorities stepped up in turn-out and voted heavily for Obama. Perhaps this is the most important feature of a new progressive coalition in America? Does this mood swing reflect a strong ideological rejection of the Culture Wars? I believe so.

[Essene]

1. this is useful for those thinking we have a massive ideological mandate