Why Franken will win a recount

[Hokie]

It was no accident that Norm Coleman rushed to court to try to preempt a recount in the tight Minnesota senate race. He is afraid that Al Franken will win a recount and he is right to be afraid. Here's why:

Franken trails by 221 votes. When the conducted the ballots will be counted by humans and not by an optical scanner. A knowledgeable election official in Minnesota has said that on average 2 to 3 ballots per 1000 are not counted by the optical scanners but would be counted when a human examines them. There are several reasons for this. For example, if a person makes a check mark by the name instead of filling in the box the machine will not count the vote but Minnesota law explicitly says the vote must be counted because the intent of the voter is clear. the same is true if the voter writes the name instead of filling in the box. The vote counts. If the voter justs puts a dot in the box the vote counts. I read the Minnesota guide for conducting recounts today. It is well written and leaves little room for doubt on how to judge the ballots. This will not be another Florida 2000.

Now for the math. There were 2.86 million votes cast in the election. If the valid, uncounted ballots follow past history there will be at least 0.002 X 2.86 million = 5720 valid uncounted ballots. Franken needs to get 222 more of these than Coleman to win. That means if Franken pulls just 4% more of the uncounted votes than Coleman he is the winner. There is anecdotal evidence that more of these under votes are from counties that Franken won. They under vote in the Senate race compared with the Presidential race is 25,000 and more of this under vote is from counties won by Franken. The under vote suggests that the number of uncounted votes in the Senate race may be more than 9,000 and closer to 20,000. If that were true than Franken only needs to win by 2% over Coleman.

For these reasons I think Franken could well be the next Senator from Minnesota when all the votes are counted. Sit back and enjoy because this race is far from over and it may take until December before we know the real winner.

On edit: I should have added that the final polls had Franken with a slight advantage. This is further reason to believe Franken will win the recount.

[Curtland1015]

1. I'm sure when the recount is done, Coleman will do the "right thing" and bow out without a fuss.

Just like he wanted Franken to do...

:eyes:

[dflprincess]

17. Norman do the right thing?

That would be a first.

He ran to court not only in an attempt to surpress votes but also as part of an effort to somehow taint this whole process - which will make him look justified when this gets dragged into the courts should he lose the recount. I hear on the local progressive station today that Norm knows exactly how the current audit process works and that errors are found. In 2002 during this process they said Normie picked up a few thousand votes between the time election night totals were announced and the final totals were certified a couple weeks later.

Norm is scared to death that he's going to lose this and the weasel will use any tactic out of the 2000 GOP playbook to keep his seat.

[ccharles000]

2. I hope al wins.

[CatWoman]

3. what officials will be looking for during recount

http://www.startribune.com/newsgraphics/34067234.html?elr=KArksUUUU

[Hokie]

4. Good job CatWomen

Those illustrations are from the recount guide I read. Thank goodness for paper ballots.

[CatWoman]

5. *bows*

:)

:hi:

[Hokie]

7. CatWoman, have you been around since 2001, also?

Remember those dark days after 2000? I think I found DU pretty early. I used to hang around the alt.impeach.bush newsgroup. I found DU and have been here ever since.

[CatWoman]

9. yep

I was so dejected, hurt, angry - and I found DU via a Will Pitt article on Truthout.

Also The Smirking Chimp. Wow!! That takes me back :)

Been a part of the family ever since :hug:

[spanone]

6. k&r

[Strelnikov_]

8. I agree. Since Al was not dumb enough to bow out as Numbnut Norm wanted

Numbnut Norm is now trying to use the legal system to effectively stop the recount.

[elocs]

10. I hope Franken wins, but the sad thing is how people can mess up the most simple voting process.

Fill in the oval--how simple and straightforward can those kind of instructions be? Here in Wisconsin you connect the lines by the candidate's name: - -, but some do this: -X- or they circle the candidate's name. When it comes to foolproof methods of voting, nothing is perfect, but at least with paper ballots counted by optical scan it is easy to do a recount and to determine voter intent.

[busymom]

13. This was my thought too.....

Seriously...the directions are so clear on our ballots here in MN....Fill in the bubble...just like we did all through school. How is that hard?

[Eric J in MN]

23. Some people graduated from high school before optical-scan ballots...

...became common.

[elshiva]

11. K&R I hope Franken wins.

[usregimechange]

12. Thanks for the analysis

[MarthaMyDear]

14. Thanks for this update!

I heard Al Franken on Sirius Left radio this week, he sounds really optimistic and was joking about how he and his wife were marking November 5th as the day they'd be talking about recount...he was surprised when this really happened!


Franken 2008! :)

[Left Is Write]

15. What is it with guys named Al and recounts?

I hope you are correct! I can't wait to send Normie Coleman packing.

[Eric J in MN]

22. Al Franken was in Florida during the 2000 recount.

Al Gore was in Minnesota to endorse Al Franken in October:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mgpbGwozIJ0

[jesus_of_suburbia]

16. I hope you're right. Every Dem win gives me that much more hope for our country.

[FKA MNChimpH8R]

18. We're good at doing elections up here

That stoic Scandihoovian/German ethic makes us unafraid of the manual labor of counting ballots by hand. Most of the questionable ballots were in areas that went heavily for Obama, which is also encouraging. Dollars to donuts Franken wins the recount.

[seaker]

19. Lucky

Minnesota...to have him as their Senator, and the rest of the nation is lucky too! Good to be us

[Zombie2]

20. Limpballs head will explode....

If not, will he run next???

Palin/Limpballs 2012

[Awsi Dooger]

21. I'd rather be ahead than behind at this point

I understand the logic of the OP. But in this case there isn't a stash of uncounted votes from a specific area, similar to what bailed out Gregoire in the 2004 Washington recount. It's a 3-way race and we're counting on one specific candidate to benefit by more than 200 net among an undetermined number of ballots that may or may not contain an attempted vote.

I'm hopeful, but make no mistake, the betting favorite at this point would be Coleman.

In fact, DUers may not realize that betting is still open on the 3 senate races on Intrade.

These are the respective rounded odds at this point:

* Alaska -- Stevens slight favorite, roughly 53-47 (big move on Begich today, Stevens dropping from 80% range)

* Georgia -- Chambliss 85%, Martin 15%

* Minnesota -- Coleman 64%, Franken 36%

[LisaL]

25. It can go either way.

[WillyT]

24. Big K & R !!!

:kick:

:woohoo:

:evilgrin:

:hi: