Obama coming in with a bad economy makes his chances of re-election great.

[Zynx]

I've been thinking through the history on this one and things look pretty good for Barack Obama in the macro sense. If a president comes in with a lousy economy, their job is somewhat easier in getting re-elected than presidents who come in with a strong economy. Think about presidential history. Clinton comes in with an economy that was quite weak and was easily re-elected, Reagan came in with a weak economy and was easily re-elected, Nixon came in with an economy that soon went into recession and was re-elected by a landslide, FDR came in during the Depression and won a historic landslide, and McKinley came in during a depression and was easily re-elected.

There are few instances of presidents coming in at a time where the economy is lousy who do not succeed in being re-elected. The reason is that no matter how deep the morass the economy tends to recover noticeably by four years later and the people are grateful for it, whether the president deserves it(FDR) or not(Reagan).

[FreakinDJ]

1. My 401K guy has HIGH HOPEs for an Obama economy

[THUNDER HANDS]

2. be wary of predictions

there are a LOT of x-factors that go into a re-election.

Foreign policy events.
Who the opposition party nominates.
The effectiveness of the current president.

Clinton won re-election against the second-worst candidate the GOP has put up in the last 25 years (McCain being the worst). Had he run against Powell, things might have been different.

Carter had a sinking economy, but it was the hostage crisis in Iran that really did him in - as well as a steller GOP candidate who ran against him.

Nixon ran against McGovern, 'nuff said.

FDR had WWII on his side, which wasn't forseen when he was elected.

Things happen we can't predict, and it doesn't all hinge on the economy.

[Zynx]

3. Your counterpoints did not refute a single one of mine.

That was asymmetry.