There Are Eight Senators That Won In 2004 By 10 Points Or Less

[THUNDER HANDS]

and seven of them are Republicans.

Alaska , (R) Murkowski won by 3%
Colorado, (D) Salazar won by 4%
Florida, (R) Martinez won by 1%
Kentucky, (R) Bunning won by 2%
North Carolina, (R) Burr won by 5%
Pennsylvania, (R) Specter won by 9%
South Carolina, (R) DeMint won by 10%
South Dakota, (R) Thune won by 2%


Which means, by my calculation, that there are eight big states we're going to be concentrating on in the 2010 midterms.

At least 6 of them we have a good chance of either picking up and/or holding on to.

Which, in case my math is wrong, would put us well over the 60 needed to have a supermajority.


So maybe it would be best to wait two years before that whole Universal Health Care thing comes up for a vote, until we can solidify our Senate side.

[Eric J in MN]

1. self-delete NT

NT

[PermanentRevolution]

2. I would love to get rid of Mel Martinez

I'd say it's doable, as well, if this year is any indicator.

[THUNDER HANDS]

3. if Obama has a half-way decent first year

and makes some modest improvements in the economy and on the war, there's no reason we can't increase our senate majority to at least 62 or 63 seats.

[EconomicLiberal]

12. The only reason he is in the Senate is because of W's coattails in 2004.

It would be nice to see him get the boot.

[PBS Poll-435]

16. Very true. Castor out-perfomed Kerry that year.

[Coexist]

27. Alex Sink for Senate!

[ColbertWatcher]

4. Good point! We still have work to do! n/t

[Hippo_Tron]

5. You have to watch retirements and trends, though

I think Salazar is probably safe given the increasingly blue nature of Colorado. DeMint is also probably safe. If Stephanie Herseth wants to go up aganst Thune she'd have a shot but I think she will wait until Johnson retires. Murkowski should be vulnerable but Democrats can't seem to catch a break in Alaska. Martinez, Bunning, and Burr could be vulnerable depending on who we can put up against them. Specter would probably be safe if he ran again but I think he's on his way out.

[Eric J in MN]

6. Senator Judd Gregg (R-NH) won in a landslide in 2004, but...

...that doesn't mean we can't win NH in 2010 with the right candidate.

The state is more Democratic now than it was then.

[Not the Only One]

24. We better hope Lynch wants to be a Senator.

Yes, NH is a blue state, but there aren't many politicians in this state that have the name ID they'd need to challenge Judd Gregg. Shaheen was one, but she's already been chosen.

[ccharles000]

7. If Dole went down Burr will get his ass kicked.

[RollWithIt]

8. Depends on who we run... It's really a shame that Edwards couldn't keep the D in his pants...

He'd be a lock.

[Eric J in MN]

10. If John Edwards wants to be a Senator, again,

...then he could start out with a TV ad apologizing his infidelity.

Bill Clinton said in a talk-show appearance in 1992 that he's caused pain in his marriage as Hillary Clinton sat besides him, and he went on to become president.

[PBS Poll-435]

15. Geraldo, right?

nt

[Eric J in MN]

17. To Steve Kroft of 60 Minutes

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/special/clinton/stories/flowers012792.htm

[PBS Poll-435]

18. Thanks for the transcript

[ccharles000]

13. I think Roy Cooper should run.

He is very popular.

[Thrill]

19. Easley or AG Cooper are likely to run against him. Burr will be beaten soundly by both

[WhiteTara]

9. I hope our party gets another Dr. Dean

as DNC Chairman. There is always another election cycle and we have to keep up the momentum.

[Eric J in MN]

11. How about Joe Trippi? NT

NT

[PBS Poll-435]

14. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin for Senate!

Take back Daschule's seat!

[Thrill]

20. Thune is Obama's basketball buddy. Wonder if he will campaign against him. lol

[ProgressiveEconomist]

21. K&R. There's good news on the Democratic side too--the 15 Ds up in 2010 all

appear to be rock-solid big names, unlike many of the 19 Rs. Several of those Rs can start to be threatened right now by 527s targeting every obstructionist vote for retribution (with public service ads) and by aggressive DNC slating of opposition candidates.

From http://www.senate.gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm.cfm?Class=3 :

(D - IN) Bayh, Evan
(D - CA) Boxer, Barbara
(D - CT) Dodd, Christopher J.

(D - ND) Dorgan, Byron L.
(D - WI) Feingold, Russell D.
(D - HI) Inouye, Daniel K.

(D - VT) Leahy, Patrick J.
(D - AR) Lincoln, Blanche L.
(D - MD) Mikulski, Barbara A.

(D - WA) Murray, Patty
(D - IL) OPEN--Obama
(D - NV) Reid, Harry

(D - CO) Salazar, Ken
(D - NY) Schumer, Charles E.
(D - OR) Wyden, Ron

--------------------------------

(R - UT) Bennett, Robert F.
(R - MO) Bond, Christopher S.
(R - KS) Brownback, Sam

(R - KY) Bunning, Jim
(R - NC) Burr, Richard
(R - OK) Coburn, Tom

(R - ID) Crapo, Mike
(R - SC) DeMint, Jim
(R - IA) Grassley, Chuck

(R - NH) Gregg, Judd
(R - GA) Isakson, Johnny
(R - FL) Martinez, Mel

(R - AZ) McCain, John
(R - AK) Murkowski, Lisa
(R - AL) Shelby, Richard C.

(R - PA) Specter, Arlen
(R - SD) Thune, John
(R - LA) Vitter, David

(R - OH) Voinovich, George V.

[twistedliberal]

22. Dorgan in ND...

Will be under heavy attack. There's already talk about Hoeven (popular Repuke gov who just won in a landslide) running against Dorgan.

ND showed no signs of moving left this year. Dorgan's popular, but I expect with oil revenues and a budget surplus it will be a tough race for him if Hoeven challenges him.

[TheDonkey]

23. Spector, Thune, and Martinez would be great pickups.

[PBS Poll-435]

25. LOL at the prospect of a Spector pickup

You do know that it will probably be Tweety, right?

Fine by me, but he is not very popular among some around here...

[Awsi Dooger]

26. Many of those don't figure to be competitive

* Alaska -- Knowles won't run again. If Begich loses, he might try to oust Murkowski but that would be more unlikely than defeating Stevens after the conviction

* Kentucky -- Bunning was in self-destruct mode in 2004. In a midterm with a Democratic president, the natural terrain figures to boost the GOP so wins in deep red states are extremely unlikely

* South Carolina -- DeMint is now an incumbent, not an open race like 2004. In fact, that variable is missing from the OP. Those were open races in many instances, like Florida. Much more difficult to oust an incumbent. We may underrate that based on '06 and '08 in Democratic leaning cycles.

* South Dakota -- again, Thune is now an incumbent. It was close in '04 only because he defeated our incumbent, Daschle.

Pennsylvania and North Carolina have big potential, at first glance. I haven't really studied it.

[ROh70]

28. Take down MCCAIN in 2010. Payback for the slime he threw at Obama.